Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[rb924119]

I'm hearing the Euro weeklies are looking fantastic starting right around Christmas right through January very Nino like pattern. negative e p o positive p n a negative Nao many sleepless nights ahead if they are correct

I can confirm. The weeklies are a blend of ‘77-‘78 temps with ‘93-‘94/‘95-‘96 snowfall POTENTIAL. Legitimately am speechless. They went right to their seasonals. Incredible signal from them.

[rb924119]

RB one aspect that the models could be under playing is the strength of the subtropical jet this year with the El Nino and the strength of the shortwave that will be entering Southern California in about 72 hours if that shortwave is stronger it could gain latitude and raise Heights out ahead of it as it moves across the Southern Tier of the u.s. then if the Confluence to the north is weaker than modeled our area comes into play with a significant snow storm still a lot to be determined and I agree with a lot of what you said suppression Stills looks more likely than not let's see how this all plays out

You certainly have a very valid points, and are things that I have considered in the above discussion. However, as you said, an under/over-estimation could lead to large errors in either direction. One thing that really concerns me, though, is just how far south the southern stream enters the CONUS. Using the general rule that storms exit the CONUS at roughly the same latitude that they enter, that doesn’t leave us much room unless we see very potent northern stream interaction, and I don’t foresee that happening. That said, I also don’t think the southern stream energy will be strong enough to sufficiently alter the steering flow to its northeast more than the collapsing PNA ridge and gain *enough* latitude to get us all in the ballgame.

[skinsfan1177]

Gefs are also further north the 2-inch line gets to Trenton a few nice hits in there 6 inch line gets to DC I believe the 12z had no snow for either area

Correct bc the confluence over Maine isn't as strong

[amugs]

I'm hearing the Euro weeklies are looking fantastic starting right around Christmas right through January very Nino like pattern. negative e p o positive p n a negative Nao many sleepless nights ahead if they are correct

I can confirm. The weeklies are a blend of ‘77-‘78 temps with ‘93-‘94/‘95-‘96 snowfall POTENTIAL. Legitimately am speechless. They went right to their seasonals. Incredible signal from them.

Storm front news:
Miller A's and Rb you know we discussed this, one teh energy is way off west of the Aleutians and doesn't come into play until another 36 hours from sampling to begin. Two, Miller A's like as do hcanes are strong tropical moisture fed systems. have a tendency to move poleward. Three, the models have been overdoing the confluence to our North all year and under-doing the cold air ability to hang tough.
Four, The trend of most storms this fall has been up the coast and that has been our storm track for 2 months now. Fall storms tracks are a precursor to winter. Five, get some rest cause teh next 5 days are going to be wild IMO!

FROM NSFwx pro met

See the cluster - we'll see

Weeklies:
HUMINA HUMINA - I wrote about the warm from the 12thish to the 17thish but N to slightly AN and if we have a snow pack that gets muted as well. With the PAC WAVE buckle as progged starting the 16thish that usually means 2-3 days later we get a trough forming over the NE with a PNA Spike and the EPO ready to re load on us.

DEC 19th you can the wave off teh WC as teh trough builds with stormpotential

[amugs]

250 jet streak moved N - need another 200-250 mile move and we'll be rocking
18 Z


12Z

[jmanley32]

It just seems unlikely to me for that far south those areas seeing as much as 3 feet of snow, do they ever see that kind of snow? Frank your not kidding the southern energy and mouisture is crazy and if these can phase this will be a major storm. Also looking like more late 9th earliest to 10th storm which I could not ask for more perfect timing : ) Hoping for the best but tempering any expectations as I see enough about suppression to think this may be the outcome, we shall see. That move in the jet streak north mugs is def a good sign but a whole lot of runs to go for it to waver either way.

[Math23x7]

What the ECMWF OP suggested is that the low pressure system slows down that by the time it's off our coastline, the cold air supply isnt there, resulting in a coastal rainstorm.

