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February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:09 pm

We finally reached the grand finale. I couldn't help myself in upgrading this historic storm to a Roidzilla. I am not going to go into specifics and details since I already did that in the Part III thread. But it is important to repeat the following:

1. -NAO, or high latitude blocking, is extending the duration of this event from our typical 18-24 hours to almost 48 hours. Snow has already begun falling in places. Although the main part of the storm will end tomorrow night, there will be bands of snow still sitting over portions of this area all the way into Tuesday afternoon. Additional upper air vorticity phases into the mean trough late tomorrow night which expands the precipitation field of the system, and allows banding to reemerge on Tuesday. That will also be high-ratio snow and could tack on anywhere from 2 to as much as 5 additional inches in spots.

2. I can't get over the track of our mid-level low's (500mb, 700mb, 850mb). They track due south and then east of our area and that is as good as you will ever see. This either eliminates or significantly reduces a changeover to rain or dry slotting. While that remains a possibility since nothing is set in stone, I do believe the EURO and other models that track these lows off our coast instead of inland. Lower 500mb heights and a 250mb jet streak due east of Maine calls for a track of the SLP more east than where the RGEM (for example) has it. Therefore, my forecast heavily leans toward that idea.

3. The dynamics at play are overwhelming to talk about without getting so giddy. A LLJ, low level jet, at 850mb is streamlining 100+ kt winds into the core of the storm. At the surface, this has potential to reach tropical storm force winds. I did create a wind map to give you an idea of where the strongest surface winds will be, and where blizzard conditions are likely. This LLJ will aid in fueling the eventual CCB that develops.

4. This could turn out to be a once every 5 year, or even decade, type of storm. It has been a blast tracking this one with all of you. As I type this and look out of my window, I can see my first flakes have began to fall. And that right there is perfect timing. Good luck everyone and please stay safe!!!!!!

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast Roidzilla

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast FEB-1-2021-Final-Call

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast Blizzard-area


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Post by CDF24 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:14 pm

Thank you Frank, I hope this verifies. I was getting nervous with the models swinging back and forth. That little point in NJ (by Trenton) seems to always be the rain snow line and we get nothing. This looks like we get to have fun too.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:16 pm

I couldn't be happier with this. Did u put yonkers in just for me lol. Not snowing here yet but I imagine next few hrs.
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Post by billg315 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:16 pm

Excellent map Frank. Let us hope this pans out and almost everyone gets a good historic snowstorm out of this.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:20 pm

A milestone worth celebrating.

The forum just hit 1,000 registered members. I know some folks have not posted in a long time, but this is a number worth celebrating considering we started out with like 20 of us back over at the Channel 7 Bill Evans board.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:21 pm

Thanks frank beautiful map I am happy for being in the boarder line of 20 to 25 inches of snow .stupid question will I have to worry about mixing in the Bronx and Yonkers

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Post by larryrock72 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:21 pm

I think Barnegat, NJ (ocean county) just reached my 2 year snowfall total in just a couple hours. Winning! February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast Img_2014

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:22 pm

Congrats Frank!! Do you advertise or is this purely word of mouth? And I have def promoted you ; )
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Post by Rooster89 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:23 pm

Yeah I’ll take that firmly planted in the 20-25+ zone. My almost 5 year old and my 3 year old have not seen a real snow yet and this is looking like it.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:23 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Thanks frank beautiful map I am happy for being in the boarder line of 20 to 25 inches of snow .stupid question will I have to worry about mixing in the Bronx and Yonkers
we be crushed in yellow or red. Win win.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:25 pm

TWC app, as always meAningless but still fun to track just for shots and giggles just updated to 20-31 inches for my town, highland mills 45 miles due north of midtown. Yesterday morning I was at 2-6 inches.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:25 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Thanks frank beautiful map I am happy for being in the boarder line of 20 to 25 inches of snow .stupid question will I have to worry about mixing in the Bronx and Yonkers

No mixing

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:27 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:A milestone worth celebrating.

The forum just hit 1,000 registered members. I know some folks have not posted in a long time, but this is a number worth celebrating considering we started out with like 20 of us back over at the Channel 7 Bill Evans board.

It’s where we all initially Met. It was a fun board until the lunatics took over the asylum.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:28 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Thanks frank beautiful map I am happy for being in the boarder line of 20 to 25 inches of snow .stupid question will I have to worry about mixing in the Bronx and Yonkers

No mixing
thank you

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Post by colosa4 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:28 pm

Congrats on the 1000 members. I also want to thank everyone for the wonderful analysis that is always present on this board. I've been lurking since the 7 online days and always found the posts here to be very educational.

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Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Thanks frank beautiful map I am happy for being in the boarder line of 20 to 25 inches of snow .stupid question will I have to worry about mixing in the Bronx and Yonkers
we be crushed in yellow or red. Win win.
my fingers are crossed 🤞

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Post by Grselig Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:32 pm

Great site. Hope this verifies!!!! Storm of the decade!!!
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:34 pm

Thanks for your dedication, and congrats on hitting 1,000.

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:35 pm

Excellent Map...

I just read Craig Allen's write up on Face book. Made excellent points, doesn't think the RPM (TV Met Model) handles coastal storms well.

Calls for an area wide 12"-18" but where ever the banding sets up it will be 2 feet or more, he rarely goes high on predictions like that but wow!

Also said in one of his videos could see thundersnow....

We are all looking forward to the epic snow storm.........


Last edited by Joe Snow on Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:35 pm

Twisted Evil

February 1st-2nd Roidzilla, Part IV: Final Forecast 9d2d3810
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:43 pm

@Rooster89 wrote:Yeah I’ll take that firmly planted in the 20-25+ zone. My almost 5 year old and my 3 year old have not seen a real snow yet and this is looking like it.

Hey where are you, I think we are close.
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Post by GreyBeard Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:44 pm

Just for comparison, I checked my forecast on NWS website. They have me under a winter storm warning, but gave me a range of 6-16",pretty wide berth there. Also mentioned possible mixing issues. I guess they haven't seen the light yet.

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:45 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:TWC app, as always meAningless but still fun to track just for shots and giggles just updated to 20-31 inches for my town, highland mills 45 miles due north of midtown. Yesterday morning I was at 2-6 inches.

lol

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Post by heehaw453 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:46 pm

1" otg. snowing moderately.

23/20

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Post by Rooster89 Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:48 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Rooster89 wrote:Yeah I’ll take that firmly planted in the 20-25+ zone. My almost 5 year old and my 3 year old have not seen a real snow yet and this is looking like it.

Hey where are you, I think we are close.

Middletown.

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