2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Well there is the first code red.  I have looked at zero details but its there.

40 mph winds and min pressure of 1007 mb. Drifting north but appears to soon be heading east OTS, likely missing Bermuda to the south on its current projection. Should weaken as it does so.

If this 200mb map is correct then we will have to wait until at least July before we see anything develop of significance tropical wise. Warm colors = upper air convergence which leads to surface air divergence which = not conducive for trop development. Notice the trop Atlantic is bathed in the wwarm colors for the next two weeks..IF the forecast is correct. Weak El Nino likely a key player as to why. 

This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.

Euro has a Cat 1 into the border of LA and TX at 144 hours

jmanley32 wrote:This is a first and no its not a mistake, theres an area to watch over the central US moving to the GOM. 20% in the 5 day 0% in the 2 day.

Nice call jman. Came across this today. Offers a good explanation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/look-out-gulf-coast-residents-you-may-be-hit-with-the-first-tropical-system-of-the-season/ar-AADZnq4?ocid=SK2HDHP

Tis' the season. Been quiet on the Atlantic side thus far (not all that unusual for June-early July), so due to start popping a bit in the next few weeks as we approach the peak season.

It is progged to be a 85mph hurricane into louisiana but its moving so slowly I am very affraid of a repeat of a few years ago for 50 inches of rain.

I think the wind impacts are minimal with this (for a hurricane) but those rain projections are horrific. And there is no place worse for 30-plus inches of rain than southeast Louisiana/New Orleans.

The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.

Tropical Storm Barry it is. 40 mph winds, 1006 mb pressure. Presently forecast to make it to Cat One by landfall with rain and flooding the major concerns.

Snow88 wrote:The Atlantic has to watch out moving forward. The waters are very warm.

very very true..............

https://www.seatemperature.org/

Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

rb924119 wrote:Not sure if there’s a separate discussion elsewhere, but just some food for thought on an otherwise boring day lol discussion is between myself (blue) and a met-friend of mine (white):

thats not by any chance ryan hannrahan from CT news is it? I went to high school with that guy (not fond of him, have a few choice words, not about him as a meterologist but as a person I grew up with briefly. If it is tell him jon manley says hi, see if he remembers me.

No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!

Barry hits minimal Cat One status at landfall. Not that it matters much as the rain will be the main factor here, not winds. 75 mph winds 993 mb.

Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.

Could we be seeing a secondary circulation manifesting in response to the deeper convection offshore, as discussed above? Not entirely sure, but the below radar image might be trying to hint at that (annotation in red), and this seemingly matches recent satellite imagery.....time will tell. In general, though, I just find the evolution of this system very odd lol

billg315 wrote:Not sure I’ve seen a tropical system where it’s so hard to pick out the center on radar/satellite; and where virtually all the precipitation is south of the center.

I would almost be willing to argue that it hasn’t actually landfalled yet. But I agree with your sentiments of intrigue haha

LR GFS has a hurricane into the big bend of FL then up the EC into PA as it rains itself out. Maybe we will be having something to watch but way to far out now.