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May 2021 Obs and Discussions

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billg315
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Post by amugs Sat May 01, 2021 11:01 pm

Low of 40 this morning. Heat was on arrgghhh!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sun May 02, 2021 12:06 pm

You better be kidding me Mr Euro. GFS is further N and brings snows in NE -courteous of Anthony Siciliano
Euro
May 2021 Obs and Discussions E0YsrQ9WUAAneDd?format=png&name=medium

GFS
May 2021 Obs and Discussions E0YrwCGWUAM7zRS?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Fededle22 Fri May 07, 2021 12:11 pm

This southward dip in the jetstream causing this cold and unseasonable temperatures really stinks. I am ready for Spring and Summer at this point. Anyone have a future forecast of when they think we will have steady warmer temperatures?
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Post by sroc4 Fri May 07, 2021 12:22 pm

@Fededle22 wrote:This southward dip in the jetstream causing this cold and unseasonable temperatures really stinks. I am ready for Spring and Summer at this point.  Anyone have a future forecast of when they think we will have steady warmer temperatures?

It looks like the MJO wave has been quite robust traveling through phases 8-1-2 over the past 2 weeks or so which even for this time of year tends to favor cooler temps in the eastern 3rd of the country.  

IF the MJO forecast is to be taken verbatim it will be traversing into phase 3, losing amplitude, and headed into the Null phase over the next week or so.  Phase 3 is still a relatively cool phase.  That said beyond the next week the mean forecast is slated to re-emerge out into phase 6 which is a warm phase, but there are solns that have it re-emerge in some of the cooler phases again as well.  

So to answer your question more simply, it looks like the last week in may to perhaps early June we might start seeing more sustained normal to above normal temps...IF that MJO comes out in the warm phases with amplitude.  While it mills around in the Null phases however; pretty seasonable temps will still be likely.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Fri May 07, 2021 1:25 pm

Thanks from other threat scott, ok then i may go to new brunswicks town wide garage sale as they are having one.  I just didnt want to go as people arent go set up if its wet. I just checked showing showers all morning tomorrow. I do not think I am go make the trip, even if its just showers people arent go put theior stuff out.
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Post by billg315 Sat May 08, 2021 4:16 pm

55* with a heavy thunderstorm coming through right now with small hail. I'd say the hail is about pea-size. Was pretty rain-free today here up until this heavy band moved in.
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Post by dkodgis Sat May 08, 2021 7:49 pm

Looks like 38 by morning up here. Hanging plants are in and out of the garage for the next week at least. Looks close to being too cold out for them. Typical for this time of year up here in Orange. It rained steadily today for a couple of hours. 227 days until winter.
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Post by Fededle22 Mon May 10, 2021 9:26 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Fededle22 wrote:This southward dip in the jetstream causing this cold and unseasonable temperatures really stinks. I am ready for Spring and Summer at this point.  Anyone have a future forecast of when they think we will have steady warmer temperatures?

It looks like the MJO wave has been quite robust traveling through phases 8-1-2 over the past 2 weeks or so which even for this time of year tends to favor cooler temps in the eastern 3rd of the country.  

IF the MJO forecast is to be taken verbatim it will be traversing into phase 3, losing amplitude, and headed into the Null phase over the next week or so.  Phase 3 is still a relatively cool phase.  That said beyond the next week the mean forecast is slated to re-emerge out into phase 6 which is a warm phase, but there are solns that have it re-emerge in some of the cooler phases again as well.  

So to answer your question more simply, it looks like the last week in may to perhaps early June we might start seeing more sustained normal to above normal temps...IF that MJO comes out in the warm phases with amplitude.  While it mills around in the Null phases however; pretty seasonable temps will still be likely.

Thank you so much for the answer. A little over my head but after looking up some information, it made more sense.
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Post by amugs Wed May 12, 2021 8:24 pm

CME moderately strong.
Signs of things to come be prepared not scared. Just words of caution.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri May 14, 2021 10:54 pm

Two VEIb3/4 Volcanoes go off in Indonesia Sinagung 35k and 40K, initial report said 50k but they adjusted it down to 40k.
Now two moderately big EQ's Fukishima again 6.0 and Indonesia 6.6 All isb24 hours..Sum controls us peeps, sooner you realize and embrace the betterboffbyou are at understanding and preparing for what may come.
Our shield is MUCH weaker than we are being told by scientists...aka NASA, NOAA. This last CME flare should have been a pebble in a pool but it was more like a big rock. Pool being our planet shield and electric sheet circuit known as our Electroverse.
We have two.more minor flares erupting. Things are ramping up in this solar cycle, more flares and CMEs emerging on the Sun's equator, and both hemispheres. If we have an xray flare that would be 3-5x greater than this last flare we just had which is easily possibly then we can be seeing electrical issues- communication systems, wifi, and possible but more likely grid down issues. The latter would not be good.
Watch more of these events both geomagnetic in eq and volcanoes, hail storms, cracks, sinkholes, earth holes, aurora further south, ropes lightsbin the sky and other ancient petroglyphs of sky lights.
Be prepared, not scared!

