2021 Tropical Season

Very concerning trends on the shorter range guidance today. Globals so far are a mishmosh. GFS suite deamplified a little bit, GEM looks to have amplified a little bit. EURO Op on deck in 48 minutes.

rb924119 wrote:Hey Scott, take a look at the 12z UKMET……..Henri stops by your place to say hello lol

OH MY

It almost looks to me like Henri is undergoing some form of an eyewall replacement cycle, or at least some kind of convective restructuring, but I am definitely not sure about that. Either way, it’s surely presenting an odd infrared satellite loop this last hour lol

Even though it’s not reflected at the surface, the EURO Op trended toward the short-range guidance aloft, with a deeper, more negatively titled eastern CONUS trough starting at hour 42. The difference from the short-range guidance is still that the EURO is weakening the storm in spite of improving environmental conditions, whereas the short term guidance strengthens it (which would make more sense). As a result, it appears to stay further east. Personally, all I care about is what’s going on aloft at this point.

Umm is Henri developing a eye?! So much for no intensification.

jmanley32 wrote:Umm is Henri developing a eye?! So much for no intensification.

See two comments up ^^ lol but it certainly looks like it’s trying to at face value. Recon found like 999mb pressure on first pass, though, so it would be a pretty high pressure to have an eye like that in my experience, but who knows lol

You can clearly see that the shear has really tilted the mid level center and convection south of its surface center.  The entire north and north west quadrant is devoid of convection.  

The surface center is somewhere under the black circle.  Click on the loop and see for yourself.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=truecolor





The mid level center however is def robust, and firing away.  I doubt its strengthening tilted as such, at least not at the surface.  As soon as the shear lets up it will realign.

Still have time before it strengthens IMHO. Shear doing the dirty

The recon plane confirms this

sroc4 wrote:You can clearly see that the shear has really tilted the mid level center and convection south of its surface center.  The entire north and north west quadrant is devoid of convection.  

The surface center is somewhere under the black circle.  Click on the loop and see for yourself.  
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=truecolor





The mid level center however is def robust, and firing away.  I doubt its strengthening tilted as such, at least not at the surface.  As soon as the shear lets up it will realign.

Once he becomes realigned to me the upper level and lower both look robust and I think we see RI once in primo environment, like rb said a while back I think he maintains or eakens a little as recon shows 6mb up but def not killed off.

Looks like there may be a little dry air to contend with as well. Current Dropsonde sound dry air between about 300mb and 700mb in the SW quadrant. Not sure how much of an issue it will be though

NHC says watches will go up Friday for NE and possibly eastern LI. The cone hasnt moved but the percentage chance for TS force winds is up to 80% for the cape and even 30% into NYC.

There's the weakening albeit small amt

Tropical Storm HENRI
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 19, 2021:

Location: 29.6°N 71.0°W
Maximum Winds: 55 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 25 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:

Zoiks, I am sure this wont happen but 3km NAM has a cat 5 moving in.,....

Levi's latest video says WCS is a landfall in long island, that would be much like the LI express hurrican except from where it originated from.

Pretty big west shift on the 18z GEFS compared to 12z. Fair amount landfall over Long Island

Sanchize06 wrote:Pretty big west shift on the 18z GEFS compared to 12z. Fair amount landfall over Long Island

do you have a image of the gefs 18z? TT still only showing yesterdays 18z.

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Pretty big west shift on the 18z GEFS compared to 12z. Fair amount landfall over Long Island

do you have a image of the gefs 18z? TT still only showing yesterdays 18z.

18z



12z

18z



12z

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:Pretty big west shift on the 18z GEFS compared to 12z. Fair amount landfall over Long Island

do you have a image of the gefs 18z? TT still only showing yesterdays 18z.

18z



12z

wow thats a huge shift west and bad news for us if many of those happened, the further west ones are also the stronger ones.

The large spread in which way this storm goes, and this is stated in Levi's video is unusual only 3 days out. And if the WCS did happen we would have very little time to prepare. Thats another thing that makes the uncertainty in the track bad. We better nail this down much better tomorrow night or theres go be about 24-48 hrs b4 he closes in or heads OTS, unless he slows down a lot.

So it looks like jersey is safe based off these Long Island land falls. Thank god, the jersey shore does not need that.

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:So it looks like jersey is safe based off these Long Island land falls. Thank god, the jersey shore does not need that.

not true a hurricane isn't just the center. The winds go out hundreds of miles sometimes and the rain even further and the seas wpuld be bad even if it passed far right.

Yea but the eastern side is always the bad side. Rough seas are not too much of a concern. Just happy we dodged this bullet.

And thank you jman for all your hard work tracking this. You nailed this.

We def do not know the outcome yet and until it passes I think all those can agree that we did not dodge a bullet. Tom not sure if your being serious or not and also welcome. To the forum. We have a into section you can tell us about yourself if you like. I def am no one to take any credit on this rb and sroc are leading the way. And we are nowhere near the final solution.

Jman I was def being serious. You explain everything in a way someone like me can understand. The others are great but sometimes I cannot understand what they are saying. You have a way of dumbing it for me. So yes they are great and important but you have real value too by making what they are saying make sense to those without their knowledge.

jmanley32 wrote:The large spread in which way this storm goes, and this is stated in Levi's video is unusual only 3 days out. And if the WCS did happen we would have very little time to prepare.  Thats another thing that makes the uncertainty in the track bad.  We better nail this down much better tomorrow night or theres go be about 24-48 hrs b4 he closes in or heads OTS, unless he slows down a lot.

If you didn’t have enough time to prepare for WCS that’s going to fall on you. This has been discussed on every major media and social media outlet for days. Just because you don’t know the final track doesn’t mean you don’t prepare for it ahead of time. Lol