Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

WOW that blob moving into southern NJ, 45-50dbz in there!! is anyone under that? That will thump if it holds together.

Steel slitting. Wait, strike that, reverse it. Still sleeting. It mixes from time to time, but then always back to sleet. We might be able to build a sleet man soon!

(Sorry Snowey!! I shouldn’t do this to you, but at this point, might as well get ready to measurement!)

SENJsnowman wrote:Steel slitting. Wait, strike that, reverse it. Still sleeting. It mixes from time to time, but then always back to sleet. We might be able to build a sleet man soon!

(Sorry Snowey!! I shouldn’t do this to you, but at this point, might as well get ready to measurement!)

SENJ, I mean this sincerely, as much as I love snow and am enjoying watching the snow out my window, I think if I was given the chance to have it stop here but transfer to your backyard so you could enjoy it today, I would make that sacrifice so that your snowman measuring stick could get put to good use and your kids could build a "snowman" -- which is inherently much better and fluffier in personality than his cousin the "sleetman", who has a much icier demeanor.

I agree with billg. I would gladly donate some of my snow 'stash' to SENJ without a second thought. If someone wants to pay for a dump truck and front end loader, I have ample supply in my front yard.

amugs wrote:

that precip to thje south moving what looks like for all of NJ and eventually up into NYC area is easily 3 inches per hr.

Heavy snow has returned.

22.8/20.3

Flakes are getting bigger mixing in with the very fine flakes. My dad used to say that it was either going to changeover when you saw that or it was ending, which is not true at all in this case.

Yep.

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1043 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

DEZ001-NJZ007>010-012>020-026-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-181645-
New Castle-Salem-Camden-Coastal Ocean-Mercer-Northwestern
Burlington-Ocean-Morris-Hunterdon-Eastern Monmouth-Western
Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Gloucester-Lower
Bucks-Lehigh-Eastern Montgomery-Northampton-Upper Bucks-Western
Montgomery-Delaware-Eastern Chester-Western
Chester-Philadelphia-Berks-
1043 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHERN
OCEAN...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...MERCER...
SOMERSET...NORTHWESTERN SALEM...SOUTH CENTRAL MORRIS...HUNTERDON...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...NORTHERN BURLINGTON...MONMOUTH...
MIDDLESEX...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BERKS...SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH...
BUCKS...CHESTER...PHILADELPHIA...SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 1042 AM EST, an area of heavy snow was located along a line
extending from near Coatesville to Lawrenceville.

Snowfall rates of around an inch and a half per hour will be common
within this band. Given temperatures in the 20s and the cold ground,
road conditions will rapidly deteriorate. In addition, the
visibility will be reduced to one quarter of a mile within the heavy
snow.

Be prepared for snow covered roads. Slow down and allow extra time
when traveling.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Toms River, Reading, Trenton, Camden, Wilmington, New
Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Newark, Long Branch, Easton, West Chester,
Asbury Park, Somerville, Gloucester City, Sandy Hook, Somerset,
Edison, Lakewood and Bethlehem.

This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 3 and 12.
Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 296 and 359.
Northeast Extension between mile markers 21 and 57.
Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 40.
Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 6 and 23.
Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 327 and 351.
Interstate 76 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 3.
Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 54 and 76.
Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 43.
Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 34.
Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 76.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 29.
Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1.
Interstate 676 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4.
Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19.
Interstate 176 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 1 and 11.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 86 and 133.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this area of heavy snow.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4001 7399 3998 7476 3965 7554 3968 7579
3972 7579 3972 7613 4014 7588 4030 7612
4076 7526 4072 7439 4067 7446 4066 7440
4060 7446 4059 7420 4046 7426 4041 7398
4048 7402 4048 7401 4043 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 217DEG 52KT 3991 7581 4027 7474

$$

BAH

Jiminey Cricket that area of 50dbz precip my lord, that looks to hit nearly everyone as it moves NE to NNE, hopefully it holds together thats some epic rates right there, what did Frank say about a batch of snow that could put down 3-4 inches in 1 hr? kudos to him if this area is doing so.

The radar is really juiced well below the Mason Dixon Line.

