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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:49 pm

Hey all, I started the hurricane thread : ) Honestly, with everything going on all we need is a hurricane hit to create chaos I cannot even imagine. Lets see what happens. To tracking! One model the other day showed a potential weak development in the GOM, but it isn't there anymore.
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Post by Quietace on Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:05 am

While I am still internally conflicted about the importance and accuracy of seasonal forecasts given the nuance variables present for TCs, early indications show a likely above-average season in terms of ACE/# storms/ etc.

It is also the time of year were false signals appear on long-range guidance for genesis, often in similar regions. Don't be fooled Smile and use composites of NWP to determine genesis likelihood ( ie. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/modelgen/index.php ).

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Post by amugs on Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:42 am

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Img_2049

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:28 pm

@amugs wrote:Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Img_2049

Anyone want to do the research to see if active hurricane seasons follow warm winters?

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Post by amugs on Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:51 pm

From JB at WxBell. Looking at an AN season.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Atl_hu10
Later in the season is when we see our region have possibilities with trop cyclones. Mid August through Rockbtober.

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Post by Quietace on Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:19 am

@amugs wrote:From JB at WxBell. Looking at an AN season.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Atl_hu10
Later in the season is when we see our region have possibilities with trop cyclones. Mid August through Rockbtober.
I won't comment on his numbers (since we are in the same industry) but it's a logical forecast. Here is the genesis composite for the current case years with ONI <-.4 for ASO and >0 AMO. Hence the high risk areas included on the above WXbell graphic given climatological steering for storms in the MDR/GOM.
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Strong11.

What is more amazing is that every single year in the composite subset I mention featured ace exceeding the 75th-90th percentile of climatology (1970-present) except one, mostly as a result of high ACE long track MDR TCs. Excluding that one near-normal year, the Average ACE of those case years is approximately 150 ( compared to a climo of  ~100 depending which climo you use).

Even if the transition to a la nina is slower than projected as well as weaker, the years with a >0 AMO and an ONI between 0 and -0.4 once again show mean ACE that is above average. Genesis favorability is similar,  though not as significant, and would create a similarly increased elevated risk that is shown in the WxBell graphic above.

The bottom line is that estimated risk for the 2020 season is elevated in portions of the Eastern U.S. as a result of a favorable MDR which often results in long-track recurving TCs.

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Post by amugs on Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:36 pm

Boiling Water in the Gulf = early season possible trop cyclones
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EWInCOVWAAAWwRv?format=png&name=medium

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:25 pm

I hope we have lots to track, sorry I know that is evil but we need something to keep us busy. YES i am working but its easier as no travel and I do nothing else other than work, rest of the time isn't much to do.
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Apr 27, 2020 8:11 am

Waters in the gulf...look quite warm...making any storm activity potentially more intense. I found this:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/environment/ct-gulf-of-mexico-warm-waters-20170323-story.html

a popular source which says the water temp never went lower than 73 degrees off of FL this winter.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:12 pm

Wow note the COVID 19 message, this could be very problematic if we go far into the summer, no floaters nothing? How will we track!

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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Post by mwilli on Thu May 07, 2020 1:59 pm

AccuWeather updated there hurricane forecast for this summer...14-20 named storms,7-11 Hurricanes,4-6 major....La Nina pattern set for second half of summer,less wind shear,busy times ahead.......

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Post by amugs on Fri May 08, 2020 3:28 pm

Larry Cosgrove last night said:
18 storms
9-11 hcanes
4 major
Areas of landfall and concern - Gulf State and from S Fla. up to Cape Cod.

LA Nina taking hold by mid summer to help fuel this:
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EXhBxYSXYAcC_oK?format=png&name=900x900

Look at the cooling - pretty rapid
Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EXgS3yYX0AAovSh?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by amugs on Tue May 12, 2020 10:21 am

Next week hints of teh first tropical activity for his upcoming season by both the GFS and Euro.

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EX0o0x2X0AEronq?format=jpg&name=medium

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EX0o1DpWkAMn7Ie?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Tue May 12, 2020 10:32 am

Accuweather from last week and their hcane predictions:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweather-issues-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-update/735844?utm_campaign=breakingweather&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1589226759

2020 ATLANTIC STORMS with my remarks enjoy!!

1. Add to the remarks if you 'd wish.
2. Which one will be the most powerful to make landfall on the USA mainland?
3. Which one will affect us in the NJ, NY, Connecticut region?



