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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

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Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Empty Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:43 pm

The fury February onslaught continues as our area stares down yet another winter storm Thursday into Friday. Personally, this one snuck up on me because I did not believe it had a chance to be an area-wide significant snowstorm. The mid-level trough axis is west of here and the Atlantic ridge is overlapping onto the coast. However, Mother Nature said 'va fangul' and snow begets snow, so here we are.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast SLP

One key reason why the surface low will take a path that favors colder temps staying locked into our area is because of the ULL - upper level low - spinning over SE Canada. The confluence that is draped across northern New England is preventing 500mb heights from growing above our metro. As the primary low attempts to cut into Ohio, it quickly realizes it has nowhere to move and transfers its energy to a secondary low near the Mid-Atlantic. There are several 'waves' of upper energy that are expected to pass south which may mean more than one surface low developing. Because our area is wedged between an incoming trough, SE ridge, and extremely powerful upper level jet stream to the north, the gradient and dynamics associated with this storm are going to be one of the more impressive we've seen yet this winter.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast NAM-jet

The 200mb jet streak (how many times have we seen this picture on the year?) is approaching 200 KTs. In conjunction with very potent 500mb vorticity passing through, that calls for an impressive precipitation field to develop. This is one reason why I'm not buying the EURO very much. It shows a sharp cut-off of the precip for areas N&W of NYC.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast NAM-fronto

Check out this band of 700mb frontogenesis the NAM tracks from south to north across PA, NJ and NYC. This band has the potential to drop 3-4" of snow in 1 HOUR.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 850mb-low

One possible negative is the track of the 850mb low. If it gets as far west as shown here - in NW PA - then there is a very good chance the 850mb temps along the coast rise above freezing levels. This would limit the amount of snow that falls over certain parts of our area.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 850mb

Remember that sneaky warm wedge in the boundary layers during the February 1st Roidzilla that caused parts of EPA and WNJ to see sleet? You can see the NAM hints at something like that coming to fruition again. Now by this time most of the damage has already been done and we're already in a dry slow. However, be mindful that this is not the most perfect set-up and that warm wedges are possible again.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Wildcard

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 850mb-temps

What's interesting is seeing the northern stream energy trying to phase in at the last moment. This would lengthen the duration of this storm by a few hours as additional banding tries to develop on the west side as the low pulls away. But as you can see, the immediate coast at this point is too warm for snow. However, areas N&W would end up seeing 'bonus' snow IF this comes to fruition. The overall idea here is that the storm could continue well into Friday (say 3-5pm) IF this phasing and back-building of precipitation forms.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Feb-18th-1st

My first forecast takes all of these factors into account. One thing I'll have to keep an eye on is the immediate coast. I'm thinking >8" is possible since the 700mb frontogenesis band tracks directly over that area. This includes NYC Metro. However, the negatives are daytime snowfall and the fact this storm is going to move very fast. I will adjust on my second forecast map if necessary.

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Post by frank 638 Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:46 pm

Loving it frank thank you for ur post bring on the ⛄

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:06 pm

Very nice, cannot complain about that map one bit. Just hope those pesky 850s stay away for all. So if that back end does build in the people not far NW are they go see rain wash all the snow away on Friday?
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Post by DAYBLAZER Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:06 pm

Today was the first day that I was able to actually see my whole walkway and driveway since the 2/1 storm. The last of the buildup melted in the 49 degree heatwave we had up here today.

