Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:36 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ICON says wagons west. Ooy.
well then...that is surely a S##t show, right smack into nyc. How much stance do we put in the ICON?
ICON to me tends to bounce around from run to run so I would take it for what it is. That being said it was a scary run. If the rest of the 12Z suite trends that way I’ll be much more concerned.

well NAM did not, so I doubt the ARW is right, and who uses that model anyways.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:50 am

GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:56 am

rb924119 wrote:GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.

Yup. Montauk landfall

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:16 pm

actually looks like it went east a bit b4 landfall from 06z. maybe im missing something?

My bad actual landfall is west.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough. If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real. I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run. This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same. 6 of one half dozen of another. I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start. It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west. Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall. So this is a much more complex discussion on that front. The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri. The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri. Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.

I undertsnd

I don’t follow you here, brother. Timing and positioning CAN be one in the same, but in this case I would contend they aren’t, because the trough is moving NW-SE. So if it’s slower/faster, it would just shift along that 1-D axis. However, if it starts from a different position or comes in at a different angle AND a different speed, now you’re changing two dimensions, and the downstream impacts multiply.

I also don’t follow your logic of the ULL getting captured by the mean trough. The mean trough is out west and is nowhere near our features of interest. It’s just the behavior of the ULL (what I am referring to as the trough), it’s associated energy, and Henri’s circulation.

Lastly, I strongly disagree with your thoughts on the effects of the trough’s energy. Whenever you have a phase of vorticity maxima, you add energy to the system. Secondly, when you have a maturing trough (aka tilting negative), you don’t increase the energy of the system but you allow it’s dynamics to be more effectively utilized via consolidation and advection. Add this to the outside presence of a favorable environment for strengthening a tropical cyclone, and this is the reason why the models are projecting the strengthening of Henri, which makes physical sense.

Additionally, by having stronger energy at the base of the ULL/trough, not only do you enhance the the above factors, but you also enhance the ability of the trough to force height falls out ahead of it (which is also to the west of Henri). By forcing increasingly lower heights, you effectively shorten the axis that Henri pivots on, thereby increasing the efficiency of the capture and producing more of an east-west component to the steering flow while reducing the south-north component. This is why we are seeing continued westward trend in the track, and also partially why we see the increasing height tendencies in the Atlantic ridge.

I love the debate, brother!!

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:18 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.

Yup. Montauk landfall

It’s becoming apparent that at least parts of our area are going to have severe impacts from Henri. What once looked like a SNE threat is looking more and more like a threat in our area. Long Island is still the most likely destination, but are the models still adjusting west? Waiting on the latest GEFS and EPS this afternoon. If this storm ticks any closer we got problems on our hands.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:20 pm

GEFS follow suit. Quite the cluster over western Long Island.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:GEFS follow suit. Quite the cluster over western Long Island.

images plz! you love to tease with just words lol.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:21 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GFS should be coming further west as well based on the upper levels.

Yup. Montauk landfall
It’s becoming apparent that at least parts of our area are going to have severe impacts from Henri. What once looked like a SNE threat is looking more and more like a threat in our area. Long Island is still the most likely destination, but are the models still adjusting west? Waiting on the latest GEFS and EPS this afternoon. If this storm ticks any closer we got problems on our hands.

storm mode!! and yes rb said def trends west are still a possibility if not likely if I am correct?

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:24 pm

Not surprisingly, CMC also into Western LI

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEFS follow suit. Quite the cluster over western Long Island.
images plz! you love to tease with just words lol.

Henri - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 14 E790ca10

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:26 pm

rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:27 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEFS follow suit. Quite the cluster over western Long Island.
images plz! you love to tease with just words lol.

wow, thats much more consolidated than last few runs, def west trend, at this rate may be making landfall in nyc

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:27 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Not surprisingly, CMC also into Western LI

Helpful hint: Almost always whatever you see the RGEM do, the GEM is gonna follow it lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:28 pm

IN CASE NO ONE NOTICED FRANK OR ONE THE ADMINS PUT US IN STORM MODE!!

A SEPERATE THREAD FOR THIS NOW NO? OTHERWISE HENRI WILL GET BURIED.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Not surprisingly, CMC also into Western LI

Helpful hint: Almost always whatever you see the RGEM do, the GEM is gonna follow it lol

True, waiting to see if the UKMET goes back toward more of a NYC/Western LI solution

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:34 pm

jmanley32 wrote:rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

My own opinion, *approximate* zone of highest probability of landfall. Yes, I think substantial impacts for the tri-state area.

Henri - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 14 Aa5c3710

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:35 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

My own opinion, *approximate* zone of highest probability of landfall. Yes, I think substantial impacts for the tri-state area.

So I think most likely track is just a touch east of NYC proper.

by Zhukov1945 Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:35 pm

What do the TABs mean, if anything?

Henri - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 14 Tabs11

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:41 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:What do the TABs mean, if anything?

I think they’re just additional models.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:44 pm

UKMET looks to be a western LI landfall, then over NYC, similar to CMC

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:44 pm

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

My own opinion, *approximate* zone of highest probability of landfall. Yes, I think substantial impacts for the tri-state area.

So I think most likely track is just a touch east of NYC proper.

well you put yonkers right down the middle thank you lol, not good, better get to the store today and plan for lights out and hope for not.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:46 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

My own opinion, *approximate* zone of highest probability of landfall. Yes, I think substantial impacts for the tri-state area.

So I think most likely track is just a touch east of NYC proper.
well you put yonkers right down the middle thank you lol, not good, better get to the store today and plan for lights out and hope for not.

I know you like wind Jman, so I figured I’d help you out a little lmao

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:47 pm

Hey would anyone be interested in a zoom meeting tomorrow? Would be pretty cool to discuss it in person instead of 2000 messages here Henri - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 14 1f602

Henri - 2021 Tropical Season - Page 14 1f602

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:rb is this looking more and more possible to be a big threat to the immediate tristate area? several models take it over queens into CT or hudson vallue, we still see eastern LI on the major operationals except cmc has come into agree with a far western LI nyc area landfall. but they continue to trend west, do you still feel a central LI or are you thinking even further west?

My own opinion, *approximate* zone of highest probability of landfall. Yes, I think substantial impacts for the tri-state area.

So I think most likely track is just a touch east of NYC proper.
well you put yonkers right down the middle thank you lol, not good, better get to the store today and plan for lights out and hope for not.

I know you like wind Jman, so I figured I’d help you out a little lmao

Sandy scared the hell out of me, that much wind is not fun. Do not lie to tittlate me lol

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:49 pm

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:49 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Hey would anyone be interested in a zoom meeting tomorrow? Would be pretty cool to discuss it in person instead of 2000 messages here

I am in can it be afternoon or evening?

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