FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board!

who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).

So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board!

who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).

So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

I definitely agree with this just shifted a little more to the SW and a little less latitude. The "creep" is the next big forecast challenge, especially with the rains in the east this summer and whether or not a PRE sets up before landfall.

Well whatever the end result is we def, have had one that has defied a lot of climo and taught me some new stuff, so thats something to take away.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:I posted this on Twitter last night and I stand by it! Pick a side and get on board!

who is mg? Ill take that track as bad as that would b though.

ME!!! Lol

If you kicked yours out to the east once it reaches southern NJ, and give me a tolerance of +/- 75 miles either side, you have my vote. What you have is darn near identical to how I think this ultimately plays out (for what little it's worth lol).

So you think we may have sig impacts still possible? 75miles offshore is nothing could even include the coast near the ce nter depending on the size.  Or do you mean WAY east. And your ideas are worth a lot, you often times give very good and accuarate info, no more or less so than pro mets.

It's tough to draw on mobile, but as *ROUGH ESTIMATE*, my approximate thinking is in green. Please note I think it will only achieve a latitude of about Cape May before kicking east, but to try to get that accurate with my fat fingers on a small screen is a fool's errand aha also, once it landfalls, it CREEPS northward before accelerating back out over the open water as it runs beacon into the block.

I'm honored to have drawn anything that gets even some of your support, Rb! Haha. Thanks. And yeah, I keep seeing the hard right on models once she hits the ridge up here but I really wonder just how far north she makes it, and like Quiet said, where she hangs out. Don’t think we’ll know until Monday when the strength and position of that block is depicted better. Someone is going to get devastating flooding (assuming she parks over land).

She is almost a hurricane 5pm 70mph, cone shifted quite a bit north along with the TS force wind percentage noe reaching delaware at 5%.

Dropsonde data is in for the 18z GFS

Quietace wrote:Dropsonde data is in for the 18z GFS

Explain this please?

so far GFS track is the same pretty much.

Quietace wrote:Dropsonde data is in for the 18z GFS

Won't actually be ingested until 00z, though. Initialization is just tweaked to reflect it.

NC outer banks get obliterated this run of the GFS. Lets see if theres any progress north from the last run.

Hr 144 GFS is more west and making landfall this time, lets see if it goes north or gets shunted down and OTS.

Wow 144-156 she doesnt move at ALL just meanders, yikes OBX are screwed this run.

What gets me is the timing differences between GFS and the other models, GFS is taking this well into next weekend.

Okay for real, how many times is she going to make landfall in NC!!!

jmanley32 wrote:Okay for real, how many times is she going to make landfall in NC!!!

Its laughable what the GFS is doing this run. I can see a stall occurring, but 3 days???

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay for real, how many times is she going to make landfall in NC!!!

Its laughable what the GFS is doing this run. I can see a stall occurring, but 3 days???

OBX will be wiped off the map literally, like maps will have to be remade to not include obx. jk but ya it is laughable, i pray they dont have to ensure this.

Almost 4 days now, cat 3/4 non stop there, unreal

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay for real, how many times is she going to make landfall in NC!!!

Its laughable what the GFS is doing this run. I can see a stall occurring, but 3 days???

Euro did the exact same thing. 3+ days

Well after 90 hours of battering OBX, a trough is picking up Florence. Does it kick the storm OTS or ride it up the coast?

Okay now shes moving north 10 days from now lol, that tells us nothing way to far out. But man could we still be dealing with her a week from wednesday

Is it just me or does that trough look to be possibly able to reel her in?

I’m getting REAL butt hurt that no models bring even the remnants of her up here. Need the block to move East quicker

SoulSingMG wrote:I’m getting REAL butt hurt that no models bring even the remnants of her up here. Need the block to move East quicker

This run may be close, lets see.

INNNN COMING! Bpoom reintensifies long island hit!! cat 2 prolly. But 240 hrs out, shoot back to last week lmao oh god

Holy crap! She's coming up the coast!!!

of course me and soul sit in the eye with no wind lol, but goping into it oh boy that would be fun....