October 2018 Observations & Discussions

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:52 pm

These winds on the models never pan out.

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:16 pm

Power outages possible with the winds and the wetness combo

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:33 pm

I agree mugs sroc not always true but yes does happen where dontpan out. Feb 2017 I think way under modeled windstorm.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:36 pm

There's now a flash flood watch things keep increasing.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:30 pm

Lots of chatter about winds not mixing down to surface
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:51 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Lots of chatter about winds not mixing down to surface
really well that very well could be so. Where you hearing this? Even nws gives us 50mph which isn't much diff than 55mph.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:08 pm

hey everyone happy friday i have been so busy at work .i was just want to know when will we have the full brunt of the storm thanks guys

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by mwilli5783 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:21 pm

local mets were saying sometime between 2am-6am saturday

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:30 pm

wow the catskills has a first wwa starting 2 am till 11 am sat for 1 inch snow

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:35 pm

The local media hype around this storm is, err, interesting.

Nevertheless, some solid coastal flooding for certain areas and most of us will be rockin & rollin in some good winds and heavy rain from 3am until midday-ish. Euro bumped up winds a bit but yeah, what mixes down remains to be seen.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:20 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:The local media hype around this storm is, err, interesting.

Nevertheless, some solid coastal flooding for certain areas and most of us will be rockin & rollin in some good winds and heavy rain from 3am until midday-ish. Euro bumped up winds a bit but yeah, what mixes down remains to be seen.
local media hype? I haven't seen any van u explain what u mean by interesting?
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:30 pm

Wow euro has widespread 45 to 55mph gusts from about 7am to 2pm and 35 to 50 before and after. with some 60 to 70 mph over central to eastern long island during the height. If that were true I think this would be a much bigger deal especially with the wet ground and full leaves. We will see starting late tonight. Models aren't always wrong.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow euro has widespread 45 to 55mph gusts from about 7am to 2pm and 35 to 50 before and after. with some 60 to 70 mph over central to eastern long island during the height. If that were true I think this would be a much bigger deal especially with the wet ground and full leaves. We will see starting late tonight. Models aren't always wrong.

Yeah just tons of media coverage. And yeah, if 00z high res up the ante, maybe we'll get into a HWW Jman.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:43 pm

Looking at the radar it looks like we are in for a soaking. Solid wall of heavy rain headed this way. Should be here before midnight. Fun! At least it should be good weather for sleeping in tomorrow morning.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by Vinnydula on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:01 pm

Feels like snow Smile 42 here in Dobbs. The smell outside makes me want snow!!
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:08 pm

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by billg315 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:42 pm

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:47 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Feels like snow Smile 42 here in Dobbs. The smell outside makes me want snow!!

Upstate NY has a WWA do 1-2" of white gold.

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:49 pm


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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:01 pm

00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:38 am

jmanley32 wrote:00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.

Look at your soundings, Jman, and they will guide you to the likelihood of wind impacts Smile I’m at work, so I can’t assist much more that that at the moment lol

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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:37 am

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:00z 3km is coming in wind very intense rains and wind. so is hrrr, imo we all go to hww but i could be wrong if the thinking by nws is they wont mix down as shown, but if u compare the precip map and gust map the higher gusts are under very heavy areas of rain so they may very well mix down, we will see.

Look at your soundings, Jman, and they will guide you to the likelihood of wind impacts Smile I’m at work, so I can’t assist much more that that at the moment lol
yeah I never really figured out how to read those things. Btw what kind of job is running at 1:40 in the morning what do u do?
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 5:48 am

Winds are picking up on coast. Weathermom that 56 is close to you
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:05 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Winds are picking up on coast. Weathermom that 56 is close to you
wow that actually verifies quite well so far with the sr models. Is there that same map for NYC area? I can see oranges around Staten island so I'm guessing they aren't far away it is getting breexier here. Nws said between 6am.and noon for highest so we will see
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Re: October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:15 am

Wow that map updated first gust over 60mph just north of that 56 to 62mph!
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