Re: Long Range Thread 17.0

[Guest]

If I may. (AND I SWEAR IM
NOT TRYING  TO BE A DOUCHE).

He can claim to be a perfectionist as much as he wants. All his 10 bullet points add up to the following

I NEVER  said this winter would be a blockbuster. (Kind of False you predicted 133%+ above normal snow)
No one including myself ever saw this happening therefore I’m off the hook False  again. (Math did and he’s not a forecaster).
There are two months left and even though they not not the same ones I predicted they COULD still be above normal snow and cold in which case my forecast would verify.  ( false again).

This guy is MUCH more scientifically schooled and knowledgeable than I am but CMON......

[docstox12]

But he was right CP. and we have other actual forecasts with the opposite bias that were wrong. Just sayin’

Exactly! Math was the voice crying in the wilderness at the time,LOL.The preponderance of opinion was against his projection.Gotta give credit where it is due!

[SENJsnowman]

But he was right CP. and we have other actual forecasts with the opposite bias that were wrong. Just sayin’

Exactly! Math was the voice crying in the wilderness at the time,LOL.The preponderance of opinion was against his projection.Gotta give credit where it is due!

I'm not nearly technically proficient enough to say for sure, but to me it seems that Math went against not the preponderance, but basically 100% of all suggested outcomes, with a legitimately explained hypothesis that verified exactly.

That seems like a pretty big accomplishment to me...big time feather in the cap right there. And not just any old feather. One of them big fancy plume bird feathers that the flappers use to wear!

[rb924119]

Anybody remember this post from December 18:

Also, take a look at the MJO projections, The ECMWF shows it going from Phase 5 to 6/neutral (still warm phase) and the GEFS keeps it in Phase 5 through New Year's.

Of course, the SSW map at 3:19 in the video is somewhat similar to the one Frank posted today, but the other components arent cooperating at the moment.

If they don't get their act together in the next few weeks, winter is in big trouble.

Still hate the message, but this messenger saw it coming and said so. Good job Math!

Yup, no question Mike's fears of a warmer verification did end up to have merit. So, nice call, bud!! I should also note that as much as it pains me to say, syo's complaints were also warranted......to a fair extent, at least That's ok, though; we will make up for it

[rb924119]

Hey Frank, great discussion and diagnosis of what’s going on with the MJO and where modeling stands right now, and where we would be headed depending on which model(s) is(are) right. However, I am almost positive I know why the MJO wave appears to be “splitting”, and it completely makes sense as to why we have seen not only the MJO signal explode in amplitude, but also seem to slow its forward progression.

This is for everybody, and not solely you, Frank, but I’d like you (all) to revisit the Hovmoeller diagram, and tell me what you notice about our convection.....the present is not all that matters here (hint hint). I’ll let you guys ponder this a bit, but I WILL reveal what I’m getting at later this evening/early tomorrow morning. I want to see if anybody figures out what has transpired recently on their own, before I just give it away - this is an educational board too, right? I’ll be honest and say until I saw this Hovmoeller, I never even thought to look at what was actually going on, but now it makes complete sense. Looking forward to your guesses, gang!

Since nobody took a stab at this, I guess I'll just answer my own question lol however, I do not have the time right now. This will have to wait for now, but I WILL get to this, because it's a great learning experience - it just turned into something bigger than previously anticipated lmao

[Frank_Wx]

But he was right CP. and we have other actual forecasts with the opposite bias that were wrong. Just sayin’

Verification scores for short term forecasts, like your 5 day and 7 day you see on the news, is like 60% at Day 5, 6 and 7. Not awful but not great. I don't have a number for verification scores on long range forecasts, but I can tell you it is ugly. You put too much stock into LR forecasts. You will be let down everytime.

Isotherm explanation on December and what lies ahead. It’s pretty obvious he takes this very seriously.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51698-my-winter-outlook-2018-19/?do=findComment&comment=5080950

Great read. The feedback between the MJO and Stratosphere makes a lot of sense. Once the MJO enters phase 7, around January 6th it looks like now, things should turn around very quickly. Unfortunately, now until January 5th looks bleak.

If I may. (AND I SWEAR IM
NOT TRYING  TO BE A DOUCHE).

He can claim to be a perfectionist as much as he wants. All his 10 bullet points add up to the following

I NEVER  said this winter would be a blockbuster. (Kind of False you predicted 133%+ above normal snow)
No one including myself ever saw this happening therefore I’m off the hook False  again. (Math did and he’s not a forecaster).
There are two months left and even though they not not the same ones I predicted they COULD still be above normal snow and cold in which case my forecast would verify.  ( false again).

This guy is MUCH more scientifically schooled and knowledgeable than I am but CMON......

133% above normal for NYC is what, 35 inches of snow? That is far from a blockbuster.

James, enough is enough with coming into these threads and antagonizing forecasters who put a lot of time into this. I welcome criticism but you take it way too far. Please stop.

[Frank_Wx]

Anybody remember this post from December 18:

Also, take a look at the MJO projections, The ECMWF shows it going from Phase 5 to 6/neutral (still warm phase) and the GEFS keeps it in Phase 5 through New Year's.

Of course, the SSW map at 3:19 in the video is somewhat similar to the one Frank posted today, but the other components arent cooperating at the moment.

If they don't get their act together in the next few weeks, winter is in big trouble.

Still hate the message, but this messenger saw it coming and said so. Good job Math!

