Re: FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:40 pm

What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?! Tired Mad

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 7b211010

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:42 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

I like that model. We’d get slammed

by jwalsh Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:42 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 09e64a10

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 518e2910

by **Joe Snow** Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:43 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Cone did not shift its nowhere near nj. Down in Carolinas. But dayumm 939mb 140mph we may see cat 5 here.

Jman look at my picture, latest from the NHC

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:45 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

I like that model. We’d get slammed

Sure, in three weeks lol. Should we evac the coast of Maine? It’s such garbage. Especially for tropical systems.

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:51 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

I like that model. We’d get slammed

Sure, in three weeks lol. Should we evac the coast of Maine? It’s such garbage. Especially for tropical systems.

Only 8 days. Pretty consistent with timing compared to others I think

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:23 pm

18z gfs!!! But more than a week out meh.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:38 pm

18z GEFS have some Sandy-like solutions, although mainly in the Chesapeake region.....

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:41 pm

Interesting words I read on another wx forum...

"The interaction between a hurricane this powerful and a ridge that is best described as moderately strong west of 70W is so full of uncertainty that nobody north of the projected landfall zone should assume they are in any kind of impact-free situation. I think the most likely outcome is for a fast recurvature through the Mid-Atlantic (after the NC landfall) and probably a track through southern New England and across Nova Scotia. Intensity would likely be down to cat-1 or weak cat-2 by the time the center reaches central Chesapeake and tropical storm from about PHL to PWM. I am not seeing much justification for the offshore stalls, loops or southwest motion scenarios. Late October 1963 offered as one example was a time of very strong high pressure ridge formation and six weeks later than this in the season.

SST values from the current location of the storm to the Cape Lookout to Hatteras zone currently average 29 C. There is almost no 500 mb wind field ahead of the storm at all excluding what it is producing locally. I don't see this ridge holding back the inevitable and most frequent solution of a steady recurve north and northeast over 48 hours after landfall. The impacts would be moderately severe for southeast VA, moderate for regions further north trending to less severe by NYC and New England. But nobody in those regions should be assuming they are just on the sidelines of Florence. Just my opinion and would say this scenario 50% likely, steady west then north movement 30% and the other loops and meanders about 20% likely."

by **billg315** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:21 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this path, minus most of the loops. If you look at my post on page 5 from 10 am Saturday, this is almost exactly the general path (a little east maybe inland) I was talking about as being most likely.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:24 pm

billg315 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this path, minus most of the loops. If you look at my post on page 5 from 10 am Saturday, this is almost exactly the general path (a little east maybe inland) I was talking about as being most likely.

Pages back, I have a track up the coast as well (along with Rb). It's the stalling and looping until the end times that I don't see happening.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:26 pm

I have family and friends that live on the Sound near Morehead City Nc...that might get hit with 15-20 ft storm surge and what are the winds..at least 100 plus. they are evacuating 5 hours inland..to Ashville..that might not be a good idea because now they are saying that inland might have biblical rains...what a freaking mess!

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:29 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:I have family and friends that live on the Sound near Morehead City Nc...that might get hit with 15-20 ft storm surge and what are the winds..at least 100 plus. they are evacuating 5 hours inland..to Ashville..that might not be a good idea because now they are saying that inland might have biblical rains...what a freaking mess!

Hey mom. Get in touch with them and tell them to go southwest. Somewhere near central SC. That will most likely put them on the southern and western periphery of this storm ensuring their safety. Good luck

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:32 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:I have family and friends that live on the Sound near Morehead City Nc...that might get hit with 15-20 ft storm surge and what are the winds..at least 100 plus. they are evacuating 5 hours inland..to Ashville..that might not be a good idea because now they are saying that inland might have biblical rains...what a freaking mess!

Hey mom. Get in touch with them and tell them to go southwest. Somewhere near central SC. That will most likely put them on the southern and western periphery of this storm ensuring their safety. Good luck

we told them to come up here..but thanks that is a good idea! I will have my mom call them...wish were tracking snow vs...hurricanes..I am having flashbacks and feeling the anxiety I felt before Sandy...

by **amugs** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:33 pm

THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE CATASTROPHIC RUN for the coast!!

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 Af57724a-8fbf-42c9-b369-f25c409e34f4.gif.7651febfa1549f6a999542f34b7a9881

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 Af57724a-8fbf-42c9-b369-f25c409e34f4.gif.7651febfa1549f6a999542f34b7a9881

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:38 pm

amugs wrote:THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE CATASTROPHIC RUN for the coast!!

omg mugs...I could just cry..is there any chance this could skip out to sea a bit?? i want to hold out hope

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:53 pm

That run won’t happen. Impossible

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:11 pm

Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

by **billg315** Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:12 pm

syosnow94 wrote:That run won’t happen. Impossible

I would normally agree with this, without hesitation. But after watching how Harvey behaved and how Sandy decided to take an unprecedented sharp left turn, I guess it can’t be ruled out completely.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:23 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Jesus that's long go need a hour for that

by **sroc4** Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

This sounds familiar.

by Guest Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:47 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Phenomenal read. Really clear.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:50 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Great write-up!! Can't say I disagreed with anything there.

by Zhukov1945 Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:06 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Great write-up!! Can't say I disagreed with anything there.

The crank can be severely annoying when his takes are opposite of my desired outcomes (and this take is supportive of mine) but I can't ever say that they aren't well reasoned and argued.

by Zhukov1945 Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:08 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Read.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e091018b.htm

Great write-up!! Can't say I disagreed with anything there.

The crank can be severely annoying when his takes are opposite of my desired outcomes (and this take is supportive of mine) but I can't ever say that they aren't well reasoned and argued.

The funniest thing is when he rants and rails about "the trolls" and you look through his tweets and he has maybe 1-2 replies per tweet. Easily triggered much?

by **Sanchize06** Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:53 pm

11pm Update: Winds still at 140 mph, pressure up a bit to 944mb. Another slight adjustment north in the track from the NHC

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 024408_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes? - Page 16 024408_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

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