March Madness! Spring Snowstorm Observations

jmanley32 wrote:The models I no likey 10 inches on nam that's low for what's being forecasted , and heard euro was really bad? Where is nws get these high numbers from?

rb924119 wrote:Everybody needs to calm down lol based on my observations from yesterday (posted somewhere amongst these threads) I see no reason to panic, as my present analysis of radar, WV, and current conditions seem to support them strongly still. The HRRR looks good to me overall, though I think ALL modeling is still largely undergoing the northwestern progression of the precipitation shield, which is already well north and west of suites like the EURO. The orientation of our parent mid-level lows, WHICH ARE STILL IN THE OHIO VALLEY, argues for the northwestern extent of the current banding on radar to continue pressing northwestward for a while before halting progression. Northern Wayne county into Susquehanna County Pa seems like a decent pivot point for the back edge of precip that orients at a ~"7-2" angle (referencing a clock). Once that happens, expect precip to begin filling in to its southeast as the mid-level systems begin their incremental eastward progression during the day, and bring strong forcing with them. What we are seeing right now is forcing being created by diffluent/divergent flow aloft in the pva region downstream of large scale trough axis. No other true dynamics are really being tapped yet so what we are seeing right is a bonus. The mean flow is continuing to back, and is now being directed with a partial easterly component, which will further increase moisture transport and thermal advections as time goes. Give it time, folks.

Additionally, my analysis of WV imagery leads me to believe that our parent mid-level lows have gained a little more latitude than what guidance was suggesting which bodes well for us. Instead of exiting off of Virginia's latitude it would seem that the Delmarva would make more sense here, which is PERFECT FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR FORUM. TRUST EYES NOT MODELS. MODELS HAVE BEEN USELESS SINCE LAST NIGHT. Back to bed now lol

syosnow94 wrote:Alex my man good morning. You confident we both get a foot?

aiannone wrote:Upton:
Colder and
drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and
lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate
slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and
perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit,
and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a
changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air
will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens.


Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow
commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13
to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior.

The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well
NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across
those locations.

aiannone wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:Alex my man good morning. You confident we both get a foot?

10-12” isolated 14” is a good bet for now until we see where the banding sets up

billg315 wrote:I don’t see any big shift. Not that models matter much at this stage. 6z GFS and NAM and latest HRRR don’t seem to me to have any major changes. They all show a snowstorm over the entire area (early sleet/mix at Jersey shore) today and tonight with close to a foot of snow widespread.

billg315 wrote:As for jackpot zones, GFS actually moves it slightly west over eastern PA/NW NJ. The NAM has it from NYC across LI. Either way I think model snow maps aren’t great at pinpointing jackpots anyway so that we won’t know until the heavy bands set up this afternoon.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

billg315 wrote:As for jackpot zones, GFS actually moves it slightly west over eastern PA/NW NJ. The NAM has it from NYC across LI. Either way I think model snow maps aren’t great at pinpointing jackpots anyway so that we won’t know until the heavy bands set up this afternoon.

Bingo! With every ensuing model run that comes out, it gives a different depiction of snow totals depending where the heavier snow bands setup. Thats the reason for the panic and joy in this forum. We just have to wait till this afternoon how things will shake down. One things for sure, someone is going to get clobbered. Hopefully it will be most of us. Going to work now.