Yup, no question Mike's fears of a warmer verification did end up to have merit. So, nice call, bud!! I should also note that as much as it pains me to say, syo's complaints were also warranted......to a fair extent, at least      That's ok, though; we will make up for it

Mike nailed the call for sure. Nice job...

Now if he posts the same MJO map again it will show a much different outcome. Mike, when you have a moment please post the latest MJO maps.

[Guest]

Frank the ONLY person I criticized by name is Isotherm because I believe based off what I read that he is being disingenuous.

I know LR verification scores are low and don’t put much stock into them. My criticism has been of the larger weather forecasting community as a whole. I haven’t called out by name 1 single forecaster that is a regular part of this forum.

As far as the antagonism fine. Point taken. I’ll take it easy. My motivation for it was because I was scoffed at when I posted that the NWS and TWC had LR winter forecasts that were opposite of most and have so far been pretty accurate.

[amugs]

Tom always phenomonal.write up, and thank you for sharing indirectly here. I know your a perfectionists and take this personally but please don't, your calls have been tremendous and your reasoning and scientific data presented prove this in your forecasts. I vehemently agree with the statement that "no one" saw this warmth in Dec, for the reasons states with the 50mb westerly winds that caused a destructive interference with the walker cell in the MJO region 4-6 that was forecasted by our weather models to die in phase 3 as early as Dec 10th. This convection just kept really firing up and has left many scratching their heads. The reason is the cause and finding, learning the why is as you said important for future forecasting methods. 
The MJO paheses of 4-6 as  Tom has said have been a cattlenprod to the SSW event's these past two winter but question being what about other SSW events?  That research would be interesting to see and learn from. 
Anyway, thanks again and we will rock for the heart of winter and you have brought a positive outlook and promise to a negative tenor on such wx boards.
Mugs

[Guest]

......And Isotherm if I’m Wrong (your language is hard to understand at times) then I apologize. I’m not trying to blow you up. Just frustration coming out. Cheers!

[GreyBeard]

Syos,be careful. The lynching party is gathering in the courtyard with torches Docstox has the youtube link I believe
But I do have to agree with you concerning Isotherms forecasts-Half the time I don't know what the hell he is talking about . I know he is well respected and rightfully so. Hell, I don't know what most of the graphs and charts our guys here post are saying , but their time and sharing is appreciated.Now it's time to get that MoJO workin'

[nutleyblizzard]

Encouraging thoughts by Isotherm... The correct initialization of the MJO as of today is phase 6, in my view, and will be propagating through 7 and 8 by the 4th +/- a couple of days.

[HectorO]

Encouraging thoughts by Isotherm... The correct initialization of the MJO as of today is phase 6, in my view, and will be propagating through 7 and 8 by the 4th +/- a couple of days.

Oh god not this again

[Snow88]

Patience is key here

Original winter forecasts had this month being the worst

[amugs]

A week away and in response to Skins post this set up would most likely produce a snow fall - how much faget abut it at this time - for the NYC Met area. Now is it a lock - hells no BUT if Isotherm aka Tom is correct then this may kick off our winter - ala 2014 -15.



Close Up


500MB Map shows the possibility - not the ebst set up but A retrograding EAST NAO Block may be able to help with a spike in the WC Ridge



Time will tell.

[amugs]

Patience is key here

Original winter forecasts had this month being the worst

We have a flip of teh forecast months as per many LR forecasters.
IF we can get the PV to tri fecta itself (as the GOes model has been showing for 3 days now with a 3 way split - big vortex of Eastern Europe, and two smaller ones over Canada and one over Siberia) as it did last year in Feb from March 3rdish until April 10th we had run of winter

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078727768790257664

[aiannone]

[rb924119]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

[Guest]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

Shocking. More “surprising unforeseen “ negativity

[jmanley32]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

for the entire winter your losing hope? That would suck. If so then I'd prefer temps stay bearable and no rain.

[HectorO]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

for the entire winter your losing hope? That would suck. If so then I'd prefer temps stay bearable and no rain.

Start the "bring on spring" threads.

[Guest]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

for the entire winter your losing hope? That would suck. If so then I'd prefer temps stay bearable and no rain.

No Jman. Not the whole winter. We still may get some actual winter for a 3 day stretch in February

[nutleyblizzard]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

for the entire winter your losing hope? That would suck. If so then I'd prefer temps stay bearable and no rain.

Start the "bring on spring" threads.

In December?

[GreyBeard]

With the recent cancellation of winter, the long range crew has gone into the witness protection program for their own well being

[frank 638]

I am not giving up on winter yet I'm going to wait till February I know we are going to have snow soon not what we wanted or expected but I know we're going to have couple snow storms soon

[skinsfan1177]

With the ssw event that took place its a wait and see game to see if the cold goes to the other side of the world or over us. No one knows so let's see. But imo we don't snow until after January 10

[algae888]

Not gonna lie; I’m starting to rapidly lose hope IN SPITE of everything else that’s going on atmospherically. Our entire waveguide is just......off. I’ll probably take a look at things at the start of the week, but some of the hallmark indicators I look for are just not there right now.

As we now head into the heart of Winter, January and February, we don't need to have a perfect pattern for it to snow. If you look at most of the ensembles  they now show a split flow with a PNA Ridge some Nao blocking and a trough in the east however it looks warm when you go off the 500 millibar Maps but I believe that is still workable for us to get snow.  We still have two solid months and at least half of March so anybody canceling winter is foolish and by the way take a look at all the globals tonight snow this week Thursday 3 to 6 inches

[Sponsored content]