JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

So Ocean County can really only see 1-2”? With it going to be that cold is 1-2” really all we see?

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FWIW the latest SREFs look like the UKMET/Euro/NAM. That’s a good sign at this range. VERY GOOD SIGN.

Madonne at the ECM suite. I'm not sure I can buy into the ice threat yet. I feel like ice and wind forecasts never work out for our area. I'm with Scott, let's see what another 2 days of model runs bring because 2 days is an eternity in the weather world.

What is it with all of this common sense and reason? There's models and maps that will probably change half a dozen more times before they give us an accurate picture to lose our collective minds over.

NWS latest qpf forecast calls for 1.5”-2.5” forum wide. Day 4 and 5 probabilities of 4”+ snow too

HE SAID THE “M” WORD!!!!

Check out how the banana High Pressure to the north presses down on the low pressure system as it attempts to come up the coast. Other then lack of phasing, the reason we have a storm tracking south and off our coast rather than cut west of us is because of this 'press' which is generated from the -EPO.

These are EURO maps by the way







Check out the ridge break on the EURO. Look over the Hudson Bay

18z NAM coming in hot with the front-end

And still coming down for NNJ / N&W NYC

FWIW there’s the jet correction on the NAM I was looking for earlier lol the precip is vastly underdone still, though. That will correct if the jet remains with the look it has on 18z. Very impressive run, imo.

The 850 temps start climbing the last 3-6 hours or so. Change over or potential ice problems later on?

The NAM at hour 84 though...

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne at the ECM suite. I'm not sure I can buy into the ice threat yet. I feel like ice and wind forecasts never work out for our area. I'm with Scott, let's see what another 2 days of model runs bring because 2 days is an eternity in the weather world.

THIS. Following along quietly and kinda pissed I'll be in Alberta for our first potential >6" snow of the season. But this is a poignant post. I cannot find a damaging ice storm for NYC's 5 boroughs in recorded history. If anyone can, please post. North of I-84 or even northern Westchester over into NNJ north of I-80, I could see ice accretion causing issues. But south and east of that? I just don't buy it. Also, precip rates matter. Achieving over an inch of accretion in less than 6 hours (a la Euro) is hard to physically accomplish.

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne at the ECM suite. I'm not sure I can buy into the ice threat yet. I feel like ice and wind forecasts never work out for our area. I'm with Scott, let's see what another 2 days of model runs bring because 2 days is an eternity in the weather world.

THIS. Following along quietly and kinda pissed I'll be in Alberta for our first potential >6" snow of the season. But this is a poignant post. I cannot find a damaging ice storm for NYC's 5 boroughs in recorded history. If anyone can, please post. North of I-84 or even northern Westchester over into NNJ north of I-80, I could see ice accretion causing issues. But south and east of that? I just don't buy it. Also, precip rates matter. Achieving over an inch of accretion in less than 6 hours (a la Euro) is hard to physically accomplish.

I was
Living on the queens Nassau border 1993/1994 was the year. 100% remember a freezing rain storm
Dropping 1/2” easy. I lived 1 mile from Mikey (math). He will remember the date. But I promise you. Also remember another one a few years earlier than that!

18z ICON

sroc4 wrote:

does anyone have a minute to give a quick overview of what this model is

Is that ICON graphic all snow? Does it include sleet/freezing rain?

syosnow94 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonne at the ECM suite. I'm not sure I can buy into the ice threat yet. I feel like ice and wind forecasts never work out for our area. I'm with Scott, let's see what another 2 days of model runs bring because 2 days is an eternity in the weather world.

THIS. Following along quietly and kinda pissed I'll be in Alberta for our first potential >6" snow of the season. But this is a poignant post. I cannot find a damaging ice storm for NYC's 5 boroughs in recorded history. If anyone can, please post. North of I-84 or even northern Westchester over into NNJ north of I-80, I could see ice accretion causing issues. But south and east of that? I just don't buy it. Also, precip rates matter. Achieving over an inch of accretion in less than 6 hours (a la Euro) is hard to physically accomplish.

I was
Living on the queens Nassau border 1993/1994 was the year. 100% remember a freezing rain storm
Dropping 1/2” easy. I lived 1 mile from Mikey (math). He will remember the date. But I promise you. Also remember another one a few years earlier than that!

Did you lose power/were there mass outages? Extensive tree damage? I Google ice storms from where I'm from and there are whole articles/reports on them. Can't find one from around here. The last one New Hampshire saw knocked out power to much of the state (over half million people) and still stands as the worst outage for the state to date. They are not fun at all.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

does anyone have a minute to give a quick overview of what this model is

The EURO Ensembles. Scott is showing that majority are off S&E of us - allowing for NNE flow and cold air to stay locked in place.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is that ICON graphic all snow? Does it include sleet/freezing rain?

Here is the better snow map. There is significant icing for CNJ/NNJ/NYC verbatim based off the other map I posted.

skins...we screwed yup

IMHO the models overdue the effects of the oceans on the accumulation. The wind will be from the north and with the ridiculous cold and now cold sea surface temps this needs to be watched

Frank_Wx wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

does anyone have a minute to give a quick overview of what this model is

The EURO Ensembles. Scott is showing that majority are off S&E of us - allowing for NNE flow and cold air to stay locked in place.

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Is that ICON graphic all snow? Does it include sleet/freezing rain?

Here is the better snow map. There is significant icing for CNJ/NNJ/NYC verbatim based off the other map I posted.

so this map is purely snow and the difference in qpf is the amount of ice? Is that what you are saying? That's crazy. I agree with u its hard to believe but I agree with the yet statement.

Icon doesn't have a frz map? These snow qpf maps are so confusing when trying figure out what's snow and whats not. So if I'm right between the two icon maps just north of NYC sees about 7 to 10 snow and about 2.0 ice accretion?! 2.7 to 3.0 qpf total if my math is right. This is verbatim of course.

There are substantial differences between the GFS and NAM/EURO at 500mb Saturday morning. The NAM clearly shows a slower southern stream energy dug into the US-MX border, while the GFS shows greater consolidation of the PVA at the base of the trough. This allows its trough to be more neutral, thus allowing heights to rise faster along the EC and creating a path for the low to track west. A positively tilted trough with heights pointed toward the ocean is what we want.

Part of the story - and I am surprised how little its been talked about here - is the life threatening cold to follow this storm on Monday. Areas who do see 6"+ of snow and some ice better consider shoveling as it's falling from the sky. Because it will freeze over. Temps valid 7am Monday are in the single digits, with wind chills from -15 to -25 below. INSANITY!!

I have to shovel through the storm I have a injured shoulder and am go have do at most a few inches at a time. That is assuming I'm not on a ice skating rink while trying.