Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:09 am

How many times have we seen our crocuses and daffodils and forsythia covered with snow? We all know this can happen. I was thinking the other day that the stock market is for long-term investments but we seem to pay too much attention to the market all the time (Doc, I bet you are falling off your chair, laughing!); I am starting to feel that way about the weather. I am paying too much attention to it, trying to get wish snow into my life for the inner kid in me. Next Thursday's weather is like horses off on the race; as we get closer, our fortunes rise and fall. Which will it be?
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:19 am

That offshore shortwave energy on 12Z GFS is very close to interacting with the northern stream in a decent spot for us.  We are not getting an ideal phase here due to lack of blocking (+AO/+NAO), but I could definitely see this blowing up a bit closer to us before it tries to lift out.  This is like tantalizing close.

I see path to good snow two ways (both rather low probability ATTM IMO):

1.  Get the western ridge a hair sharper to force the northern stream down faster.
2.  A bit more influence from the departing transient low to slow the atmosphere down.


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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:46 am

Thinking some white rain is very possible for Friday evening. Hopefully the March flow acts in our favor, but I just don't see the departing low slowing things down that much or the ridge becoming sharp enough to make a difference. I anticipate mood flakes on Friday night, which is better than nothing I suppose.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 am

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:Thinking some white rain is very possible for Friday evening. Hopefully the March flow acts in our favor, but I just don't see the departing low slowing things down that much or the ridge becoming sharp enough to make a difference. I anticipate mood flakes on Friday night, which is better than nothing I suppose.
Definitely. We'd be well below freezing above 2000 feet, but the surface temps well above 32 for white rain. For now I think you are spot on unless we see some changes at the 500mb. Won't take drastic changes, but changes nonetheless.

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:02 pm

Euro ensembles have quite a few with significant hits. Maybe 20-25% of them. That is more than I would have thought. Plus still four days out. Not holding my breath but certainly bears continued watching until the proverbial Lucy with the football action begins.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:55 pm

Most likely this will be minimal if any impact to us.  

No cold antecedent air mass means this storm is going to have to crank to allow for dynamic cooling right down to the surface which will be most difficult to cool.  We also are battling a +AO/+NAO (albeit somewhat relaxed) which means slowing the atmosphere isn't coming easy and no real cold press.  But we keep seeing a decent amount (~50%) of EPS split out significant impacts (>= 4") because synoptically this isn't a bad setup.  That transient low (slow atmosphere a tad) and that western ridge (PNA) may make it work, albeit not likely.  IMO this would be damn near a slam dunk with even moderately negative NAO.  But alas...

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Post by GreyBeard on Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:19 pm


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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:38 pm


I would say barely a glimmer. The way things have been this year, I can for sure see scenario #1, snow to the north and south, nada here. Of course, the meet-up is Saturday, and we had to cancel the last one due to a weather event, what are the odds? geek


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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:06 am

Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area. The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18. Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:25 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.  

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area.  The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.  

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18.  Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

Its over
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:54 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Hear ye, hear ye stick the fork in ye threat.  

The spacing of the northern stream and southern stream shortwave energy isn't going to allow for any meaningful impact to our area.  The atmospheric flow is just too fast to overcome compliments of our perpetual +NAM state.

A long shot it was and the same impact it becomes la garbage in the winter as such.  

GEFS tries to show some mild -NAO towards March 18.  Just think it'll be too little too late around here and ye old snow books are getting ready to close.

Its over

Yes. Hibernation is coming early this year.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:38 pm

I've always been a bit contrarian, even if only to be proven wrong for it. As much as I want to say "it's over" because frankly I'm sick of this (lack of) winter and ready to move onto Spring . . . I am still watching March 12. There is definitely a system consistently showing up just off or on the Mid-Atlantic coast on that date. The exact location has bounced back and forth but just north and west of it, it is consistently showing cold and frankly lots of snow and frozen precip. If the positioning of such a system were just right, it could be that sneaky "one storm in a bad pattern" we've been looking for. Is it likely the way this winter has gone? No. But I won't write it off yet. Because without hope, what have we?
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:15 pm

@billg315 wrote:I've always been a bit contrarian, even if only to be proven wrong for it. As much as I want to say "it's over" because frankly I'm sick of this (lack of) winter and ready to move onto Spring . . . I am still watching March 12. There is definitely a system consistently showing up just off or on the Mid-Atlantic coast on that date. The exact location has bounced back and forth but just north and west of it, it is consistently showing cold and frankly lots of snow and frozen precip. If the positioning of such a system were just right, it could be that sneaky "one storm in a bad pattern" we've been looking for. Is it likely the way this winter has gone? No. But I won't write it off yet. Because without hope, what have we?

I’m right there with you Bill. And even those who have written it off likely haven’t written it off.

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:36 am

Still a chance for mood flakes for Frid/Sat

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:55 am

Definitely Bill always a chance that Mother Nature will surprise us especially in March. GEFS definitely has some support for a storm during that 3/12 time frame and so does EPS to some extent, but based on climatology, the 500mb NAM state and what model ensembles are showing currently I'm thinking more wet than white.

The GFS operational has a nasty habit of showing a cold and snowy solution at this range.


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Post by billg315 on Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:53 am

Yeah I'm far from betting the house on it. But, I can't keep my eyes off those seductive GFS runs.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:46 am

FWIW and it's probably way too early for any op analysis, but season is coming to an end, so why not?  The Euro has definitely trended more towards the GFS w.r.t. to 3/12 threat window.  Just a few days ago it didn't have the storm.  Then it had it, but the short wave energy was way NW of us.  Now the short wave energy is "pretty close" (at this range) to where the GFS has it.  GFS has been steadfast that it cuts underneath us.

The surface difference between the two is rain (Euro) versus significant snow (GFS).

The differences at this point is the ridge as shown in pictures. GFS has a sharp one allowing for digging trough, while Euro is flat allowing for more northerly trajectory of the short wave.  Also noted in both cases the short wave is robust and there is a good connected moisture supply. So ATTM watch it and wait for trends.

GFS
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Euro
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Moisture supply 700mb
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:43 am

Speaking of trends, high temps look lovely for the next 10 days
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Post by amugs on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:17 pm

Where in the great of land of Noah was this this winter?? Snow in April for some, good possibility! Once this breaks down the SE ridge will flex its muscle and we will warm...rapidly. Go from winterish to summer when the breakdown is over.
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