Not that I'm complaining, mind you. Bring it on. Great explanation and write-up Frank, much appreciated as always.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:19 pm

00z NAM has an even more robust jet streak than 18z...madonne

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Namconus_uv250_us_fh23_trend.gif.8c3d69ae0f90b38547f491dec85e3a3a

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:20 pm

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Nam-218-all-ma-refc_ptype-3671200.png.547a236ee5ff252530d471f9afffcdd5

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Nam-218-all-ma-refc_ptype-3682000.png.c7c60c37d40a8ae40316d3eb967f15a6

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:22 pm

By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:26 pm

Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf

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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:26 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

How do we have such different images for the same hour
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 2c16e210
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:29 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf
how much of that yellow around NYC is rain or IP do you think to cut into the snowfall? And yeah pivotal isnt showing same thing.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:31 pm

3km nam has a big area of changeover after the main snow comes through.  Man that is a fast storm, how does it put down 8-12 in literally like 6 hrs, its go snow that hard?

edit well on 3km totals are less.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:34 pm

It might...

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Fg11

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:35 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

How do we have such different images for the same hour
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 2c16e210

Position of the low is the same. My guess is different resolutions is causing differences in how precip is shown. But that’s kinda strange.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf
how much of that yellow around NYC is rain or IP do you think to cut into the snowfall? And yeah pivotal isnt showing same thing.

Probably .20 or so.

@jmanley32 wrote:3km nam has a big area of changeover after the main snow comes through.  Man that is a fast storm, how does it put down 8-12 in literally like 6 hrs, its go snow that hard?

I guess you didn’t read my post!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:36 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:It might...

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Fg11

Someone did Thumbs up

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:39 pm

NAM also shows what I said about extending the duration of the storm. Bad news for the coast is that precip that falls after 8pm Thursday may not be snow. But it helps areas N&W

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 00-Z-20210217-NAMNSTMA-prec-ptype-30-57-10-100-gif-57686e444575b10b6bf342a0d5f2c175

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:41 pm

Great write up. I think your map makes good sense based on the frontogenesis and risk for mixing. Areas that band well and have minimal mixing will approach 1' and that will most likely be NW-I95.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:41 pm

Frank your map is almost identical to regular 00z NAM snow map.
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Post by Irish Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:41 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

That's more than just the coast. No?

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:43 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@aiannone wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

How do we have such different images for the same hour
Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 2c16e210

Position of the low is the same. My guess is different resolutions is causing differences in how precip is shown. But that’s kinda strange.

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf
how much of that yellow around NYC is rain or IP do you think to cut into the snowfall? And yeah pivotal isnt showing same thing.

Probably .20 or so.

@jmanley32 wrote:3km nam has a big area of changeover after the main snow comes through.  Man that is a fast storm, how does it put down 8-12 in literally like 6 hrs, its go snow that hard?

I guess you didn’t read my post!!
Oh I did read your post, just so hard believe, that would be harder than we saw in last two storms, too bad its not for hours on end haha
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:45 pm

@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

That's more than just the coast. No?

Anyone east of 95 is coast in my book

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Post by Irish Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:48 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Irish wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:By Thursday 7pm the NAM is showing the coast changing over

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast B265A60F-9D71-4637-8ACA-6ADBF008CCFF.png.2feda5737a551e2340ea756681bf3757

That's more than just the coast. No?

Anyone east of 95 is coast in my book

Gotcha, close enough.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:02 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf

Frank:

Isn't that precip as of 10PM Thursday night? If so wouldn't areas especially to the north of NYC expect more precip and snow after this?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:10 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...that northern cut off. Gotta watch it

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast 628F11CE-C793-4ED6-BB00-A8C23446E170.png.e41fe47cc9d085ae82e617ae2beb96cf

Frank:

Isn't that precip as of 10PM Thursday night? If so wouldn't areas especially to the north of NYC expect more precip and snow after this?

Yes...here’s the real total. Not a whole lot expanded north but it did some.

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Namconus_apcpn_neus_21


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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:12 pm

Icon definitely expanding the precip north.

18z

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Icon_apcpn_neus_17

00z

Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast Icon_apcpn_neus_15

Run hasn’t finished

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Post by Fededle22 Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:22 pm

Great potential for this storm and looking forward to what it does. Great write up Frank as usual. What are looking at with timing? Start-Finish? It's looking like it may continue into Friday as well.
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