Re: February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

by **Taffy** Mon Feb 01, 2021 12:57 am

Still waiting for the snow to start. "They" say 16" with some rates 2" an hour. We shall see. Meanwhile, I move to the Snow Capitol and you guys have been getting the good stuff.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:28 am

rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I have some ponderances based on my observations of current radar trends and broad recollection of the general evolution of the modeling. The first image is a current radar image with the overlays of where I think current banding is indicating the eventual development of quasi-stationary, pivoting banding features (in red). The northern one should become established BEFORE the southern one, as it will be forced by the general large-scale deformation/frontogenesis. The southern one will be associated with the maturing low- and mid-level cyclones tomorrow.

The second image depicts how I think these same bands will orient themselves before becoming quasi-stationary as the the storm matured and then occludes, before they begin to then expand away as the system decays.

The area in red between the two bands denotes where there will likely be a period of subsidence as the first band begins to rotate a little further north before the secondary band becomes established to recover. That region would then shift a bit further west-northwest during the maturation and occlusion processes. So, these two areas are where I think we may see the best totals, BUT THIS IS SOLELY MY OPINION BASED ON WHAT IM SEEING IN THE RADAR TRENDS WITH SOME PREVIOUS THOUGHTS MIXED IN. I’m testing a hypothesis here that you can pick out areas of *preferred* banding tendencies based on certain radar/early precipitation trends. Will be fun to watch evolve at the very least.

Bump. I want to keep this current to see how it compares to reality. So far, so good.

njwx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 14 A1bf9910

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:37 am

HRRR continues bringing the best snows north and west of NYC and I-95 by bringing extended mixing in. We shall see, as it’s alone in this.

by Mike1984 Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:51 am

What are your guys thoughts about the split low scenario that’s is showing at 500mb on the rgem and also on the euro? The euro happens a little later than the rgem.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:15 am

Close to 5" so far in the Bronx mod snow now

by **GreyBeard** Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:19 am

Just woke up,looked outside expecting a winter wonderland, and like the old commercial said "where's the beef"? I've got maybe,maybe 2" otg,radar looks sketchy with a huge dryslot over the western 2/3rds. of Jersey.What's going on?See last post was over 2 hrs. ago, so much for tracking lol.

by **GreyBeard** Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:24 am

Hey algae,missed your post.Looks like you are doing a little better than me.Just checked my forecast with nws and they are still calling for 9-13 inches today, and 1-2 tonight.What do you think?

Maintaining radio silence? Alrighty then. Back to bed for me.

by **algae888** Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:55 am

Absolutely ripping. Nice bands coming thru. Radar exploding over so nj

by Snownyc Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:57 am

Brooklyn11210 has about 4 1/2 looks beautiful snow ain’t as heavy right now

by Snownyc Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:22 am

I hope everyone is just sleep but a quite board ain’t good

by **brownie** Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:24 am

5.5 inches here at 5:15 am. Looks gorgeous out there!

by Sparky Sparticles Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:45 am

Snownyc wrote:I hope everyone is just sleep but a quite board ain’t good

I woke up at 4am when the plow made its hourly pass and gave up trying to get back to sleep. My son couldn't go into work last night because NJ Transit announced no light rail trains today, so he would be able to get in but not get home at the end of shift this morning. He said the snow was pretty light throughout the night and stopped completely around 2:30am with around 2-3 inches outside. So why has the plow been coming every hour since around 10pm last night, scraping on bare asphalt, waking everyone up?? Oh, that's right - OT hours!

It's now 5:40am and I had to strain to see a few flakes are starting to fall again. The day as just begun!

by **Scullybutcher** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:24 am

Anyone else on Long Island starting to worry about the warm air.

Currently 30* and snowing 3.5” on the ground

by Snownyc Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:28 am

It basically stop snowing in nyc

by **bloc1357** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:40 am

It is coming down heavy, southwest suffolk county Long Island. That little yellow spot on the radar is moving into long island now

by **dsix85** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:44 am

Is the overrunning event winding up before the big event commences? Radar is not impressive at all.

by **mmanisca** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:45 am

5.5 inches in Deer Park..31 degrees

by CDF24 Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:47 am

After a quiet night, just started heavy sleet in Hamilton, NJ. Wind is up significantly

by **dsix85** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:49 am

I take that back, my app had a glitch on the radar. Looks to be filling in over the Atlantic.

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:51 am

It’s about to go nuclear over LI.

njwx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 14 8b997110

by **dsix85** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:55 am

Coming down harder in Manorville

by **bloc1357** Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:56 am

sroc4 wrote:It’s about to go nuclear over LI.

Yes, i'm on the south shore and it is picking up consistently...heavy bands filling in over the atlantic look to just continually push across the island...Love it!!

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:04 am

The coastal storm is a little further east than modeled IMO. This is the 850 mb low. I would expect a little less dry slot concern as well as mixing.

njwx - February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast - Page 14 85011

by **lglickman1** Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:06 am

heehaw453 wrote:The coastal storm is a little further east than modeled IMO. This is the 850 mb low. I would expect a little less dry slot concern as well as mixing.

Any significant change to overall snow accumulation forecast based in this?

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:10 am

lglickman1 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The coastal storm is a little further east than modeled IMO. This is the 850 mb low. I would expect a little less dry slot concern as well as mixing.

Any significant change to overall snow accumulation forecast based in this?

Not that I can see when all is said and done. Radar looks to be filling in.

by snowlover78 Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:15 am

Wow. Snowing like crazy in the Extreme NW corner of Ocean county. Already since yesterday 7-8 inches on the ground. The wind is picking up. Long day ahead.

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:16 am

The 06Z 3K NAM right now seems to be close to reality. If that is true then things are going to crank up in a few hours especially for LI.

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