2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:19 pm

Well damn 12z euro same track as 00z. That's a very concerning track especially since I'll be flying back from Florida on 19th. Rb what makes u think in simple terms the euro couldn't be right and drive it right into nj? Not saying I'm wishing this but it's not impossible.
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Post by mwilli on Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:03 pm

5 p.m advisory :potential tropical storm 9 hitting northwest of the bahamas friday/saturday also tropical winds/rainfall east of florida,80% chance of this becoming a depression

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Well damn 12z euro same track as 00z. That's a very concerning track especially since I'll be flying back from Florida on 19th. Rb what makes u think in simple terms the euro couldn't be right and drive it right into nj? Not saying I'm wishing this but it's not impossible.

It could for sure be right, I just think it’s main problem is that it’s overplaying the ridge and underplaying the trough. The UKMET is pretty much exactly what I think: Just enough trough impart enough westerly momentum to keep the storm ahead of the leading edge of the ridge. If it gets trapped, then we are probably looking at a Dorian-esque type track except at our latitude, not that of the Bahamas. The point in time where the system may or may not interact with the trough is going to be the key to the whole evolution of the track north of Georgia, and that won’t be known for another several days.

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Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:08 pm

It's heart-wrenching to see Tropical Storm Warnings just hoisted for Grand Bahama and Abacos Islands. What a dire situation there as they are still looking for THOUSANDS missing. Unbelievable.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 882f0810
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Post by amugs on Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:36 pm

Rb great write up and thank you for sharing. There is still so much to be worked out and any little tweak of jog as we know with these systems can have huge affects down the road.
JB pretty nailed Dorian as yuo did and this time he has three tracks one inland up through GA and bring us rains, one the comes up the coast and into LI and one that recurves out to sea - playing the hedge on this?? He favors up teh coast due to the weakness of the Storm and the pressure it will feel from the H5 HP that will be situated of SE Canada and a surface HIGH that will be over NE.

MJO going into a favorable phase for EC trop cyclone activity
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 ECMF_phase_51m_small(449)

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Post by Joe Snow on Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:49 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 Humber10

From Ryan Maue on Twitter Saying "Next week gonna be lit"

He knows weather weenies gonna go nuts with 2 to track.............
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Post by amugs on Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:45 pm

This gonna be a wild 3 week stretch incoming for peeps from Gulf states to novia scotia and the British isles. And us weenies!!

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Post by amugs on Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:46 pm

Joe Snow wrote:2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 Humber10

From Ryan Maue on Twitter Saying "Next week gonna be lit"

He knows weather weenies gonna go nuts with 2 to track.............

Fujiwara effect possibly??

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:40 pm

Even Levi mentioned the possibility of a capture and pull up the coast lightly. He never goes so far to even mention that so far in advance. Will be curious to see what euro continues to show. Levi feels gfs is wrong not developing it but says its possible. Poor grand Bahamas jeeze. Do you guys think I could possibly run into flight issues next week? Leaving from ny on 17th to palm coast for mother in laws funeral returning 19th to ny
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Post by Joe Snow on Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:10 pm

Joe Snow wrote:I know it's way out.................

But the 12 Z GFS is showing a 954 mb storm at our door step on the 18th -19th time frame, and it's not a snowstorm.

Puts it at a Cat 3

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Band of thunderstorms organization off the African Coast has a 90% chance of TC formation..........

AGAIN IT"S A VERY LONG WAY OFF.............

GFS Hinted at this system way back on the 3rd..............Just saying
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Post by Joe Snow on Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:15 pm

amugs wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 Humber10

From Ryan Maue on Twitter Saying "Next week gonna be lit"

He knows weather weenies gonna go nuts with 2 to track.............

Fujiwara effect possibly??

Hell that would send every weather weenie out there in a tizzy...........It would be like hurricane crack for the weenies
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:48 pm

So I guess per Frank's post in Sept. Thread there's no chance to be humberto will affect us? Even though euro has shown it to a few times? So it's one of the latter systems currently at moderate chance way out in eastern atlantic? if anything?
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:20 am

Lots to track2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 16 Fb_img18
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:50 am

Looks like Humberto will stay safely OTS
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:08 am

Yep looks like all storms atm are going to go ots well before getting near the us
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Post by amugs on Sat Sep 14, 2019 10:16 pm

1/3 of EPS members take humberto westward into the SE USA. Still a majority lean to OTS but interesting to see that more members are clustering westward than from 0 and 6z

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:00 pm

18z mugsy. I’ll wait for the 00z suites to compare lol

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Sep 15, 2019 12:21 am

Yeahhh, I'm not sold on Humberto's fate just yet... scratch

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:32 am

Uh oh and I'm flying to Florida Wednesday..
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:45 am

rb924119 wrote:18z mugsy. I’ll wait for the 00z suites to compare lol
18z hrs? Or euro? Where do you find 18z euro I have weatherbell and they don't have them. I'm losing weatherbell after my subscription ends.

Added 12:45pm: I do not see any indication except OTS, the NHC would have to make a complete reverse of the cone west for it to hit EC and I do not think I have ever seen that much of a change in their cone.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:57 pm

Okay I am going to go out on a limb here and say the latest runs look scary trying to pull a sandy left hook as it reaches mid atlanic latitude but quickly gets kicked out after traveling west briefly, is it possible he doesnt get kicked out?
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Okay I am going to go out on a limb here and say the latest runs look scary trying to pull a sandy left hook as it reaches mid atlanic latitude but quickly gets kicked out after traveling west briefly, is it possible he doesnt get kicked out?

I think weathermaps.com has them, but I cannot access them. What models are you looking at? The GEM and NAVGEM? There are three GFS ensemble members that do it, though still well out to sea, and maybe 15 of the EURO Ensemble members (where about half of those say that Humberto should start making a loop back to the south about now lol). I think this is just the models doing their usual dance, and continue to believe that this poses no threat the U.S. Not to mention the hurricane models also continue to show no such threat. Not saying that it can’t, but given the pattern evolution I just don’t see and trust the consensus.

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