Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Still need to keep an eye on soon to be Isaias. While a lot of models don't develop Isaias into a hurricane as they did a few days ago, the NAVGEM, UKMET, and some GFS ensembles still do. And going off the GFS ensembles, the more developed and stronger solutions are the ones that are brought up the coast. The weaker solutions go into Florida and the gulf, but with not much to steer this system out to sea at the moment, the east coast should be on high alert if Isaias strengthens more than anticipated.

Sanchize06 wrote:Still need to keep an eye on soon to be Isaias. While a lot of models don't develop Isaias into a hurricane as they did a few days ago, the NAVGEM, UKMET, and some GFS ensembles still do. And going off the GFS ensembles, the more developed and stronger solutions are the ones that are brought up the coast. The weaker solutions go into Florida and the gulf, but with not much to steer this system out to sea at the moment, the east coast should be on high alert if Isaias strengthens more than anticipated.  

thank you for the update...

Sanchize06 wrote:Still need to keep an eye on soon to be Isaias. While a lot of models don't develop Isaias into a hurricane as they did a few days ago, the NAVGEM, UKMET, and some GFS ensembles still do. And going off the GFS ensembles, the more developed and stronger solutions are the ones that are brought up the coast. The weaker solutions go into Florida and the gulf, but with not much to steer this system out to sea at the moment, the east coast should be on high alert if Isaias strengthens more than anticipated.  

Wow did not see this run of the ensembles yet, thats precarious for the entire EC including us. But this shifts daily. Levi just put out a video discussing how we will know more Thursday, this storm is fast moving and if it misses hispanola and stays more to the north it could strenthen and it would make sense to be stronger and headed more up thr EC in that senario. Would it be a record to have two tropical cyclones up here in July and early august? If we had impacts if would be early next week. CMC has a bad storm his the area or very close offshore on most runs but CMC can be taken with a grain of salt until GFS and Euro are on board. But the above sgetti are a bit concerning for a pretty strong storm potentially hurricane into the area IF that solution happened. We track! I think we should make a thread for each storm so we can refer back to them, do you guys (admin) agree? And keep general discussion on the season here?

Holy moly nav gem yikes on many past runs we are in a really bad spot if that solution happens.

18z HMON very aggressive with Isaias, 953mb heading for the Carolinas. 18z GFS also strengthens this system a bit more over the Bahamas leading to a more north track and turn. Watching the intensity and how far north it can get over the next 2-3 days should be pretty telling.

Sanchize06 wrote:18z HMON very aggressive with Isaias, 953mb heading for the Carolinas. 18z GFS also strengthens this system a bit more over the Bahamas leading to a more north track and turn. Watching the intensity and how far north it can get over the next 2-3 days should be pretty telling.

If that doesnt recurve thats go give a cat 3/4 to carolinas and a cat 2 all way up into new england, i have to imagine these insamely long heat waves we been having are warming the waters off tristate too.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:18z HMON very aggressive with Isaias, 953mb heading for the Carolinas. 18z GFS also strengthens this system a bit more over the Bahamas leading to a more north track and turn. Watching the intensity and how far north it can get over the next 2-3 days should be pretty telling.

If that doesnt recurve thats go give a cat 3/4 to carolinas and a cat 2 all way up into new england, i have to imagine these insamely long heat waves we been having are warming the waters off tristate too.

Cape May: 75*
Sandy Hook water temp: Sandy Hook 81*
Raritan Bay by my house: 84*
Montauk: 74*

Don't recall off the top of my head how many named storms were predicted for this season, but we seem to be moving down that list at record pace.Quite a ways to go too!

Uhoh hmon... Hwrf and GFS also take similar tracks, the NHC track is slowly shifting east too from where it was going into gulf.  Levi put a video out talking about the potential need for the carolinas and north needing to watch this in 4 days or so.



Eastern side is almost always the worst side to be on for the winds.

Yes these are 850s but still impressive.

Look at how tight the ensembles are and not the intensification as he heads up the coast, interesting. Def have watch this, how strong the war is im assuming will play ahuge part in if this makes landfall on EC and rides up it or skims and ots. Ray where are you, thoughts?