Arthur - the Aardvark
Bertha - Big
Cristobal -??
Dolly - HELLO
Edouard - come esta?
Fay - Vincent??
Gonzalo - is malo
Hanna - Bannana
Isaias - missing the h
Josephine - is green
Kyle - is on trial
Laura - generic
Marco - Polo
Nana - Grandma or Great Grandman wth??
Omar - the great
Paulette - is in debt
Rene - bay, may, say
Sally - Field?
Teddy - Bear
Vicky - is sticky
Wilfred - Brimley

2. Hanna
3. Marco

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Post by amugs on Tue May 12, 2020 10:35 am

Just saw this on tweeter from NHC - Mugstradamus LOL!!

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- EX0rtGoU0AAGhJ_?format=png&name=900x900



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Post by rb924119 on Tue May 12, 2020 3:37 pm

I saw that earlier, mugsy, and I couldn’t be happier......better late than never haha well within the five-day forecast period, and the first update is for moderate chance of development. Not sure what their previous thinking was to at least have it highlighted as a low probability the last two days.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed May 13, 2020 12:09 am

Hey guys finally something to track, i guess im behind a bit lol, early start this year. Athur might be one to watch our for here (my middle name) or Laura thats my sister. But really who knows lol Heres to tracking storms NOT US!! Sorry had to throw that in.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed May 13, 2020 12:21 am

high chance now in 5 day

1. 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Post by Quietace on Wed May 13, 2020 7:58 am

@rb924119 wrote:I saw that earlier, mugsy, and I couldn’t be happier......better late than never haha well within the five-day forecast period, and the first update is for moderate chance of development. Not sure what their previous thinking was to at least have it highlighted as a low probability the last two days.
Because within the previous 5-day forecast windows (M-F or T-Sat) the formation probabilities were little to none within that period. If they worked 7-day windows (which they will soon), it more than likely would have featured elevated probabilities given ensemble guidance.

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Post by rb924119 on Wed May 13, 2020 9:07 am

Hey Ryan! I know they were (statistically) low according to the European products, but pretty much all of the other guidance has been on this for a long time. Add in the pattern recognition, and they could have at least marked it as a “slight” chance at days five and four, then bumped it up. Just my opinion, but going from absolutely no word about it to a high chance of development within two forecast cycles makes them look like they were asleep at the wheel with this one, especially when 80% of numerical guidance was supporting this at Day 5.

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Post by Quietace on Wed May 13, 2020 1:46 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Hey Ryan! I know they were (statistically) low according to the European products, but pretty much all of the other guidance has been on this for a long time. Add in the pattern recognition, and they could have  at least marked it as a “slight” chance at days five and four, then bumped it up. Just my opinion, but going from absolutely no word about it to a high chance of development within two forecast cycles makes them look like they were asleep at the wheel with this one, especially when 80% of numerical guidance was supporting this at Day 5.
You missed my point. The two forecast cycles make a large difference given the ending "period" of the 5-day bounded forecast period in which the probabilities are derived from. We had large certainty this was not going to form Fri or early Sat.

Anyway, it's not that big of a deal to go back and forth over. Rest assured by personal communication they were not asleep at the wheel on this threat Very Happy

Rather let's focus on the threat itself now and the possible gulf threat early next week.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri May 15, 2020 6:51 am

Levi is back regarding the system moving NE off the SE coast. As usual phenomenal unbiased Analysis posted last night. Enjoy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Post by mwilli on Fri May 15, 2020 11:14 am

Thanks for posting very informative on the subtropical system

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Post by amugs on Fri May 15, 2020 2:38 pm

Wagons WEST says the GFS

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh78_trend.thumb.gif.d18c7e3b32968ecd77a0cbdc8293bd63

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat May 16, 2020 6:57 pm

mugs I can never see your images, is anyone else having this issue? It appears the tropical system wants to head directly into our area on GFS but putters out right b4 landfall as a weak TS or subtropical storm. What does Euro show? On GFS the 18z shows al lthe heaviest rain offshore, but very close. Will be a interesting next several days of tracking. I guess everyone is out enjoying the weather. Hope you are all staying safe out there.
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