Re: Banter Thread 5.0

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:08 am

frank 638 wrote:Why is it every time we get a storm and it always has to be rain I was looking forward for a snowstorm on Tuesday but unfortunately doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for my area I hope this is not the trendFor our winter

don't give up yet look at mugs explanations about the models. But the 22nd 23rd looks like a lot more potential.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Why is it every time we get a storm and it always has to be rain I was looking forward for a snowstorm on Tuesday but unfortunately doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for my area I hope this is not the trendFor our winter
don't give up yet look at mugs explanations about the models. But the 22nd 23rd looks like a lot more potential.

Bad overnight trends for Monday night Tuesday. The 0Z's bad the 6Z's worse. There is time to trend back though but not that much time.

by **mikeypizano** Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:39 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:Why is it every time we get a storm and it always has to be rain I was looking forward for a snowstorm on Tuesday but unfortunately doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for my area I hope this is not the trendFor our winter
don't give up yet look at mugs explanations about the models. But the 22nd 23rd looks like a lot more potential.

Bad overnight trends for Monday night Tuesday. The 0Z's bad the 6Z's worse. There is time to trend back though but not that much time.

Sadly, it seems that this happens almost every storm! Perhaps I should print out the GFS runs and use them as targets at the range tomorrow. Laughing

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:48 am

Looks like we're getting Mugzillad on this storm as promised. The only problem is the concentration appears to be on the Mugging not the Zilla.

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Looks like we're getting Mugzillad on this storm as promised. The only problem is the concentration appears to be on the Mugging not the Zilla.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:03 am

Next!!! Yet again I get skunked..well most of us do.... man I can't even get freezing rain that's sad. It's literally 20 miles or so to my north. Not that that's a good thing but jeeze all it does is rain. That's it I'm done....fir now.

by **mikeypizano** Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:Next!!! Yet again I get skunked..well most of us do.... man I can't even get freezing rain that's sad. It's literally 20 miles or so to my north. Not that that's a good thing but jeeze all it does is rain. That's it I'm done....fir now.

Gee what a shock...

by **dkodgis** Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:52 am

CP, you are witty as always.

The storm to our south may give us something around the 22nd.

As many have said, I prefer rain or snow to ice. I see the projection maps showing .33 of ice for my neck of the woods. As Mugs said, .10 inch of ice is something.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:31 pm

Click the link for exciting news!

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1006-winter-meet-up

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:23 am

dkodgis wrote:What he said.

I have the same as Doc. Nothing fell but a little sleet, just enough to ice-glaze everything. It will be a high of 32. Maybe that glaze stays around for a while.

What he said about what he said.

29.8° and what started as a great December with 13 straight days of nice snow cover is turning ugly. If you reversed this December and made the last 13 days what the first 13 were that's an A to me, now it's sinking into C territory. Long range not looking great.

All that talk about the big Storm the 22nd I never bought into. Anything 10 days out, which it was at that time is guesswork IMO.

From henceforth a Muggzilla shall be known as a fantasy storm that looks to bring significant snows 10 days out, a front end decent thump of snow followed by icing 5 days out, and a glaze of ice, you can take it and shove it, with no snow on the actual day.

As I said several days ago and unfortunately it came to fruition this Mugzilla was heavy on the Mugging and light on the zilla. The 22nd storm unfortunately is a Nozilla.

I'm taking a break.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:32 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm taking a break.

That is why you need to do what I do, find a nice gun range and blast away the pent up stress of not getting any snow. Just use a 22, much cheaper Wink

[/quote]

by **Artechmetals** Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:41 am

CP I agree this season is starting to look very ugly ! Models are so clueless , for me not even worth looking at . So the 22nd was so hyped up and we getting nothing

very frustrating

by **dkodgis** Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:08 am

Any weather model=roulette wheel

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:33 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
dkodgis wrote:What he said.

I have the same as Doc. Nothing fell but a little sleet, just enough to ice-glaze everything. It will be a high of 32. Maybe that glaze stays around for a while.

What he said about what he said.

29.8° and what started as a great December with 13 straight days of nice snow cover is turning ugly. If you reversed this December and made the last 13 days what the first 13 were that's an A to me, now it's sinking into C territory. Long range not looking great.

All that talk about the big Storm the 22nd I never bought into. Anything 10 days out, which it was at that time is guesswork IMO.

From henceforth a Muggzilla shall be known as a fantasy storm that looks to bring significant snows 10 days out, a front end decent thump of snow followed by icing 5 days out, and a glaze of ice, you can take it and shove it, with no snow on the actual day.

As I said several days ago and unfortunately it came to fruition this Mugzilla was heavy on the Mugging and light on the zilla. The 22nd storm unfortunately is a Nozilla.

I'm taking a break.

Agree, CP, this has turned ugly.
From early November on, the pattern I have noticed on the CONUS NWS maps is snowstorm after snowstorm hitting the North Central areas.Storms are cutting to our west or just weak Miller B's with slop hitting our area.Until that breaks, I don't expect a big snowstorm in our area.We were lucky in the LHV to get that 12 inches of snow in early December.
As dismal as this has become, there is a LOT of snowtime left.It's not even winter yet.In past years, snow didn't get started until late December-early January.

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:35 am

dkodgis wrote:Any weather model=roulette wheel

LOL, Damian, I can see a couple of game hosts like Pat and Vanna spinning a wheel with slots reading, blizzard,slop, suppression, dry slot,warm nose on it.

Winter Wheel Of Fortune.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:13 pm

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUGS...

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:15 pm

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUGSY!!

by **sroc4** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:19 pm

Not sure if everyone checked over in the non weather banter thread but Janet, (Dunnzoo) has organized a meet up for food and drinks fo Sat January 18th at 4pm in the city. Here is the link to rsvp and check out the place we are meeting. There are many of you Id love to meet in person and many who Id love to meet again.

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1006-winter-meet-up#151630

by **jimv45** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:19 pm

Happy Birthday Mugs, and glad you are doing well!!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:26 pm

Happy birthday Mugsy can't wait to see everyone next month!! Hope you all can make it Smile

by **docstox12** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:31 pm

Happy Birthday Mugs!!!!!

by **frank 638** Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:59 pm

Happy birthday

mugs I hope everything is good with you

by **oldtimer** Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:31 pm

Happy Birthday amugs. Best of health wealth and a Big Liquid Gold here in Port Jefferson. So how is it turning 60?

by **Grselig** Wed Dec 18, 2019 6:57 am

Happy birthday Mugs!

by **Grselig** Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:06 am

Seems we are experiencing shades of last year. Big storm signal that goes away for our backyard. Long term potential that faded. I know it’s mid December, but I see the outline of a panic button

by **docstox12** Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:10 am

Grselig wrote:Seems we are experiencing shades of last year. Big storm signal that goes away for our backyard. Long term potential that faded. I know it’s mid December, but I see the outline of a panic button

It's very early but I agree with you.Not liking the pattern at all so far.Big rainstorms then slop.I just got lucky being in the LHV with the one snowstorm earlier this month.It was not widespread.

by **heehaw453** Wed Dec 18, 2019 7:32 am

Context.

He was concerned about snowfall forecast of general 2-6" which obviously didn't come to fruition. Went offline at 8 and said snow forecast was on track which was just not regarding observations.

Predicting the weather in particular snowfall is such a humbling experience. Maybe a better reaction would be sorry guys i missed this one?

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