February 1st-2nd Godzilla, Part III: 1st Call Snow Map

Frank_Wx wrote:

rb924119 wrote:“They said to stand down or they’ll quit”. Literally lmao right now. Too freakin’ funny. That’s great, oh man, that’s hilarious ahaha

@Frank_Wx you’re really twisting my arm here, buddy, but I already said I won’t be releasing because I don’t have the time :’(

All good! I obviously try to encourage as many different viewpoints as possible

I know you do!! And I’m itching to do one, believe me, but if I was going to sit down and actually do a map that I’d able to say that I did my best with, I’d literally have to pull an all-nighter, especially since I’m still working for the next hour lol ideally, I would have liked to have put a first guess out with my video discussion to help demonstrate my thinking a bit more concretely, but I just didn’t have the time.

jmanley32 wrote:FYI Frank the click to see my first call shows the other snow map not yours.

Thank you. Fixed

Snownyc wrote:I frank do you think this storm can do more than what it say leaning toward 2ft amounts or more. Do you think this storm has that potential in the nyc area because they always say you have to smell the rain to get the good snows in these storms

Yes. In fact, Para GFS, GFS and NAM show over 20 inches for several counties. If it happens it will be the areas within my golden zone. This has the makings of a Roidzilla, but I’m going to wait until tomorrow and see what happens with the models

Interesting....

https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1355684265267236866?s=21

Frank_Wx wrote:Madonna mia

Hate this part of it. Love snow but hate losing power. This has power outages written all over it. Takes a lot of the fun out of it when you can’t keep up with it in the middle of the storm. Hopefully those winds won’t translate to the surface nearly as much as depicted.

Won’t hide this, but if I do need to make a second map it would probably be to cut totals down along the coast. If this actually is trending stronger and/or more north, you obviously would see more rain than currently expected along the coast. And there are some individual ensemble members that show snow switching to rain for NYC. This is a super important 00z suite tonight

Frank_Wx wrote:

mmanisca wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

frank 638 wrote:Frank what do you think half of the area will go to blizzard warnings

If Upton pulls the trigger it will be tomorrow morning or early afternoon

Grselig wrote:The big question, when will you declare this a Zilla and make it official?

@amugs @sroc and @dunnzoo said to stand down or they’ll quit

mmanisca wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:EURO closely resembles my first forecast, but believes I should expand the yellow more S-SE. We'll see! Temps scare me a bit there. But holy capocollo! What a run

Man those 850s Late Monday night into Tuesday over Long Island are not good at all....

850mb temps?

heehaw453 wrote:Nice!  Go big or go home!  

Now we need one from you, Scott and Ray. Thanks in advance!

Rooster89 wrote:What does that guys tweet mean?

We’re all going to get *******

Yes 850 mb temps going to +2.

Check out the time stamp though. 7am Tuesday



By then damage is done. As larry just said, living near the ocean for a snow lover comes with trade offs. You will see some of the heaviest snow rates and accumulation, even with a changeover or dry slot! Also, 00z suites tonight may show something else. Big model runs tonight.

Things I’m looking for are in the NAM and short res models. Hopefully they catch on

I actually see the temps going to +1 and +2 at around 10 pm Monday night thru most of Suffolk county

Frank_Wx wrote:Interesting....

https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1355684265267236866?s=21

This sounds oddly familiar.......

Never count rb's thinking out until it is out.

I think the SREFs came north......

Frank_Wx wrote:Won’t hide this, but if I do need to make a second map it would probably be to cut totals down along the coast. If this actually is trending stronger and/or more north, you obviously would see more rain than currently expected along the coast. And there are some individual ensemble members that show snow switching to rain for NYC. This is a super important 00z suite tonight

how far inland from the coast do you think would be the max? Would the band around NYC be in jeopardy?

North like in across the street north or north as in 100 miles north?

Not at all surprised. Was actually thinking that none of the models really support more than a sub-mothra slopfest for the coast.

Frank and Bill et al, what NJ County (or 2-3 counties to let you hedge your bet! lol) do you think has CCB thumpage all day Monday? That’s where we’re heading!!

North and east it looks like to me. Hard to tell, still waiting on maps.

CP, I learned my lesson years ago. I have not one but two generators (one is a backup) and either can connect to the house electric through a distribution box and a cable. I have a plan c too. I have a small sine inverter that can run the woodstove fan plus an led light or two...I can connect it to the car's lighter port and do an extension cord out of the window and into a house window with towels on top and bottom of the cord and window sill. It's not pretty but it works if all else fails. Sure the car has to run the night in park but I could not stand being denounced by my family as not having the situation in hand. Some years ago, an ice storm knocked us out for almost a week. I learned quick moving up here. Carhartts, four wheel drive, a wood stove, beer, a freezer of food, a snow blower, and an iPhone hotspot.

Coastal coming in stronger this run...

SENJsnowman wrote:Not at all surprised. Was actually thinking that none of the models really support more than a sub-mothra slopfest for the coast.

Frank and Bill et al, what NJ County (or 2-3 counties to let you hedge your bet! lol) do you think has CCB thumpage all day Monday? That’s where we’re heading!!

My ranking (not necessarily for top upside potential, but for SAFEST heavy snow potential) would be:
1. Morris County
2. Somerset County (try north of I-78)
3. flip a coin between Warren, Hunterdon and Passaic.

Anywhere south and east of there you run the risk that if the "rb trend" occurs you could see mixing. Anywhere north and west of there you run the risk that you hit a sharp cutoff on the backside after the coastal transfer.

So per the SREFs, they flip I-95 and points southeast of there to mix/rain from about 7-9am Tuesday through about 3-5am Wednesday, during which time, you lose about .5” of liquid equivalency.

Obviously if you’re in coastal southeastern NJ where I am you get totally screwed, but what else is new? lol

Looks like the NAM is following, and is taking the max snow now northeast of NYC proper.

The 0z NAM, which is not a big change from the 18z NAM is kind of why my snow map looks the way it does. It likes the warm air intrusion across south and coastal NJ, and doesn't like the heavy snow getting back too far west. Could be out to lunch, but that 18z run spooked me on going stronger with big totals outside the jackpot and NW, and this does as well.

the snow map for the NYC metro is going to be wild

00z NAM

aiannone wrote:the snow map for the NYC metro is going to be wild

@sroc does well haha

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:the snow map for the NYC metro is going to be wild

@sroc does well haha

But as always, I still beat him

Lord