HomeFLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by SoulSingMG Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:34 am
She's comiiiiinnnnnggggg north. 
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:58 am
Quick question isn't it possible when she gets up to major hurricane which is projected couldn't she push more north being a stronger storm instead of a west track
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:59 am
Florence upgraded to Cat 2 status. Pressure down to 969mb. Winds are 105mph moving WNW at 9mph.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:26 am
GFS at least brings some remnant tropical rain up this way. EURO is pretty far south still. Does not look like a big deal for us. That said, if anyone has family in SC/NC they will be dealing with a powerful system.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:30 am
nutleyblizzard wrote:Florence upgraded to Cat 2 status. Pressure down to 969mb. Winds are 105mph moving WNW at 9mph.
As of 5am this am:
Looking at sat imagery, and the environmental conditions out ahead of her and the fact that she still has yet to reach 60w tells me we see at least Cat 3 status within 24hrs or less and we see this cone shift north by this time tomorrow. We really are entering the final turn to the finish line here. I also still believe that there is still a chance at a glancing blow or no direct landfall with this system. If she makes landfall this is the area I believe it occurs.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by weatherwatchermom Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:10 am
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS at least brings some remnant tropical rain up this way. EURO is pretty far south still. Does not look like a big deal for us. That said, if anyone has family in SC/NC they will be dealing with a powerful system.
Yes I do have family and friends that live on the Bouge Sound by Emerald Isle NC...where my parents plan to move next year...
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:26 am
A new recon mission is on its way. Not sure when that data would be incorporated however. Looks like could be a cat 3 by this afternoon. Possibly even by lunchtime.
Not sure I am understanding the Euro making a more Southerly turn given the strength on the hurricane and also that the Euro seems to slightly erode the WAR a bit.
If this thing makes landfall and I were a betting man, I would say somewhere between Hatteras and the extreme Southern Delmarva.
Not sure I am understanding the Euro making a more Southerly turn given the strength on the hurricane and also that the Euro seems to slightly erode the WAR a bit.
If this thing makes landfall and I were a betting man, I would say somewhere between Hatteras and the extreme Southern Delmarva.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:31 am
She is a beaut
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by larryrock72 Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:44 am
Anyone have any models on the blocking H. Is it suppose to make it as far south as projected or will it be further north? Thanks!!!! At work.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:57 am
Cat 3 (115 mph) and 962 mb at 11 am advisory
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:03 am
I think the move to the WNW has begun.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-50-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-50-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:16 am
FWIW the NAM shows the track I think will ultimately take...maybe a little further west
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:34 am
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:39 am
Was just about to post this. 12z ICON has her stalling near OBX like most models, but then it creeps north. At hr 138 of 180.skinsfan1177 wrote:
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:41 am
Wow. Barely moving over Delmarva at hour 156
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by rb924119 Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:47 am
jwalsh wrote:Was just about to post this. 12z ICON has her stalling near OBX like most models, but then it creeps north. At hr 138 of 180.skinsfan1177 wrote:
Synoptically, this makes sense to me. LOCK. IT. IN. lol I wonder what the other global stuff are going to show today, and I'm especially curious to see if the UKMET remains in its recent agreement with the GFS/ICON, and what the EURO does, since it is increasingly becoming the outlier.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by bobjohnsonforthehall Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:54 am
Am hearing recon found a 945 mb in the NE quadrant. If so that is a fair amount lower than what was posted as of 11:00 AM. This could be a cat 4 pretty soon if it isn't already. Woof.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:59 am
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by rb924119 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:00 pm
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Am hearing recon found a 945 mb in the NE quadrant. If so that is a fair amount lower than what was posted as of 11:00 AM. This could be a cat 4 pretty soon if it isn't already. Woof.
Confirmed.
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:02 pm
NHC just issued an update statement at noon: Cat 4 (130 mph), 946 mb
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 pm
GFS is east
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:05 pm
sroc4 wrote:GFS is east
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by SoulSingMG Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:11 pm
Holy sh*t she's back to a 4
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by oldtimer Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:21 pm
Stoc. GFS east. Does mean more toward the coast??
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:40 pm
oldtimer wrote:Stoc. GFS east. Does mean more toward the coast??
No it means her track turns north before she makes a direct landfall. As per the GFS verbatim she then stalls east of Cape Hatteras and meanders before drifting back towards the coast
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by sroc4 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:42 pm
sroc4 wrote:oldtimer wrote:Stoc. GFS east. Does mean more toward the coast??
No it means her track turns north before she makes a direct landfall. As per the GFS verbatim she then stalls east of Cape Hatteras and meanders before drifting back towards the coast
She then makes landfall near OBX and moves inland. It still does not affect our region at all.
Euro should be interesting
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Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?
by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:46 pm
It appears to me she may have taken a more northwest track
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