2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Page 1 of 17 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17  Next

Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Mon May 20, 2019 5:03 pm

Well there is the first code red.  I have looked at zero details but its there.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_atl_2d0

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Tue May 21, 2019 10:09 am

40 mph winds and min pressure of 1007 mb. Drifting north but appears to soon be heading east OTS, likely missing Bermuda to the south on its current projection. Should weaken as it does so.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:23 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at10
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4374
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:54 pm

If this 200mb map is correct then we will have to wait until at least July before we see anything develop of significance tropical wise. Warm colors = upper air convergence which leads to surface air divergence which = not conducive for trop development. Notice the trop Atlantic is bathed in the wwarm colors for the next two weeks..IF the forecast is correct. Weak El Nino likely a key player as to why. 

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:35 pm

This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.


2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at11
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Snow88 on Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:44 am

Euro has a Cat 1 into the border of LA and TX at 144 hours
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2088
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 31
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by GreyBeard on Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.


2019 TROPICAL SEASON Two_at11

Nice call jman. Came across this today. Offers a good explanation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/look-out-gulf-coast-residents-you-may-be-hit-with-the-first-tropical-system-of-the-season/ar-AADZnq4?ocid=SK2HDHP

GreyBeard
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 436
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : Eastern Nassau County

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Tue Jul 09, 2019 1:47 pm

Tis' the season. Been quiet on the Atlantic side thus far (not all that unusual for June-early July), so due to start popping a bit in the next few weeks as we approach the peak season.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:07 am

Looks like the storm will be supercharged by the seasonably warm waters.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 994
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:06 pm

It is progged to be a 85mph hurricane into louisiana but its moving so slowly I am very affraid of a repeat of a few years ago for 50 inches of rain.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:14 pm

I think the wind impacts are minimal with this (for a hurricane) but those rain projections are horrific. And there is no place worse for 30-plus inches of rain than southeast Louisiana/New Orleans.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Snow88 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:54 pm

The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2088
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 31
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:41 am

State of emergency now in Louisiana
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 994
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:50 pm

Tropical Storm Barry it is. 40 mph winds, 1006 mb pressure. Presently forecast to make it to Cat One by landfall with rain and flooding the major concerns.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Joe Snow on Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:43 pm

Snow88 wrote:The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.

very very true..............

https://www.seatemperature.org/
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 786
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:24 pm

And I hope in two weeks, no storm hits Florida because I have to go there
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 994
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:56 pm

Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

2019 TROPICAL SEASON A951f310
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 96e45f10
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 1f360910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON F587d210
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 88aed610


rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4942
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

2019 TROPICAL SEASON A951f310
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 96e45f10
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 1f360910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON F587d210
2019 TROPICAL SEASON 88aed610


thats not by any chance ryan hannrahan from CT news is it? I went to high school with that guy (not fond of him, have a few choice words, not about him as a meterologist but as a person I grew up with briefly. If it is tell him jon manley says hi, see if he remembers me.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:45 am

No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4942
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:02 am

Barry hits minimal Cat One status at landfall. Not that it matters much as the rain will be the main factor here, not winds. 75 mph winds 993 mb.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:07 am

Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:08 am

So the bad is yet to come?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 994
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:06 pm

Could we be seeing a secondary circulation manifesting in response to the deeper convection offshore, as discussed above? Not entirely sure, but the below radar image might be trying to hint at that (annotation in red), and this seemingly matches recent satellite imagery.....time will tell. In general, though, I just find the evolution of this system very odd lol


rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4942
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by rb924119 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:10 pm

billg315 wrote:Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.

I would almost be willing to argue that it hasn’t actually landfalled yet. But I agree with your sentiments of intrigue haha

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4942
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm

LR GFS has a hurricane into the big bend of FL then up the EC into PA as it rains itself out. Maybe we will be having something to watch but way to far out now.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 17 1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum