FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.

RB what did the spaghettis show exactly?

18z Spaghettis:



12z GEFS:

rb924119 wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Looks at 18z spaghettis.....GULP.

RB what did the spaghettis show exactly?

18z Spaghettis:



12z GEFS:

Thanks. Based off those verbatim we would be looking at some decent rains next Sunday thru Monday but no serious impacts. BIG YAWN.

Wow that's Def not a good look. Well if u want impacts it is. Hey ace looks like gfs wasn't that far off on pressures after all. I mean the 920s and down prolly wrong would hope but already could be sub 940s.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow that's Dec not a good look. Hey ace looks like hrs wasn't that far off on pressures after all. I mean the 920s and down prolly wrong would hope but already could be sub 940s.

For NC and Virginia. We’re far enough away that any impacts if we get them at all would be minimal!

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow that's Dec not a good look. Hey ace looks like hrs wasn't that far off on pressures after all. I mean the 920s and down prolly wrong would hope but already could be sub 940s.

For NC and Virginia. We’re far enough away that any impacts if we get them at all would be minimal!

you dunno could pull some tricks like 23mb drop on 3 hrs. Insane. But I feel u syo.

Of course the 12z EPS shifted south. So now we're further away from agreement than yesterday lmao

SoulSingMG wrote:Of course the 12z EPS shifted south. So now we're further away from agreement than yesterday lmao

I truly think the EURO suite is struggling with this.

I’ll check back in the morning. Hopefully the rapid strengthening shifts the cone WAAAAAAAY northotherwise ill tune out. Track on boys. Reel er in!

rb924119 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Of course the 12z EPS shifted south. So now we're further away from agreement than yesterday lmao

I truly think the EURO suite is struggling with this.

Agreed

I don't like looking at off-hour runs, as you all know by now, but the 18z NAM really has me raising my eyebrow right now. Details to come as the run unfolds, but it is certainly on the northeastern edge of the guidance envelope through 51 hours. This might have dire consequences for the Mid-Atlantic this run, but I will wait for the run to conclude before confirming.

Cone shifted north, Cape May on the outer edge?

Tracks are the latest from the NHC.

18z NAM would be a Hurricane Bill repeat - near miss for the Eastern Seaboard, if taken verbatim.

rb924119 wrote:18z NAM would be a Hurricane Bill repeat - near miss for the Eastern Seaboard, if taken verbatim.

a miss for everyone? Lol wouldn't that be crazy.

Cone did not shift its nowhere near nj. Down in Carolinas. But dayumm 939mb 140mph we may see cat 5 here.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:18z NAM would be a Hurricane Bill repeat - near miss for the Eastern Seaboard, if taken verbatim.

a miss for everyone? Lol wouldn't that be crazy.

Yes. But BARELY. Serious damage to beaches.

From NHC’s 5 pm forecast discussion:

“Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.”

Joe Snow wrote:Cone shifted north, Cape May on the outer edge?

Tracks are the latest from the NHC.

that's not nhc cone that's something else.

jwalsh wrote:From NHC’s 5 pm forecast discussion:

“Unfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly intensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second GOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices rotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found peak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and dropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial wind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.

None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.”

holy crap monster!!!

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:Cone shifted north, Cape May on the outer edge?

Tracks are the latest from the NHC.

that's not nhc cone that's something else.

It def north

This thing will be 500 miles wide and we wont get any effects from it??   Hard to believe at this point

Notable in the 5pm NHC update:

There is a new player in the forecast as
well, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding
some uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United
States. Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has
increased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall. The
official forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is
west of the model consensus. It is important not to focus on the
exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about
140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend
well away from the center.

As of now I don’t see the cone further north. The eastern outer banks aren’t even in the cone they are north of it

syosnow94 wrote:As of now I don’t see the cone further north. The eastern outer banks aren’t even in the cone they are north of it

I agree but Scott is one our head honchos so I guess he means the ball at the end? Something tells me we go see rain and at least some low end ts winds. Just a hunch.

The wind swatch cone percentages spans from Florida border to NYC holy crap!

While the center of the cone is the same its not alot but the southern periphery of the impact cone landfall cone has taken the southern half of SC out and the northern fringe of the Demarva is now included.  Its the start of what I expect.  I could be wrong though.  Still a long way out

What FRESH HELL is this?? Can we just get rid of this model already?!