Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State just UPPED yes upped their tropical cyclone forecast to..........vente y Quatro = 24!!!

amugs wrote:Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State just UPPED yes upped their tropical cyclone forecast to..........vente y Quatro = 24!!!

I am willing to bet they run through all the names - Things will get active in a couple of weeks...................

Greek Alpha and Beta letters will be used maybe up to Gamma LOL!!

amugs wrote:Greek Alpha and Beta letters will be used maybe up to Gamma LOL!!

That would be wild................

And its going to get BUSY.....

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin

I just read up to 25 storms!! I think 11 hurricanes and up to 6 major!! It's go be one heck of a Sept oct. We have had what 2 3 hurricanes? Calling for huge 200+ ACE. I fear the east coast and even us will face many more threats and maybe another landfall. Question does conditions going into the fall support situations like with Isiais? Or was the jet and trough a big anomaly, or just perfect timing? I'm presuming Sandy situation was much more uncommon. Nothing on models right now. My parents big maple cracked near the room would total half the house so it's going to be assessed and if it has to come down it needs to before next strong winds . tree guys said next hurricane it would likely drop but they have to up and actually inspect the crack. This is a hundreds years old maple.

2005 watch out!!!

sorry to hear that Jman about ur parents.
The Nina is going to aid this sin e there will be very low trade winds and shear over the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.
We are going to hit a stretch that is going to make us weary by the end of tnis season.
Also, we have big boy planets of Saturn, Jupiter and Uranus aligning.

amugs wrote:sorry to hear that Jman about ur parents.
The Nina is going to aid this sin e there will be very low trade winds and shear over the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.
We are going to hit a stretch that is going to make us weary by the end of tnis season.
Also, we have big boy planets of Saturn, Jupiter and Uranus aligning.

Are you a astrology fanatic? My friend is too he told me august would be a very good month, and probably September a bad month.  Turns out the tree is okay, just some branches broke off very high up so was hard to see but they will not have to take it down. They did however lose a very large part of their tulip tree and it crushed yet again more of the woods keeping a peeping barrier between homes, every storm they lose more and more trees.  The roads were impassable had turn around a few times large wires down, they can't even get ahold of Eversource.  They are in VT till mid week at their summer home, by then hopefully it will be restored.  Yeah I think the EC may get quite a few hits or near misses with the setup this year, not good. 2005 could potentially go down as second if those numbers pan out.  There are still many tree branches some large hanging precariously over lines and sidewalks, i wonder how long b4 those are noticed or removed as they will likely cause more outages as they weaken from any rain or strong thunderstorms we get. Eventually there won't be any trees left to fall...good thing and bad i guess.

Did you guys see this? Happened a few miles from me. Girl caught a large scaffolding crashing into her parking lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRMRnrQubok

Aaaannnndd Here we go, models do not seem to think much of it but the same was for Isiais. NHC conditions become less favorable down the line, right now 50% in 5 day, big jump from 20% this morning, I think storms this year are go defy all rason we know about the tropics, it is 2020 afterall.

train for pacific GFS has like 5 storms in a row, while everything dies in atlantic, i thought tropics favored the atlantic this year not pacific.

To all the tropical lovers we have a quietnperiod till about the 15th of tjis.month when a Kelvin Wave will.move from the Eastern Pacific into the Atlantic. MJO will be in the Indian Ocean and West Coast of Africa in a very favorable phase and stay until midish September which means with Above Normal Sea Surface Temperatures, low shear(Tradewinds), Low Sahran Dust, a Western Atlaintic Ridge aka Bermuda High aka Hadley Cell Aka Azores High take your pick LOL, will produce a VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF Trop Cyclones.
Blue purple shows the MJO wave

Yes, active.

https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF

The fuel for the fire. From JB



Ben Noll saying that this hcane season looks to extend to November if not later he is saying.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1294032812626939904?s=20

dkodgis wrote:Yes, active.

https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF

Damien - where doe sit show its active - I checked out this twitter page and can't find it says its active?

If there is a specific tweet about this please repost it.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

Mugs this is part of Ben Noll's post on his site:
"The @CopernicusECMWF data is fresh off the press and I've completed my initial analysis!

Velocity potential patterns continue to suggest a drawn-out Atlantic hurricane season, with risks right on into November."

and he provided the link I gave you. Look at this:

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2020

where half way down the web page there is discussion about air temps over oceans

Sorry, but this season should not be anywhere near the number of named (tropical) storms that we are so far. The subjectivity and inconsistency with which storms are being named/classified in recent years is very disheartening, and is really putting confirmation bias on full display so far this year, IMO. Kyle is one of several examples.

rb924119 wrote:
Sorry, but this season should not be anywhere near the number of named (tropical) storms that we are so far. The subjectivity and inconsistency with which storms are being named/classified in recent years is very disheartening, and is really putting confirmation bias on full display so far this year, IMO. Kyle is one of several examples.