GreyBeard wrote:Don't recall off the top of my head how many named storms were predicted for this season, but we seem to be moving down that list at record pace.Quite a ways to go too!

Like 20 something, we have a shot at the greek alphabet, heard this was gonna be like 2005.

18z HMON

Jman, I’ve been quietly following along, mainly because I haven’t had time to really sit and ponder much further beyond my previous post regarding the topic. That said, I think the gist of those earlier thoughts looks to be in decent shape as we are now watching the classic “windshield wiper effect” swing back to the right. I really don’t know if I have it in me to sit down and do a full analysis tonight, but if I manage to muster my inner weather weenie, you can be sure I’ll post the update/discussion haha

rb924119 wrote:Jman, I’ve been quietly following along, mainly because I haven’t had time to really sit and ponder much further beyond my previous post regarding the topic. That said, I think the gist of those earlier thoughts looks to be in decent shape as we are now watching the classic “windshield wiper effect” swing back to the right. I really don’t know if I have it in me to sit down and do a full analysis tonight, but if I manage to muster my inner weather weenie, you can be sure I’ll post the update/discussion haha

Come on RB we need you..you can do it!!

Ok, fine, you talked me into it I must warn you all, though, I’m attempting this entirely from my phone.....a situation that is less than optimal. If that doesn’t show how much I love you all, then idk what will hahaha

rb924119 wrote:Ok, fine, you talked me into it

I'm a mom..if you were here I would give you a snack and tell you you will feel better when you are done..lol had this conversation this afternoon with my son and some of his summer work..bio and psych done..now on to lal and history...

Weatherwatchermom i bet you say in a Cher voice"Snap out of it"

mwilli wrote:Weatherwatchermom i bet you say in a Cher voice"Snap out of it"

been known to..lol..but I have been kinder..since my 15 year old being good with hanging with his parents more than friends since march

Ok, this is going to be quite difficult to try to explain without any images, but as I said, I’m doing this exclusively from my phone so I will try to be as descriptive as possible. Like I normally do, I will start with a hemispheric/global synopsis, but will focus on two different periods; the first will be as the system of interest is clearing the bigger Caribbean islands (~36 hours out), and the second will be once it is nearing Florida’s eastern coast (~60-72 hours out). For reference, all data analyzed and discussed is from 12z, and is largely based on a blend of the GEFS and the EPS, with some acknowledgement of the GEPS. As a preface, I generally like the overall progressions of the EPS/GEFS with regard to the eventual evolution of the hemispheric/North American pattern/storm track, though do not think they are finished adjusting back to the east of the Eastern Seaboard. The GEPS appears to have an entirely incorrect storm track, in my opinion, but it agrees well with the overall pattern and I think a blend between its representation of the Atlantic ridge and the EPS’ looks best (will explain further, since this would seemingly contradict my expectations of continued eastward corrections). I fully admit this is subjective, but thats the point, isn’t it? Let’s get to it!

Period 1, ~36 hours out, after the system clears the bigger islands:
-Neutralizing A.O. domain (treated as a non-factor)
-lack of any established 70N/70E ridging (would work to enhance westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-pseudo west-based N.A.O. blocking (would work to suppress/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-positive W.P.O. (would work to enhance westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-neutral E.P.O. (treated as a non-factor)
-positive P.N.A. (would work to suppress/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-Niño 1.2 is strongly negative (would work to suppress/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-M.J.O. will be transitioning from P3 into P4 (would work to suppress/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-falling S.O.I. spike (remember, must account for 7-10 day lag) (would work to suppress/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)
-substantially negative S.S.T. anomalies in the Gulf juxtaposed with substantially positive Atlantic anomalies (negatives: would work to enhance troughing/erode westward expansion of Atlantic ridge, positives: would work to enhance westward expansion of Atlantic ridge)

Giving each of the above factors equal weight, and accounting for the transitions occurring in the S.O.I. and M.J.O., you end up with a net result that slightly favors the enhancement of the troughing/prevention of the expansion of the Atlantic ridge with some slight transitioning toward a weakening ridge. As such, this is why I like a blend of the GEPS/EPS representation of the Atlantic ridge during this period, because I believe that the ridge will initially be fairly robust, but will then start to fade fairly substantially after this point. I am also operating under the assumption that the system itself will eventually coalesce in the northern half of the wave, and likely intensify some thanks to the higher pressure to the north, where the low-level convergence is enhanced. As the Atlantic ridge begins to fade in response to the above factors, we should see a steadily increasing southerly component to the storm-relative motion (aided some by increasing beta-drift as slow organization occurs).

