March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

6z NAM coming in colder for the coast

Is it still showing a hit n and w like earlier?

Or a sharp cutoff

Through 17 so far a very sharp cutoff

Nam is a big hit

Doesnt look so sharp to me

2004blackwrx wrote:Doesnt look so sharp to me

Its not big hit still for the area

It’s sharp to the NW in the Hudson valley

Still going at hour 25. This goes until early morning Thursday long duration

Hi res is a syo to alex to Scott special lol

What happen with the Euro?

Both those models show long island as a winner. Do we have a consensus

Alex my man good morning. You confident we both get a foot?

Upton just came out with their 4 am update and increased amounts for LI while decreasing elsewhere

[i]HOLY CRAP. Upton went higher with totals!

Goodnight im turning the nightshift watch over to the day guys who know what they are doing. Radar shows snow still nothing here

Haha 12 to 18 with locally higher thats good to hear too bad irs not from albany

syosnow94 wrote:Upton just came out with their 4 am update and increased amounts for LI while decreasing elsewhere

They increased for Northeastern NJ, Westchester County, Fairfield County and Metro NYC too.

I thought the radar looked good but upon closer inspection for my area it looks like it’s all moving west of me and over the ocean there’s very little. Going to bed for an hour or two I’ll be back

It looks like mid-Hudson is not where the party is at. Look at Passaic County. Jackpotting there? Seems like the storm is definitely banging Westchester, CT. Here the temps are 33 degrees at 4:45 am and nothing going on yet.

Wow nws upped my wsw again 12 to 18 locally higher wahoo!!! And still no blizzard warnings come on nws this kinda snow and those 850 winds warrants it. Even u frank felt coast should b in one.

Everybody needs to calm down lol based on my observations from yesterday (posted somewhere amongst these threads) I see no reason to panic, as my present analysis of radar, WV, and current conditions seem to support them strongly still. The HRRR looks good to me overall, though I think ALL modeling is still largely undergoing the northwestern progression of the precipitation shield, which is already well north and west of suites like the EURO. The orientation of our parent mid-level lows, WHICH ARE STILL IN THE OHIO VALLEY, argues for the northwestern extent of the current banding on radar to continue pressing northwestward for a while before halting progression. Northern Wayne county into Susquehanna County Pa seems like a decent pivot point for the back edge of precip that orients at a ~"7-2" angle (referencing a clock). Once that happens, expect precip to begin filling in to its southeast as the mid-level systems begin their incremental eastward progression during the day, and bring strong forcing with them. What we are seeing right now is forcing being created by diffluent/divergent flow aloft in the pva region downstream of large scale trough axis. No other true dynamics are really being tapped yet so what we are seeing right is a bonus. The mean flow is continuing to back, and is now being directed with a partial easterly component, which will further increase moisture transport and thermal advections as time goes. Give it time, folks.

Additionally, my analysis of WV imagery leads me to believe that our parent mid-level lows have gained a little more latitude than what guidance was suggesting which bodes well for us. Instead of exiting off of Virginia's latitude it would seem that the Delmarva would make more sense here, which is PERFECT FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR FORUM. TRUST EYES NOT MODELS. MODELS HAVE BEEN USELESS SINCE LAST NIGHT. Back to bed now lol

The models I no likey 10 inches on nam that's low for what's being forecasted , and heard euro was really bad? Where is nws get these high numbers from?

SoulSingMG wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Upton just came out with their 4 am update and increased amounts for LI while decreasing elsewhere

They increased for Northeastern NJ, Westchester County, Fairfield County and Metro NYC too.

they sure did dunno what syo talking bout. I saw a couple flakes but nothing of significance you have full on snow over there already,?

jmanley32 wrote:The models I no likey 10 inches on nam that's low for what's being forecasted , and heard euro was really bad? Where is nws get these high numbers from?

They are probably looking at current observations and upper levels. Read RB's post.

Mt Holly made some big decreases as they put me under a foot lol