2" measured here at 10:45 AM

billg315 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Steel slitting. Wait, strike that, reverse it. Still sleeting. It mixes from time to time, but then always back to sleet. We might be able to build a sleet man soon!

(Sorry Snowey!! I shouldn’t do this to you, but at this point, might as well get ready to measurement!)

SENJ, I mean this sincerely, as much as I love snow and am enjoying watching the snow out my window, I think if I was given the chance to have it stop here but transfer to your backyard so you could enjoy it today, I would make that sacrifice so that your snowman measuring stick could get put to good use and your kids could build a "snowman" -- which is inherently much better and fluffier in personality than his cousin the "sleetman", who has a much icier demeanor.

I certainly appreciate that Bill, and if possible I would probably take you up on it. lol. I'm happy to report that all three of the little kids are in quite happy spirits this morning and this fourth big kid has been keeping busy while also earnestly counting the many blessings. My feelings attm mirror the precip. Serenity mixes in with the disappointment now and again. lol.  The weather mix is becoming more prevalent, on the plus side but can't call it snow yet. Not thinking beyond this morning/afternoon as to any other aspect of the storm potential imby, but assuming it's little to none.

by DAYBLAZER on Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:38 am

I agree with billg. I would gladly donate some of my snow 'stash' to SENJ without a second thought. If someone wants to pay for a dump truck and front end loader, I have ample supply in my front yard.

That's awesome...thanks. I guess squeaky wheel does get the grease...

But you know, CP says it all the time. Until that 1st inch is otg, you got nothing but a dream. No such thing as a lock- we all learned that Jan 27, 2015. I knew that coming in and the models all indicated at least a danger sign as recent as 00z last night. But I'm a weenie, so I went to sleep dreaming of waking to a jackpot.  

Definitely changed from sleet to a mix over the past half hour. All right, I've laid to bleed down a while, now I'll get back up and keep on fighting for a 2-3"+ blitz here!

Aaaaand, we're back to sleet.

MOTHER OF SWEET MERCY!!!!!!!

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF SWEET MERCY!!!!!!!

I would assume those higher returns down south is sleet.

No joke that there is a sharp cutoff to the northern part of this, the LHV is mainly snowless (sorry CP and doc, hopefully it fills in) and the north counties of CT aren't seeing snow but the southern counties are.

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF SWEET MERCY!!!!!!!

I would assume those higher returns down south is sleet.

Correct

aiannone wrote:

amugs wrote:MOTHER OF SWEET MERCY!!!!!!!

I would assume those higher returns down south is sleet.

I was go say it has to be, iver never rates like that shown in snow. Why is it the rates shown are different for different types of precip?

If you look at the Dual Pol radar I posted on the last page you can make out the sleet area pretty clearly. Those returns in the orange and red are clearly the sleet area. But the deep greens - which are heavy snow - are still impressive over Bucks Co PA, NW NJ

New Hope update--serious sleet, started about 20 minutes ago. Holding at 25*

Can confirm, it is snowing furiously here in Hopatcong. We have surpassed 2 inches.

This is one of those times that I feel very lucky to be in southern Sussex as opposed to northern. 25-30 miles to my north it's a totally different storm.

Roughly the current snow/sleet line.

DAYBLAZER wrote:Can confirm, it is snowing furiously here in Hopatcong. We have surpassed 2 inches.

This is one of those times that I feel very lucky to be in southern Sussex as opposed to northern. 25-30 miles to my north it's a totally different storm.

Same here, literally to my north maybe 20-30 miles its either very light snow or not snowing at all, crazy cutoff.

jmanley32 wrote:No joke that there is a sharp cutoff to the northern part of this, the LHV is mainly snowless (sorry CP and doc, hopefully it fills in) and the north counties of CT aren't seeing snow but the southern counties are.

Your right j man.Had a period of moderate snow then it stopped, and back to light.This storm seems to be moving more east than north.Anyhoo, got about an inch OTG.

Sleet/Ice fest down here in Atlantic County, NJ 10min outside of Atlantic City. Very slippery out.

Received 2” thus far. Snowing moderately 25F.

Fatter flakes now. Stacking up nicely