2021 Tropical Season

And Id like to point out that no where in any official NHC forecasts discussions have the even hinted at the idea that any phasing with the ULL will contribute to its intensity forecast,but rather the lower shear and SST being thee main factors.  The ULL, combined with the building ridge to the N&NE of henri, remains the important element in steering elements.  

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very
valuable data.  The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level
wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength,
but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data
and somewhat lower SFMR winds.  In addition, aircraft data indicate
that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb.  The NOAA tail
Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more
vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be
forming.  In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV
aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind
radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the
southeastern quadrant.  NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern
quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas.

Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt.  The
steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri.  This pattern should cause the
storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed
by a slight bend to the left on Sunday.  The latest run of the GFS
has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on
landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on
Sunday.  However, users are reminded to not focus on the center
itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially
to the east.  The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain
strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence
associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs.  In fact,
the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb
or more during that time period.  By early Sunday, Henri is
predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should
cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over
the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected.  Henri is
forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

12z Euro is a bit west of previous run with a noticeably larger wind field. I think Henri phases with the trough more than most models are depicting right now.

SoulSingMG wrote:12z Euro is a bit west of previous run with a noticeably larger wind field. I think Henri phases with the trough more than most models are depicting right now.

sorry can you post image of where makes landfall and how big Winfield is? I wish still had euro access. Ya Winfield is really expanding and prolly will continue. Hurricane winds 60 miles ts 125 up from 115.

Hello , my two cents worth is that it looks like the HRRR has a lock on this. As of right now, it looks the best at modeling the current precip field. It just looks right in other areas too comparing it to what it currently going on.

What do other people think at the present moment?

Wow Henri is def take on a symmetrical spin. But he looks a lot less impressive the convection to the se I think is well away from the center no? They appear to be separating.

The hrrr is much weaker it is not initializing correctly which might mean it would actually b further west than shown.

I am just talking about the positioning of the precip and the direction of motion the model takes the storm. Just the basics. The GFS looks like it is out to lunch. Euro positioning and motion looks similar to the HRRR in general terms.

I will say he is looking much better. LLC finally looks lined up with convection and there us now a blob of convection forming what looks like over or close to the center. I think that junk to the se eventually dissipates and he might actually give us the look of a decent cyclone. Just my thoughts.

RB, what do you think about the HRRR right now? Isn’t NOAA feeding this short term model updated info as it’s passing thru. I can imagine the planes are just flying in and out right now with new data. What do you think?

WeatherBob wrote:I am just talking about the positioning of the precip and the direction of motion the model takes the storm.  Just the basics.  The GFS looks like it is out to lunch.  Euro positioning and motion looks similar to the HRRR in general terms.

It's been consistent with it's track and landfall over central LI. I'll give it that. This would cause major problems IMO. I'm thinking landfall is central-eastern Suffolk.

Current WV and visible Sat loops look like he may be trying to fight off some dry air. Look at S and SE quad

In NWS briefing, even west of the storm is go be bad.

Nassau County, coastal SW CT,
southern Westchester, and interior
coastal CT
 Winds - Moderate potential for 50-60
mph sustained winds with 70-80 mph
gusts.
 Likely Timing - Sunday morning into
afternoon.
 Impacts – Widespread tree damage and
power line damage likely. Wind impacts
could be on the same level of Isiaias.
 NYC/NJ metro counties-
 Winds- Moderate potential for 30-40 mph
sustained winds with 50-60 mph gusts.
 Likely Timing - Sunday morning into
afternoon.
 Impacts – Scattered tree damage and
power line damage possible.

NY declares SOE this morning.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/henri-expected-become-hurricane-inches-closer-long-island-new-england-n1277364

sroc4 wrote:Current WV and visible Sat loops look like he may be trying to fight off some dry air.  Look at S and SE quad

yeah noticed that, i dunno how bad that will get, we will see. wow that ULL is really notable on the water vapor.

Reed Timmer is saying long island is not even in play further east.

Wow nyc 5pm takes him even further east. Tristate may at this rate drop the TS warnings. Bah what a waste time. I mean tracking is always cool but did not expect it to trend back so far East. Just a 30 to 50% chance of ts winds my area west. Just go b nasty rainy day of rather have it stay dry at this PT.

clownloach wrote:Reed Timmer is saying long island is not even in play further east.

where does he think it is going then? Out to sea?

Looks like your 30% chance area will verify rb. Looks like where you thought he would go was 100 to 200 miles too far west. Good work thpugh. At this rate CT may be on Western side.

Buzzards Bay and Nantucket Sound.

clownloach wrote:Buzzards Bay and Nantucket Sound.

wow well if that happens will be a non event for all of us. who is that btw, sorry guys im get frustrated. just annoying all this bouncing around within 12-18 hrs of first effects, it would be crazy if CT ended up not getting a hutticane and all the warnings were shifted to cape cod.

well ray you got the arw in your camp lol, been very consistent with heading as far west as you show. But ive never looked at that model before and I am assuming it is a tosser?

Is THAT AN EYE? OR JUST A VERY CIRCULAR opening in the clouds, looks like a eye to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

ray we got our good looking storm and i am pretty sure that is a eye clearing out! RI possibly?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis

AHHH HRRR, gets to LI then due west turn?!!

jmanley32 wrote:Is THAT AN EYE? OR JUST A VERY CIRCULAR opening in the clouds, looks like a eye to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

Yep sure does....................

Joe Snow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Is THAT AN EYE? OR JUST A VERY CIRCULAR opening in the clouds, looks like a eye to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

Yep sure does....................

what do you think about NHC continued push to the east and that met the other user was saying they think nantucket, a stronger storm which clearly he is becoming is likely going to head more west watch 11pm advisory shift cone back west lol, this is so funny in a way. recon on its way in im guessing we see at minimum a 80mph cane.

Drove back from being upstate and in the Ramapo Service Area both sides filled with utilities trucks!! And about 8 in a convoy coming South from Binghamton as we drove as well.
They don't do this for shits n giggles.