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Fri May 14, 2021 11:06 pm

May 2021 Obs and Discussions Active10

Look at all the active volcanoes nowadays.

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Mon May 17, 2021 6:49 am

Gonna be a shorts and tank top week folks from Wed on!!! Spring and summer coming into play.
MJO looks to go into warm phases and we may see an in close spin up near Texas . Early June may become active for the SE and Gulf region as all indicators are showing with a favorable MJO phase, pressure pattern and moisture plume.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Tue May 18, 2021 9:07 pm

I take pictures of my perennials every week to see the growth. This time last year, they were well ahead of what they are now. I guess the cool spell in April set them back. It has been a lovely few todays. Today hit 82 and the central air was on. I tested the generators. All is well for hurricane season, Mugs. The gardenias, hibiscus, and flowering plants are all out. Winter starts in 217 days. in 150 days, about OCt 15, maybe we will get some snow. May 2021 Obs and Discussions 1f60b May 2021 Obs and Discussions 1f60b May 2021 Obs and Discussions 1f60b May 2021 Obs and Discussions 1f60b
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Post by frank 638 Sun May 23, 2021 8:43 pm

Hey everyone I hope all of u are well and had a great weekend.so far this weekend I have not hit 90 yet and have not seen any t storms .we definitely need rain it has been very dry last time we seen rain was on mother’s day

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Post by billg315 Mon May 24, 2021 9:49 am

So after a beautiful few days down in South Carolina where the weather was perfect, I returned home to look at the upcoming Memorial Day weekend forecast and . . . well, at least it was a beautiful few days in South Carolina. lol.

Looks like a chilly and damp MDW is ahead. Temps look very chilly Friday night and Saturday morning (some parts of NW NJ might dip into the lower 40s even).  Memorial Day weekend weather has always been a bit of a crapshoot. Barring a change in the forecast in the next couple days looks like this is a losing roll.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue May 25, 2021 8:58 pm

@billg315 wrote:So after a beautiful few days down in South Carolina where the weather was perfect, I returned home to look at the upcoming Memorial Day weekend forecast and . . . well, at least it was a beautiful few days in South Carolina. lol.

Looks like a chilly and damp MDW is ahead. Temps look very chilly Friday night and Saturday morning (some parts of NW NJ might dip into the lower 40s even).  Memorial Day weekend weather has always been a bit of a crapshoot. Barring a change in the forecast in the next couple days looks like this is a losing roll.
Glad you had a great trip and good weather...We are sad with the weather forcast...boat going in the water Friday morning.
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Post by billg315 Wed May 26, 2021 10:48 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@billg315 wrote:So after a beautiful few days down in South Carolina where the weather was perfect, I returned home to look at the upcoming Memorial Day weekend forecast and . . . well, at least it was a beautiful few days in South Carolina. lol.

Looks like a chilly and damp MDW is ahead. Temps look very chilly Friday night and Saturday morning (some parts of NW NJ might dip into the lower 40s even).  Memorial Day weekend weather has always been a bit of a crapshoot. Barring a change in the forecast in the next couple days looks like this is a losing roll.
Glad you had a great trip and good weather...We are sad with the weather forcast...boat going in the water Friday morning.

Yeah haven't seen much improvement in the weekend forecast thus far. Friday looks like a washout, showers Saturday and maybe lingering showers Sunday, although we could catch a break there. But temps look to be in the 50s to mid 60s the whole time. Chilly. Maybe we salvage some sunshine on Monday, but even then a little cool in the 60s.
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Post by billg315 Wed May 26, 2021 3:22 pm

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m. for the entire state of New Jersey. Radar shows a line of strong to severe storms from just north of Binghamton through Central PA down to the Washington D.C. area, moving east. There are additional scattered storms in western PA as well.
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Post by billg315 Wed May 26, 2021 5:37 pm

Incoming for my area:

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Post by frank 638 Wed May 26, 2021 7:20 pm

Just had a quick downpour and that was it 😖😣

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Post by dkodgis Wed May 26, 2021 7:52 pm

Up here near Middletown, it started raining with the sun out about 5 pm and by 6:30 the temp had dropped 20 degrees to 70. It has continued here as a light rain but steady. We could use it
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Post by amugs Fri May 28, 2021 11:04 pm

48* and pouring here. Feels like March. High tomorrow of 50* and Sunday of 56*. 20*
plus below normal. Then end of next week rain again as we settle in to a wettish and below normal pattern till mid month possibly.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 Sat May 29, 2021 7:26 am

At the South Jersey shore: 54* with Rain. NNE wind 22 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Beautiful start to the weekend. Lol.
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Post by dkodgis Sat May 29, 2021 8:16 am

...was 42 this morning. Poured all night.

March with leaves
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Post by frank 638 Sat May 29, 2021 11:14 am

Unbelievable last weekend it was in the 90s this weekend we are stuck in the 50s with rain. 47° with moderate rain I know we need the rain but it had to happen this weekend

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