Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

I think by the time it gets to this latitude, it won’t be anything more than a remnant low. I think it basically fizzles by the time it gets at about the latitude of Virginia. But again, I think it stays offshore entirely. However, as you said, fringe effects are still certainly possible.....based on my forecast haha it would be easier to explain if I had all of my usual tools at my disposal haha

**APPROXIMATE TRACK** based on my thinking:

Officially Tropical Storm Isaias, cone shifts east again. 0z NAM completely different than 18z, more developed and turns north, east of Florida. Models starting to come into a little bit of a consensus.

18z EPS

Sanchize06 wrote:18z EPS

Thats a aweful lot of ensemble runs that hit us, good luck with your forecast ray!! LOL jest messing with ya. What a fast mover though if we see impacts looks to be like monday, not far away.

Sanchize06 wrote:Officially Tropical Storm Isaias, cone shifts east again. 0z NAM completely different than 18z, more developed and turns north, east of Florida. Models starting to come into a little bit of a consensus.

 

I do not buy this doesnt become a hurricane, didn't we see this same senario last year with Dorian surprising everyone? Too much perfect waters. I do understand there are other players like shear etc but its not going into a incredibly hostile environment east of FL.

Welcome to Earth, Isaias! The 00z GFS (albeit 100+ hours out) says we better pay close attention to it, especially if it can weather a mountainous interaction with Hispaniola and the ridge over the Atlantic continues to build.

SoulSingMG wrote:Welcome to Earth, Isaias! The 00z GFS (albeit 100+ hours out) says we better pay close attention to it, especially if it can weather a mountainous interaction with Hispaniola and the ridge over the Atlantic continues to build.

Hey bud havent seen you in a while, looks like we got some fun tracking to do over the next 4-5 days, fast mover isnt going to be weeks long tracking, I like that lol

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Officially Tropical Storm Isaias, cone shifts east again. 0z NAM completely different than 18z, more developed and turns north, east of Florida. Models starting to come into a little bit of a consensus.

 

I do not buy this doesnt become a hurricane, didn't we see this same senario last year with Dorian surprising everyone?  Too much perfect waters. I do understand there are other players like shear etc but its not going into a incredibly hostile environment east of FL.

I would agree, if it remains offshore of Florida, it's best chance at strengthening is off the coast from Florida to North Carolina. GFS has a cat 2 and it's a near miss here, close to a cape cod landfall

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Welcome to Earth, Isaias! The 00z GFS (albeit 100+ hours out) says we better pay close attention to it, especially if it can weather a mountainous interaction with Hispaniola and the ridge over the Atlantic continues to build.

Hey bud havent seen you in a while, looks like we got some fun tracking to do over the next 4-5 days, fast mover isnt going to be weeks long tracking, I like that lol

What’s up, Jman! Good to see you around. Yeah, I was just thinking the same; it’s not like this potential is 7 days out. We could be talking about tropical storm force winds reaching the mid-Atlantic as early as Sunday night (IF Isaias’s path warrants it).

Wow first off this is the infamous "I" storm second it's the earliest 2nd is Irene and look what path she took and look at this path. It's nearly identical . call me a wild guess but thinking we go get a strong ts maybe hurricane up here early next week. Rays forecast could easily happen too. A wide swine I don't think is in the cards.

Great write up Ray!!

Lots of links and info here.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145222.shtml?key_messages#contents

Look at iremes track pretty much identical so far and hurricane models are very similar, will Isaias repeat? The devastation of rain in new england was aweful from irene. We had some damage and a ton rain.

They have him pegged at 70mph aff FL and all the way up to the carolinas, not sure what would prevent him from become a hurricane looks like that area is pretty primo right now.

Latest NHC discussion.

3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend
in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern
mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with
Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm
or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today.

Wow just read that Isaias windfield is 310 miles wide!! Even if she stays offshore 150 miles like rays forecast we would still get TS impacts well into the area. Thats a huge windfield.

Anyone see the 12z Euro, not good, landfall on carolinas then again i think on longisland tropical tidbits has to big of a jump from 120-144 but at 144 he is in central Mass.

Just poking around stumbled on another cool website. Play around with the different band selection on left side of page.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Jeeze HMON, a near miss as a cat 2+.

I always enjoy (obviously I use “enjoy” within the proper context, and understand the implications) watching model battles, and this is no different. The global suites are clearly well on the western periphery of the hurricane model suite, and for once I actually agree with the NHC entirely in following the hurricane model guidance. But it’s going to be interesting to see which group wins, as I know I’ve seen global models outperform the hurricane models quite frequently with both track and intensity forecasts of tropical entities. With a rapidly decreasing lead time, this could lead to some pretty dangerous situations with little time for preparation, if the global again prove correct.

rb924119 wrote:
I always enjoy (obviously I use “enjoy” within the proper context, and understand the implications) watching model battles, and this is no different. The global suites are clearly well on the western periphery of the hurricane model suite, and for once I actually agree with the NHC entirely in following the hurricane model guidance. But it’s going to be interesting to see which group wins, as I know I’ve seen global models outperform the hurricane models quite frequently with both track and intensity forecasts of tropical entities. With a rapidly decreasing lead time, this could lead to some pretty dangerous situations with little time for preparation, if the global again prove correct.

are you implying it's possible we see some more direct impacts closer than 150 miles offshore? Or are you talking Carolinas? I agree hurricane models usually lose out. I hate to ask a possibly long winded question but in layman's terms why do you agree with the hurricane models? And now come to think of it the 12z did go more east more in line with your initial thinking but also plenty of time for changes and I'm sure there will be. Also do we see that 310 mile Winfield shrink as he comes up the coast as models seem to show? Otherwise it wouldn't be hard to get ts impacts.

aimpacts.also on a chat I use that's located in Florida it appears a landfall on Florida is less likely than a landfall in Carolinas or mid atlantic to Cape Cod. I may just have to take a trip to Cape if the hurricane models keep hitting Cape.

5pm update now progged to become a minimal hurricane (I still believe he will be stronger) and cone shifted a bit to the west bringing the 5-10% chance of TS winds into the coastal areas up here. Inside the benchmark, exactly what we would want for a good snowstorm, if he is big still could see impacts, any shifts west would bring greater impacts, still a few days away but arrival of winds map is saying late monday which is 4 days.





Almost off DR, did not effect him one bit in terms of intensity, likely because he cut the way northern part away from the biggest mountains.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 19.5N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
12H  31/0600Z 20.8N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H  31/1800Z 22.7N  75.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 24.5N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 26.1N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  02/0600Z 27.7N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 29.2N  79.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 33.3N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

Ummm hi-res nam are you on something? Cat 3/4?

He hopefully stays off the coast but the EC needs to pay close attention. There is anamolously warm waters pff the coast up to NE, low shear and limited dry air intrusion. He has a cieling for strengthening but even a high end (Floyd) trop storm would be dangerous for the Middle Atlantic and NE.

amugs wrote:He hopefully stays off the coast but the EC needs to pay close attention. There is anamolously warm waters pff the coast up to NE, low shear and limited dry air intrusion. He has a cieling for strengthening but even a high end (Floyd) trop storm would be dangerous for the Middle Atlantic and NE.

Floyd and Irene this storm reminds me of, both gave us a whippin.

ENS say EC runner