Continuing along the above progression, we have all of the same hemispheric/global factors in play, with some notable changes for the second period (~60-72 hours out when the system is likely to be nearing Florida’s eastern coast):
-S.O.I. will have completed its transition away from the positive burst to neutral, which means that while the resulting atmospheric response will not support the troughing over eastern North America, it will not be providing any support to maintaining the ridge.
-M.J.O. will be fully in P4, which will help to further suppress the Atlantic ridge/enhance the eastern North American troughing
-70N/70E ridge will be building, thereby working to further enhance the eastern North American troughing/erode and suppress the Atlantic ridge

At this point, there is substantial support for the idea that the western edge of the ridge will be eroded/eroding, which will open a path for the system to really start coming north. However, operating under this assumption, this then stands to reason that it will begin to be influenced by an increasingly southwesterly vector, as the troughing over eastern North America will likely be a bit stronger/deeper/further east than what we currently see. Extrapolating this, I think we see the storm track relatively close to, but remain offshore of, the Eastern Seaboard. Regarding its intensity, I do not think we see a strong system. While some strengthening will likely occur through the first period, I believe that we will then see a steady-state intensity (likely upper-tier tropical storm, with a small chance at a minimal Cat-1) with a steady weakening thereafter. Why? With all of the troughing over eastern North America coupled with the weakening Atlantic ridging, there will be nothing but lower than average pressures throughout the region. This will essentially compete with the system itself as it will be progressing into an area where there is low-level divergence as the storm, frontal boundary associated with the troughing, and parent low of the frontal boundary all compete with each other for low-level streamflow, and in spite of enhanced divergence aloft. In short, I continue to stand by my initial thoughts from last week: That this ends up a relatively non-consequential, relatively weak system for the Eastern Seaboard with no landfall.

Hopefully that was coherent, and if anybody has any questions, please feel free to ask! I apologize for the lack of imagery, but I don’t have access to my usual setup, and as I said, I did this from my phone haha I hope you enjoyed the read, and hopefully these ideas have merit!

Thanks Ray, though this sounds like it has to be a perfect setup for your senario or for a senario like the hmon or HWRF (albeit they are kind of like the NAM of winter time where they like to change all over the place and over intensify, but you never know), any deviation back the the west would likely put it onshore as you appear to think it will come close but not make a landfall, in contrast I guess it could also go even further east. Which honestly is usually the case but we still track!!

Sanchize06 wrote:18z HMON

well dayumm....

The hurricane models seem to signify a pretty fast system with it getting to this latitude my Monday, wether offshore or a landfall who knows yet.

12z Euro is weak but makes landfall in midatlantic closer to NJ.

If I had to quantify it, Jman, I’d say it passes within ~150 miles of the coast, but doesn’t landfall. And depending on your forecast, it ALWAYS has to be a “perfect scenario” haha

rb924119 wrote:If I had to quantify it, Jman, I’d say it passes within ~150 miles of the coast, but doesn’t landfall. And depending on your forecast, it ALWAYS has to be a “perfect scenario” haha

Yeah thats like the cone of uncertainty 150 miles, it could waver in either direction, even at 150 miles offshore we would stil lsee fringe impacts and IF it were the monster the HWRF shows it could be upper level TS effects, but as I said those models tend to go crazy, MY FORECAST? No man I def do not have your skill, no forecast just what little I do know for a forecast as precise as 150 miles offshore this far out you gotta be pretty damn good.

I think by the time it gets to this latitude, it won’t be anything more than a remnant low. I think it basically fizzles by the time it gets at about the latitude of Virginia. But again, I think it stays offshore entirely. However, as you said, fringe effects are still certainly possible.....based on my forecast haha it would be easier to explain if I had all of my usual tools at my disposal haha

**APPROXIMATE TRACK** based on my thinking: