First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by billg315 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:48 pm

NAM has trended snowier on this run. Would drop at least a couple inches across much of north Jersey.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:19 pm

CAD!
Low Level Cold air is draining down from the North, remember all that tall about how cold and snowy Canada is this fall? Guess what it's coming and will be until March. 
There is a nice 50/50 low with a 1039 HP over NE and the kicker in Great Lakes is peeled back a bit and further west , they always do this. 
 JB saying 6" plus for Apps and 3-6 for piedmont with sloppyness near coast.
NAM!! The llc sign is what I am looking at this range. Tomorrow evening track comes into play more since we have this storm to get out of the way first which will help the set up for the snow one. 
Love it that Frank started this thread this morning and is getting more excited with each post.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by rb924119 on Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:43 pm

Just subscribed to AccuWeather Pro in order to forecast this event, and for the first time since my college cancelled their previous account..........am I ashamed?? ABSOLUTELY NOT ahahaha

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by rb924119 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:45 am

Ok folks, here is my first call for this system (PLEASE NOTE THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY 00Z DATA):



I'm sure most of you on here think I am absolutely insane for making one this early, but I try to issue my first calls as far out in advance as I feel comfortable with my thoughts, which varies from storm to storm, but is usually two to three days out. That said, they are not just whimsical guesses. I have factored in multiple facets including the pattern around the Northern Hemisphere, influences that exist or might exist closer to home, model biases, model data, and climatology, all blended with my interpretation of the aforementioned factors and how I think they will impact the eventual outcome of our system. In this case, my analysis leads me to believe that we will see this system trend colder and more progressive (further south and east) as we continue to draw closer to the onset, with the corresponding axis of heaviest precipitation shifted further east than current modeling suggests. While I do think it will turn out colder than what is currently being modeled, I DO NOT think it will be enough to bring meaningful accumulations to the I-95 corridor and points east. HOWEVER, that DOES NOT mean that those regions will not see any wintry precipitation; I just am not expecting it accumulate at this time. Where this system does remain mostly/all snow, and where the axis of heaviest precipitation sets up, I do think Warning criteria snowfall totals will be met.

Timing will be:

Start: 6-9am, 15th November, southern zones | 6-9pm, 15th November, northern zones
End: 10am-1pm, 16th November, western zones | 1-4pm, 16th November, eastern zones

This system will come in two parts; an initial warm-air advection shield followed by an intense frontogensis band on the backside forced by very strong lower- and mid-level temperature advection. Both rounds of precipitation will likely feature periods of moderate to heavy precipitation, so where it snows, be prepared for lowered visibilities with impressive rates of accumulation. Even though the cross-model mean liquid equivalent ranges from 09-1.7" per 12z guidance, given expected snowfall ratios that will be less than prime, along with warm ground conditions, accumulations will be slower than what might otherwise be expected, and are the reasons why I am not confident in going higher at this time. Other uncertainties, such as those directly related to my assumptions on eventual track (thermal profiles, etc.) are also in the back of my mind, but I feel decently confident in this as of now.

If anybody has any detailed questions for me about this, please feel free to ask!! It's just getting pretty late and I'm getting tired, so I tried to keep it short and simple haha

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by 2004blackwrx on Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:52 am

Love that we are talking snow again. The oak trees in my area are full of leaves so any snow could lead to power outages.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:50 am

Last nights EURO trended colder. Northern half of Jersey with warning criteria snows.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:11 am

All these snow maps of fun to look at while I think we snow even down to the coast for a period of time probably three to five hours Thursday evening how much accumulation is still in question at the coast I believe we going to have a strong warm air advection snows so it could be coming down hard enough to stick before the flip to rain I like rb map. I would just bring it a little further south to put the New York City area in the 1 to 3 inch range. Nice to have an early-season storm to track
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:12 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:Last nights EURO trended colder. Northern half of Jersey with warning criteria snows.
Yes to have the Euro cold is a positive sign 850 so much colder then the last several runs and have been getting progressively colder
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:21 am

algae888 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Last nights EURO trended colder. Northern half of Jersey with warning criteria snows.
Yes to have the Euro cold is a positive sign 850 so much colder then the last several runs and have been getting progressively colder
What makes this all the more interesting is that the EURO has a bias for warm thermals.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:39 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
algae888 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Last nights EURO trended colder. Northern half of Jersey with warning criteria snows.
Yes to have the Euro cold is a positive sign 850 so much colder then the last several runs and have been getting progressively colder
What makes this all the more interesting is that the EURO has a bias for warm thermals.
I think everyone would take this in a heartbeat wow. Yes I understand the coast issues but one thing I know this will stick to trees and leaves which we very much still have though they are falling but I think there would still b power outages. We can do without that. Let this happen verbatim 6 inches of snow NYC area Nov 15th 16th when was last time that happened if this verified?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:28 am

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
algae888 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Last nights EURO trended colder. Northern half of Jersey with warning criteria snows.
Yes to have the Euro cold is a positive sign 850 so much colder then the last several runs and have been getting progressively colder
What makes this all the more interesting is that the EURO has a bias for warm thermals.
I think everyone would take this in a heartbeat wow. Yes I understand the coast issues but one thing I know this will stick to trees and leaves which we very much still have though they are falling but I think there would still b power outages. We can do without that. Let this happen verbatim 6 inches of snow NYC area Nov 15th 16th when was last time that happened if this verified?

It was only 6 years ago, and it was even ten days earlier than this.

On November 6-7, 2012, Central Park recorded 4.7 inches during that post Sandy snow storm, but many areas of the city recorded 8 inches from that storm. I was in Queens the day after and there was at least 8 inches, maybe a little more.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:09 am

NAM shows 1 to 3 inches for areas away from the cities and coast. Less than an inch for cities and coast. Still looks like many are in line to see their first snow of the season Thursday. It is likely to start around 3pm.

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:09 am

Not sure I understand what the Euro seems to want to pick up on that the rest are not? Seven inches of snow for my area with this type of setup doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:06 pm

A lot of CAD
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:55 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:A lot of CAD

Just seems like the warm air aloft should overrun the CAD pretty quickly at onset in my area (Hunterdon County). I think the Euro is vastly overstating the CAD aspect on this one.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:09 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:A lot of CAD

Just seems like the warm air aloft should overrun the CAD pretty quickly at onset in my area (Hunterdon County). I think the Euro is vastly overstating the CAD aspect on this one.

Not sure but I think A lot has to do with track if further east cold air hangs on longer
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:38 pm

NAM!!!!!!!!!
WAA storms are much faster than progged so teh fast erit move sin the more snow thumps the area. Look atthis CAD - dont discount the HP in WNY to NE track

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by amugs on Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:39 pm


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by hyde345 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:49 pm

How much did latest Euro give area?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:51 pm

hyde345 wrote:How much did latest Euro give area?
A general 4 to 8 in across the area but some of that is sleet New National Weather Service maps are out 2 to 4 in pretty much from the city north and west latest Nam looks fantastic
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by algae888 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:00 pm

Low-level easterly winds are going to be very weak through most of the day Thursday will have little influence on temperatures I believe until the system gets cranking as it gets closer to us. Dew points in the teens we will wet bulb very nicely with heavy precipitation moving in under the WAA. That should cool the column even more and keep it cold until the storm gets closer to us or precipitation starts to taper off as we dry slot I'm looking for a nice front end thump of snow. The big question is how much would stick during daylight hours that's the biggest factor to keep accumulations down in my opinion
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:31 pm

Interesting setup. We could even see some flakes here in the city! While I see it changing to rain quickly here, I could see places north and west getting in on some steady snow, sleet, and freezing rain Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening!

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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:35 pm

algae888 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:How much did latest Euro give area?
A general 4 to 8 in across the area but some of that is sleet New National Weather Service maps are out 2 to 4 in pretty much from the city north and west latest Nam looks fantastic
sounds good to me Wahoo. Do you think school will get out early in white plains? I'm up there now.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:40 pm

amugs wrote:
that's pretty late 7pm no? I thought this starts midday or early afternoon?
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Nov 13, 2018 4:47 pm

Euro has most areas seeing 6 to 8 even southern Westchester. This will b wet so with still many leaves and some gusty winds to 30mph looks like we could have problems.
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Re: First Wintry Event - 11/15 to 11/16

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