If that were to happen, then as amugs would say "A day late and a dollar short. I bring this up because in late December of 2013, we had a coastal rainstorm and he said just that. It was very cold three days prior and right after it but not during it:

http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=2013&mm=12&dd=30&run=00

Here was the brief thread regarding it on this forum:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t169-sunday-12-29-nor-easter-thread

Another situation of a coastal storm with 850s above 0C in the dead of winter: The late January 2017 nor'easter (23rd-24th), which was a slow moving coastal low pressure system bring over 2" qpf over an extended period of time to the region. But it was a 37 degree plain rain with wind chills in the 20s. And plenty of high winds in Queens/Nassau. Doc and CP had several inches of sleet. Quite a waste of a low off the coast. Here is the map from the evening of 1/23/17:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/web_pages/sfc/sfc_archive_maps.php?arcdate=01/24/2017&selmap=2017012403&maptype=namussfc

And here was the thread from this forum regarding it:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t788-january-22nd-24th-nor-easter-observations-discussions

At any rate, this is the narrow window for us to get snow before Christmas before it warms up by the end of next week.

[Snow88]

GFS is further south but the CMC is a coastal hugger lol

[rb924119]

I'm hearing the Euro weeklies are looking fantastic starting right around Christmas right through January very Nino like pattern. negative e p o positive p n a negative Nao many sleepless nights ahead if they are correct

I can confirm. The weeklies are a blend of ‘77-‘78 temps with ‘93-‘94/‘95-‘96 snowfall POTENTIAL. Legitimately am speechless. They went right to their seasonals. Incredible signal from them.

Storm front news:
Miller A's and Rb you know we discussed this, one teh energy is way off west of the Aleutians and doesn't come into play until another 36 hours from sampling to begin. Two, Miller A's like as do hcanes are strong tropical moisture fed systems. have a tendency to move poleward. Three, the models have been overdoing the confluence to our North all year and under-doing the cold air ability to hang tough.
Four, The trend of most storms this fall has been up the coast and that has been our storm track for 2 months now. Fall storms tracks are a precursor to winter. Five, get  some rest cause teh next 5 days are going to be wild IMO!

FROM  NSFwx pro met

See the cluster - we'll see

Weeklies:
HUMINA HUMINA - I wrote about the warm from the 12thish to the 17thish but N to  slightly AN and if we have a snow pack that gets muted as well. With the PAC WAVE buckle as progged starting the 16thish that usually means 2-3 days later we get a trough forming over the NE with a PNA Spike and the EPO ready to re load on us.

DEC 19th you can the wave off teh WC as teh trough builds with stormpotential

No doubt, mugs, that there is still so much time for the inherent volatility that so many of us have been discussing will continue to work its mischief on progged solutions over the next few days. This means that pretty much any sensible option is still on the table, and anybody speaking otherwise definitively is a fool. While I am confident in my thinking, I am by no means certain, and your points remain just as valid.

To your second point, in most circumstances they do via the release of patent hear energy into the atmosphere feeding back and allowing heights to be further increased out ahead of the systems, which is ALWAYS underestimated by models until crunch time. This is something that I have taken into consideration, and in situations where there multiple or entirely destructively intereinterfering global and synoptic signals, it is something that I weight quite heavily. However, in this particular setup I do not believe it will be enough on its own.

To your third, I cannot comment on the confluence, but definitely agree with later portion. However, think carefully about what you just said here - if cold air hangs tougher, that means that the baroclinic zone/streamflow/jet is also further south by default.

Fourth, this is a very valid point, and one that certainly carries weight. I just don’t think it will “overpower” all the other factors involved. And finally, fifth, we both know that isn’t gonna happen ahahahaha

[rb924119]

UKMET followed the GFS. Ugly.

[skinsfan1177]

We need big changes today and Tommorow or this threat is done

[algae888]

6z GFS and new GFS much further north the new GFS is a great hit for southern New Jersey down to Philly and DC even get some snow into the New York City area we need to see changes in the next 24 hours from the better models like the ukie and the euro. Confluence much weaker on the 6z GFS also a closed low over Kentucky how can that not mean snow for us fun times ahead and skins you may see some snow tomorrow looks like a small Meso Low is going to form right off the Jersey coast

[skinsfan1177]

North
ern push

[algae888]

