Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Frank_Wx wrote:This is 3"/hour stuff. No joke

qnd headed right this way, bring it. This has been a good year for NYC metro and NNJ, this year totally makes up for the past 2 yrs.

Amici...

I am speechless

when is this coming north?. Nevermind the first radar app i was using wasnt working right and showed moisture cutting west to east and staying south. I just checked others and see its coming. Im feeling better now.

Epic

Frank_Wx wrote:Amici...

I am speechless

Giggity, guess that means you like what you see. Still sticking with 3-6? LOL, I think that may bust higher but we will see, i mean the entire area is go see hours of moderate to really heavy snow, then we get the Fri stuff too. This is a freaking winter, like i remember as a kid. I know years ago we had similar ones but for some reason this year feels special.

22.1/21.2 Heavy snow

I'm over 3" OTG Closing in on 4.

That 35 dbz band is forming a smile lol you guys see that

In Marlboro on the Middlesex/Monmouth border.  Snowing very hard....we're under that yellow band.  Looks like over 5 inches on the ground already!

I find this radar to be pretty accurate. If correct, we'll be done with round one around mid-day. Round two starts up in the evening

https://www.iweathernet.com/interactive-radar

Under one of those yellow bands and it is snowing to beat the . . . uh . . Band.

Reports of close to 1' of snow outside of Philly! Lol.

Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 AM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania...New Jersey...southeast New
York...and portions of southern New England.

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 181447Z - 181845Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue through early afternoon
with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour possible.

DISCUSSION...An expansive precipitation associated with broad
isentropic ascent has overspread much of the mid-Atlantic and has
started to move into New England. Moderate snowfall rates are being
observed across much of the region with heavy snowfall currently
being observed in southeast Pennsylvania. This area of heavy
snowfall is expected to pivot northeastward through the morning and
early afternoon across New Jersey and eventually Long Island. The
current transition zone between snow and sleet/freezing rain is near
the Pennsylvania/Maryland border and across far southern New Jersey.
This transition zone is expected to lift northeastward through the
morning into southeast Pennsylvania, central New Jersey, and
possibly to Long Island bringing a mix of freezing rain and sleet to
these regions. Areas to the north of this transition zone are
expected to see the heaviest snowfall rates and likely the greatest
snowfall totals where precipitation type remains all snow.

New Hope update: holding at 25*, 2.5 inches on the ground
I'd forgotten how quiet the world is during a snowstorm, took me back to my youth in Minnesota when days like this were far more common than they've been hereabouts over the last few years/decades...

Heavy Snow continues. Now I'm getting those giant flakes reminiscent of mid-morning during the Feb. 1st storm. Looks beautiful outside the window.

BARNEY ALLEETT!!
850 In the purple is round 1 - look at what is to the South - that gets up here Franks 1st call is the right call - never second guess sometimes

New Upton Disco:

The combination of an exit region of an upper jet and increased
thermal forcing will allow snow to overspread the rest of the
area from SW to NE today. Up to 2 inches of snow have already
fallen in some of the southern zones. Have increased snowfall
forecast slightly in these areas, and might need to increase
them further with the next update. 12z NAM QPF implies warning
criteria snowfall (average of 6 inches within a 12 hour period)
by late afternoon. Latest couple of HRRR runs brings QPF amounts
just shy of warning criteria for the same area with the axis of
heaviest QPF just offshore. This is shaping up to be a close
call, and complicating matters is that sleet is expected to mix
in for some southern zones by late afternoon. Have decided to
keep with an advisory for these areas at this point. At least
for the time being can message heavier snow bands with SPSs
before making any headline changes.

Just an idea of how extremely difficult it is to predict snow.  The box where Mt Holly had the greatest uncertainty w.r.t. to snowfall amounts in SE PA is going to get over 1' snow today while further north in EPA it will be less where they had the greatest confidence.  I have nothing but the utmost respect for the NWS.  Just showing how difficult this business is.

That band around NYC is just moving in blitzing here now. maybe a inch or so, havent been out yet.

jmanley32 wrote: This is a freaking winter, like i remember as a kid.

It sure is

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1015 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

CTZ009-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-181700-
Southern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1015 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

A band of moderate to briefly heavy snowfall will be shifting
through the area during the rest of this morning. Snowfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour may occur during this time. This will
maintain reduced visibility and may lead to hazardous conditions
for untreated surfaces. Extra caution should be used if traveling
this morning.

relatively moderate snow here in Edison, was heavier a bit earlier this morning

I don't think the sleet is making too far north today.  The warm tongue really got pushed back at 5000 feet ASL. This looks more CAD.

aiannone wrote:New Upton Disco:

The combination of an exit region of an upper jet and increased
thermal forcing will allow snow to overspread the rest of the
area from SW to NE today. Up to 2 inches of snow have already
fallen in some of the southern zones. Have increased snowfall
forecast slightly in these areas, and might need to increase
them further with the next update. 12z NAM QPF implies warning
criteria snowfall (average of 6 inches within a 12 hour period)
by late afternoon. Latest couple of HRRR runs brings QPF amounts
just shy of warning criteria for the same area with the axis of
heaviest QPF just offshore. This is shaping up to be a close
call, and complicating matters is that sleet is expected to mix
in for some southern zones by late afternoon. Have decided to
keep with an advisory for these areas at this point. At least
for the time being can message heavier snow bands with SPSs
before making any headline changes.

do they have a death threat to not put out a warning? LOL I mean it really does seem worthy, they keep mentioning it but won't pull trigger, Mt. Holly makes much more sense.

And NWS upton also lowered amounts for the area in the advisory, i think they go have egg on their face for that one. maybe not if the general amount is 8" or under they will be right.

Sleet line seems to be holding about steady for now:

WOW that blob moving into southern NJ, 45-50dbz in there!! is anyone under that? That will thump if it holds together.

Steel slitting. Wait, strike that, reverse it. Still sleeting. It mixes from time to time, but then always back to sleet. We might be able to build a sleet man soon!

(Sorry Snowey!! I shouldn’t do this to you, but at this point, might as well get ready to measurement!)