October 2018 Observations & Discussions

I hate all this rain I'm a yard sale picker and its my favorite thing to do on Saturdays when it rains not only do I miss out on the fun but I don't make money. And yes I often actually make more money reselling stuff than I do at my regular job. I just realized this is banter. I'm ill so if you guys wanna move it please do I'm not retype it. Will there be enough instability to have at least some thunderstorms with the nor Easter? 30 to 50mph winds are winds that start to impress me but not overly exciting. I can't explain why wind interests me so muxh. Snow is easier to understand. I will say one thing after seeing crazy storm chasers in Michael and 150 plus mph gusts I never want to be in that that's way to high.

quick question...what is the timing of this storm..we need to travel Sat morning to an event..just curious

weatherwatchermom wrote:quick question...what is the timing of this storm..we need to travel Sat morning to an event..just curious

Looks like it slightly moved up in time. Could start raining by Friday evening which means brunt of the storm could be Saturday morning.

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:quick question...what is the timing of this storm..we need to travel Sat morning to an event..just curious

Looks like it slightly moved up in time. Could start raining by Friday evening which means brunt of the storm could be Saturday morning.

thank you Frank...hope we see a lot of the storm mode this winter!!

Euro is showing some impressive gusts for about a 12 he period in the 45 to 60mph range higher end on long island and jersey shore but even inland seeing possibly a little over 50mph. 30 to 40mph 6 hrs before that and 30 to 40mph 6 hrs after that so its go be one beck of a windswept rain if the euro is right. 3km has a wind map when it gets in range like to see what it says.

The 3km nam has this in and out quick rain starts Fri around 7pm and ends at 2pm sat for most areas. The winds crank all sat morning and if 3km is right many along coastal areas and even inland some could see gusts to 55 plus. That remains to be seen and probably is over done but imo 30mph is the very beginning and very end. Think we see a period where we could meet high wind warning criteria. At very least advisory. Frank is spot on with the rain jersey shore seeing 2 plus. Rest of us are most 1 plus.

Im bored with the weekend's storm.  Again it really isn't going to be your typical powerful nor easter for the same reason I stated the other day.  Rather than a strong tightly wound storm the strongest winds will be driven more by the press gradient compliments of the strong HP to the NE rather than a super strong deep LP.

 But if im being perfectly honest while the surface maps aren't showing anything spectacular I think the second system for Monday has to be watched a little more closely for some surprises in the form of white; esp to the N&W.  There is some pretty strong energy diving in behind the sat system and rounds the trough all the while the trough tries to go neg.  Just some subtle shifts in positioning in a couple of key pieces and we have ourselves something.

6z GFS just closed the low and passes just south or over NYC.  Euro is close too. This energy is still way out in the Pac so for now we keep an eye on it.

The clipper-like system on Monday will bring down some cold air from Canada, but the air mass is not quite ripe yet for snow in my opinion. 850mb temps remain warm for the vast majority. Still expecting less than 1 inch of rain from that fast moving system.



The coastal storm this Saturday remains on track. Nothing has changed. More rain along the coast than inland. Same story with the winds.

Frank_Wx wrote:The clipper-like system on Monday will bring down some cold air from Canada, but the air mass is not quite ripe yet for snow in my opinion. 850mb temps remain warm for the vast majority. Still expecting less than 1 inch of rain from that fast moving system.



The coastal storm this Saturday remains on track. Nothing has changed. More rain along the coast than inland. Same story with the winds.

While you may be correct Frank, all Im saying is that when you have a 500mb map that has vorticity this strong rounding the base of a neg tilted trough it argues for a much stronger surface low than what is being depicted at the moment. Esp with both surface and 850mb features in these relative positions. A source for marginally cold enough air for areas N&W to see something white, esp if under an area of heavier precip. IF the 500mb maps are correct I expect that the Monday system will trend stronger as we head into the weekend which will ultimately lead to the colder solns nearer the coast as well. Elevation will likely be the key. NOTE: all maps below are all 00z euro valid for hr 108

Well it peeks my interest a bit as 3km nam still showing widespread long duration time frame of gusts 45 to 55mph even higher out on long island. We will see. It would be interesting if snow happened Monday but I'm sure not down here.

Here n lies the biggest issue with this storm, the pressure gradient piling up the water on the coast from the E NE winds.

Winds 

amugs wrote:Winds 

Mugs thats not the high point, the 3km is showing some mighty impressive numbers even in my area gusting over 50mph for a period and frequently 40-50 for quite a long duration, it also appears the NAM has a second LP develop coming off the jersey coast, was that always there?

From 4am-7pm long duration gusts 40mph-50mph (with a 6 hr period some paces seeing over 50mph), theres def go be some power issues IMO, could 3km be over doing it...of course it has with snow, BUT you do not know till it happens or not.

Wow look at the 850mb on 3km, impressive, now does it mix down to show what the surface map shows is the question.

We need snow

Frank_Wx wrote:We need snow

this would be really bad coupled with snow this early. But in winter this would be awesome.

Wind Advisory already up for Southern Jersey Shore, Lee Goldberg just said he expects it'll soon expand up the coast calling for gusts of 55-60 mph 'strong & potentially damaging' winds. A true Fall storm for Halloween weekend!

Frank_Wx wrote:We need snow

Think if we sacrifice the Central Park Conservancy to the Pagan Snow Gods we will get some??? Cp, what do you think?? Haha get two birds with one stone, perhaps!! Haha

Calm before the storm morning low of 39*

SoulSingMG wrote:Wind Advisory already up for Southern Jersey Shore, Lee Goldberg just said he expects it'll soon expand up the coast calling for gusts of 55-60 mph 'strong & potentially damaging' winds. A true Fall storm for Halloween weekend!

he said 55 to 60? Thata high wind warning criteria and only tip long island has one. Maybe the advisory will be upgraded? There is a advisory now for southern Westchester and ct coast.

Last 1 week temp departures, last 2 weeks temp departures, Since Oct 1st temp departures in that order. Man those first 10 days of the month must have been pretty warm because the last 7-14 have been great.

UPTON's take on the weekend.  

The main story in the short term will be a coastal low moving
across the region tonight and Saturday.

The digging upper level trough over the eastern US allows the
low to move up the coast. As the low moves up the coast, it
will interact with the off shore high pressure system that
retreats to the north. As a result, expect a wind driven, heavy
rain event tonight (mainly after midnight) through Saturday
morning for most places. The heavy rain and strong winds will
likely continue into the afternoon across much of Long Island
and southern CT, with East-Northeast winds gusting to 45-50 mph
along the coast (with 50 to 60 mph possible across the twin
forks of LI late tonight into Sat morning). Rainfall amounts
are expected to generally average between 1-2 inches, with the
potential for locally higher amounts. The best chances for
higher amounts will be across the eastern sections of Long
Island and southeastern Connecticut. These areas will see more
in the way of elevated instability and steepening mid-level
lapse rates, allowing for isolated thunderstorms.

These stronger winds will also result in coastal flooding
issues...see tides/coastal flood section for further details.

The rain should start to taper off late Saturday late afternoon
into the evening as the low starts to lift north of the region.

Check this out jman

12z na
m is a soaker CNJ coast and snj

Wow the gusts are prolly even more impressive. The hrrr on wxbell has that ill have look.

They upgraded nj to a hww. I think entire coast including NYC ate a will be in one before day is out the 3km nam gusts suggest that easily.

JMAN for you