Looking at the setup for the storm on December 10th from a purely logical / scientific component which would be based heavily on probability/ climo (75%) and the other 25% on guidance / 500 millibar setup. My conclusion would be that the southernmost outcome would be a snowstorm for Virginia and snow making it up here to Southern New Jersey albeit light. That I would give 25% or less chance. The most likely outcome is a snowstorm from just north of DC right up to Red Sox Suck I would give that a 50% chance right now and the last 25% chance would be a more Inland track where Coastal area see a change to rain. Again this would be based off of probability as how many times has it snowed Virginia on South on December 10th. climo is heavily against it. Heck it's even hard for us to get a snowstorm around December 10th. This conclusion is no different and how I feel about hurricanes hitting our area. So I say look for a northern correction on all the models in the next 24 to 48 hours

[algae888]

I should clarify that that's my opinion right now on a system 6 days out if we're under 3 days and the models are still showing the suppression obviously my opinion would change as I would weigh more heavily on guidance and 500 millibar setup

[skinsfan1177]

Good signs in earlier model runs. More phasing less confluence lets see rest of day. Positive juju

[algae888]

A met who resides in New England feels the CMC is the most correct model and feels it would rain along the coast even into New England his reasoning is that it's the only model that is not showing a negative Nao and feels the Confluence will be much weaker than what guidance is showing. The current Nao forecast is positive and looks to stay that way at the time the storm hits

[skinsfan1177]

A met who resides in New England feels the CMC is the most correct model and feels it would rain along the coast even into New England his reasoning is that it's the only model that is not showing a negative Nao and feels the Confluence will be much weaker than what guidance is showing. The current Nao forecast is positive and looks to stay that way at the time the storm hits

Not with a phasing storm dynamics would keep it cold enough

[amugs]

CMC ENS are in full support of its OP which is pretty remarkable - BACON anyone??
Look we still have 5 days and major changes can happen but one aspect that I am seeing is the suppressed heights  that were in NE are now up in NE Canada.
Jman you complain its going to be rain because the 32* is not in your backyard I swear I'll put  a ban on you from this storm LOL!! - don't worry about the 32* line this is just guidance for what is possible at this stage  - thermal profiles are always skewed with dynamic and so many moving parts:


Here is the what JH pointed out in a write up about the energy lifting up and out - look at it over NE then at the end in SE Canada - this will allow the storm to gain North Latitude
:




From CCB at 33&Rain GIF he made of the FV3 - new PFS model 0 not much of change right? Only about 700 mile model error - I wish I had this in school i'd be a 150A+ student (if tehre was ever such a scale!!)


On  a whole otehr note - the PV at the Stratosphere and Troposphere levels is getting whacked by major heat flux thus resulting in a would be  elongation or even split as per the later and previous forecasts. This should start to take shape in affecting our weather by later December/early January.

This shows the major warming taking place and forecasted to:






The DEC - FEB analog of 77-78, 02-03, 09-10 are good for this piece of winter with this Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.

Okay back to the chillins

[bobjohnsonforthehall]

What would be going on at that level that would cause such a drastic change up north like that? Is it new info and a new placement or a blind aardvark throwing darts at a board?

[Frank_Wx]

The 12z GFS just initialized. Let's see what it shows. I have the same concerns this morning as I did from my last update. The confluence over New England and the advancing ridge out west. These issues are evident on the EPS.



The good news...the confluence over New England has trended to lift sooner than expected.

[rb924119]

The silence is deafening lol

[hyde345]

Stick a fork in it.

[algae888]

It's still very early the GFS look better up 2 hour 96 with less Confluence in the Northeast until it pulled a fast one and brought a piece of the polar vortex into Maine where did that feature come from still a lot of details to be ironed out

[Grselig]

[rb924119]

Stick a fork in it.

HOLD YOUR FIRE!!!!!!! Lol it ain’t over yet.

[algae888]

The new GFS brings a foot-and-a-half to DC a foot to Philly 6 to 12 for the southern New Jersey and several inches here if you look at the UK still a lot of things to be ironed out as it's much slower and has the low off the North Carolina South Carolina border with energy from the northern stream coming in on the back side one other option is we missed the southern system to our South but then get a phase with the northern stream with leftover energy and a coastal comes up the coast still a lot to be determined here

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