May 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sun May 20, 2018 3:13 pm

I'm starting to see some pretty stout resemblances to Harvey from last year with the development of our upcoming tropical cyclone in the Gulf. Not to the same strength, but the stagnation and duration; very similar evolution showing up here from what I can recall of last year and only at quick glances of modeling, but maybe somebody can confirm or dismiss this observation.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Mon May 21, 2018 10:07 pm

AND HERE. WE. GOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!



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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu May 24, 2018 4:16 pm

A distinct low level center of circulation can be seen over land now.  (within the yellow circle).  NHC has very high probability for trop development within the next 2-5days, however, only slow development is likely once the LLC moves out over open waters of the GOM over the next 2days.   There is currently very strong wind shear(blue arrows) west to east to the north of the system that will likely inhibit any rapid intensification.  Unless the shear drops off significantly anything beyond a TD or weak TS is not likely. Even that may not develop if the wind shear does not diminish some.  Notice the higher cloud tops are well east of the LLC as a result of the shear(black circle).






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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Thu May 24, 2018 4:20 pm

Another look at the current wind shear


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu May 24, 2018 8:20 pm



Hope this is wrong cause Beaches of NJ are going to be not good for Sun and Mon




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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu May 24, 2018 8:21 pm


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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Thu May 24, 2018 8:39 pm

sroc4 wrote:Another look at the current wind shear


Give it time, Scott. It has to couple and slide beneath the upper-level low. Once it does that it will begin to intensify pretty steadily I think. I think a high-end TS or low-end Cat-1 will be achievable here. Right now it is still out ahead of the mid-level feature which is why it's sheared right now - essentially it's developing like a typical mid-latitude cyclone (same processes involved right now). Once it gets beneath the mid- and upper-level low(s), the shear will back off significantly, and the low-level center can then begin the W.I.S.H.E. feedback and warm/intensify it from the bottom up.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri May 25, 2018 8:13 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Another look at the current wind shear


Give it time, Scott. It has to couple and slide beneath the upper-level low. Once it does that it will begin to intensify pretty steadily I think. I think a high-end TS or low-end Cat-1 will be achievable here. Right now it is still out ahead of the mid-level feature which is why it's sheared right now - essentially it's developing like a typical mid-latitude cyclone (same processes involved right now). Once it gets beneath the mid- and upper-level low(s), the shear will back off significantly, and the low-level center can then begin the W.I.S.H.E. feedback and warm/intensify it from the bottom up.

Trust me I understand what your saying.  The LLC is still over land; however, looking at the shear forecasts to the systems N over the next 48-72 hrs combined with the dry air that remains to the west of the system, I am highly skeptical that we ever achieve high end TS/Cat one status.  If we do its very short lived and likely never becomes much of an issue for land with the exception of a very small area around the center as it is likely very short lived unless the center stalls just off the Gulf coast.  There are some differences with the upper level trough over the GOM now between the GFS and Euro regarding its orientation over the next 72hrs.  If it remains neutral; certainly positive like it is now, then shear will prevent any real good organization and coupling of the mid/upper level centers with the LLC; however if it tilts neg then maybe.  Well see just how organized this system can really get, but for now I am skeptical.  I think IF we see true tropical characteristics and organization beyond a weak TS/Depression status we need to wait until it reaches at least 25-26N lat to do so.  Well see.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri May 25, 2018 10:52 am

Looks like several LLC this morning on visible sat imagery


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
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Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri May 25, 2018 12:19 pm

sroc4 wrote:Looks like several LLC this morning on visible sat imagery


They named it this morning. We have "Sub Tropical Storm" Alberto.


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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri May 25, 2018 12:32 pm

Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  



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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri May 25, 2018 4:10 pm

wow hit 90* ....i love the sun...but can I ask how many days till winter???? Laughing
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri May 25, 2018 4:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  



what happened to the like button? like
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri May 25, 2018 4:30 pm

88 degrees with sunny skies. Tomorrow I am heading out to the beach even though the water temperature is still cold but I am jumping in.

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri May 25, 2018 5:45 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Personally I think thats ridiculous and a bit premature, because clearly there is a LLC well south of where they have the center positioned meaning that there are at least two LLCs, and it is still highly disorganized.  



what happened to the like button? like

I dont know?? Frank must have done something to it because I didnt.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Sat May 26, 2018 5:33 pm

Perfect day to be at the beach even though the water was cold. Now we have lots of lightning and thunder early high of 90 degrees

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat May 26, 2018 8:01 pm

Hi of 90.2° here, totally sucked being on call with all my gear on, 2 calls back to back, 2nd one we were outside. Was drinking so much water I thought I would float away!

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun May 27, 2018 2:28 pm

And today, 61° and cool breeze, still socked in with clouds. Thankfully had no plans today, so I guess I'll cook!

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Dtone on Sun May 27, 2018 8:34 pm

Catastrophic flash flooding again in Ellicott City, MD and around Baltomore area in general.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/27/flash-flood-emergency-in-ellicott-city-md-as-thunderstorms-unload-excessive-rainfall/?utm_term=.a08232039aff

Picked a hell of a day to visit Ellicott City, MD. This is real.

A post shared by Craig Patrick (@giantsofdiving) on




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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon May 28, 2018 6:32 am

OMG dtone! That is unbelievable

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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March 20th-22nd 11.8"
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon May 28, 2018 1:12 pm

Dtone wrote:Catastrophic flash flooding again in Ellicott City, MD and around Baltomore area in general.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/27/flash-flood-emergency-in-ellicott-city-md-as-thunderstorms-unload-excessive-rainfall/?utm_term=.a08232039aff

Picked a hell of a day to visit Ellicott City, MD. This is real.

A post shared by Craig Patrick (@giantsofdiving) on




saw that yesterday absolutely horrifying..feel so bad..they just recovered from the last flash flood
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon May 28, 2018 1:13 pm

we had 2.5 inches of rain yesterday...
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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue May 29, 2018 9:12 am

Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Tue May 29, 2018 9:04 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

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Re: May 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed May 30, 2018 9:32 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Just a few more days of May left. Time is flyin'

June looks like it wants to get off to a below normal start. A lot of cut-off low's showing up in the long range under an NAO block.

Weather in general in our area has been uneventful for my liking. Looks like a rainy weekend ahead. Why have our weekends been timed with crap weather??

Happy belated Birthday you old timer!!!! Hahaha hope your day was well spent!! Your post is music to my ears regarding the extended; I'm done with this heat, give me winter again!!! Frank, you're the man to get that accomplished......I beg of you, please strike a deal with Mother Nature lol or as you also said, at least make it more interesting to pass the time lmao

Already miss the cold, eh?

Here is the cut-off low this weekend:

'

Then next week the trough offshore links with another dropping down from Canada:



And mid-June the trough is still there



Obviously below normal in June is not "cold" but it will not be the scorching heat nor humid air mass we've seen. The west is going to BAKE.


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