I agree this has been the norm thenlast few years. Some of these storms are not a tropical cyclone. It's like they have to build this up. Meteorology in my personal opinion has been compromised.
I see an active pattern coming into Playas so many do but I do agree we should have about/probably five truly names Tropical cyclone at this stage. Anyway well be tracking a lot these next 7-9 weeks.

rb924119 wrote:
Sorry, but this season should not be anywhere near the number of named (tropical) storms that we are so far. The subjectivity and inconsistency with which storms are being named/classified in recent years is very disheartening, and is really putting confirmation bias on full display so far this year, IMO. Kyle is one of several examples.

100%

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:
Sorry, but this season should not be anywhere near the number of named (tropical) storms that we are so far. The subjectivity and inconsistency with which storms are being named/classified in recent years is very disheartening, and is really putting confirmation bias on full display so far this year, IMO. Kyle is one of several examples.

100%

You all know this happened after Sandy and rightly so, if the storm poses the same intensity as a tropical system it will be classified as such. They can't pick and choose because what if such as kyle suddenly did a loop and hit the coast as a hurricane.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:
Sorry, but this season should not be anywhere near the number of named (tropical) storms that we are so far. The subjectivity and inconsistency with which storms are being named/classified in recent years is very disheartening, and is really putting confirmation bias on full display so far this year, IMO. Kyle is one of several examples.

100%

You all know this happened after Sandy and rightly so, if the storm poses the same intensity as a tropical system it will be classified as such. They can't pick and choose because what if such as kyle suddenly did a loop and hit the coast as a hurricane.

That’s definitely not correct, Jman lol by that logic they should name Nor’easters and every other oceanic storm, and they don’t haha it’s not about picking and choosing. We have set criteria for what makes a storm tropical, sub-tropical, or non-tropical. My point is that in recent years they have blurred the lines in order to suit what they’ve previously said/predicted. In this case, they outlined Kyle as likely to develop into a tropical cyclone, coupled with the fact that they predicted an active year for tropical cyclones. End of story. Now, I’m totally fine with them outlining potential developments, and they got this one right. All they had to do was admit that it was AT MOST sub-tropical, because let’s face it, it wasn’t even close to being fully tropical based on the synoptics of how it developed and its characteristics (clearly defined frontal structure, involvement of mid-level vorticity advection and jet dynamics), and I’d have no issue. But saying that it was fully tropical so it can be added to the seasonal tally is ridiculous.


Similarly, today’s coastal storm is developing in a nearly identical way to Kyle......why isn’t it named? What’s the only difference? They never outlined it for potential development......

By the same token, them declassifying Sandy as sub-tropical was BS too, because that was still clearly truly warm-core upon landfall. What was the reason? They predicted it to be sub-tropical/post-tropical before landfalling.

rb924119 wrote:By the same token, them declassifying Sandy as sub-tropical was BS too, because that was still clearly truly warm-core upon landfall. What was the reason? They predicted it to be sub-tropical/post-tropical before landfalling.

So true my man. They also wanted to save face IMO.
The scientific elites are undermining this as well by pushing an agenda again IMO but with MANy others as well.
Sad.

Watch out below!!

amugs wrote:Watch out below!!

Just musing here, but I feel like these are pretty far south for this time of year, no? Being as far south as they are, especially the lead wave and if it ends up on the southern periphery, makes them susceptible to dry air entrainment as they pass north of South America if they get too big. The smaller their circulation, the better for them to intensify (which is normally counterintuitive). I believe it was Gordon a few years ago that would be a prime example of this - managed Cat-3 with a circulation no bigger than like 100 miles. Every time it tried to grow, it ingested too much South American downsloped air, convectively pulsed, and started to sputter until it could reconsolidate its convection again.

Well rb I thought that they had decided after only issuing high wind warnings instead of hurricane warnings with Sandy they changed the issuance criteria to if the same impacts were to be felt then they would issue hurricane warnings to make people notice and prepare more. I know this is true, we all discussed it at one point. Maybe my point wasn't written correctly, but reread your comment and now i understand, and I never know Sandy was not a hybrid and was indeed tropical.

Oh boy 12z Euro!!! We may be watching something on the EC next week. GFS says gulf not strong. Who knows at this point but 98L has a high probability of development, I usually side with Euro on tropics but GFS did really well with Isiais.