2021 Tropical Season

So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better, let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?

dkodgis wrote:So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better,  let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?

Possibly, who knows only TD 7 does. Do not stop it at just a rain potential do not forget how destructive Isiahs was last summer. Not saying anything is going to happen but the conditions are right for a potential real tropical system to come up the coast. Will be interesting to watch to see if our pros and JB may be onto something.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I don’t like what I’m seeing in the Day 8-12 period. Newfoundland Wheel gonna be spinning in place in a blocked North Atlantic pattern. I’m not *necessarily* concerned with something coming out of the deep tropics per se’, although that is also a formidable risk with MJO Phase 2/3, especially with the advertised blocking. But I’d definitely be on the lookout for a tropical transition of a disturbance that can sit and fester beneath the block and then be driven westward beneath it while strengthens coming ashore. Especially since there’s a well advertised, potential cold front pushing through thanks to the West-Pac typhoons earlier last week. This requires a deeper dive over the next couple of days for sure, because it’s got my attention.

Yes sir.  Like the great JB always says....Ridge over troubled waters.  This looks really interesting.  The EC def needs to monitor this as we head into next week.  Jon its the area east of the Lesser Antilles around 50W that Im looking at.  

I will say TD7 has a really nice LLC and some good convection blowing up. This may not be one to sleep on in path and intensity.

dkodgis wrote:So if all the hairs align on the head of this storm, we might see very heavy rain around these parts. Too early but since I’m a novice and I don’t know better,  let me throw out late Wed night into Fri morning. Who will tell me if I am talking through my hat?

I wouldn’t put a limit on it just yet Damian, as Jman said. Wide range of possibilities on the table right now, especially on account of the factors I mentioned in my first post.

Jman, the threat may not actually come from a truly tropical entity. It very well could, but my first post wasn’t banking on that. As of that posting, I’m more fearful of something brewed closer to home and then retrograding. Models so far tonight appear to have given that idea more merit, though at face value, still look to be a bit meager with their reflections. Plenty of time to watch and analyses to come lol

Mugsy, you had to bring Webb into this just to spite me, ehh? Lmaooo jk jk

I can’t say I disagree with him here, though.

rb924119 wrote:Mugsy, you had to bring Webb into this just to spite me, ehh? Lmaooo jk jk

I can’t say I disagree with him here, though.

Sorry Rb did not know you got in the Webb!!!
Looks like another panhandle region strike with Fred as a moderate tp strong TS as it should strengthen due to the warm Gulf Waters and the low shear environment.

Grace on Fred's heels

EURO FTW!!!!

rb924119 wrote:EURO FTW!!!!

Are you talking the system south of LI on day 10? Looks like Grace heading to gulf.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:EURO FTW!!!!

Are you talking the system south of LI on day 10? Looks like Grace heading to gulf.

Precisely!! THAT’s the threat that has more of my attention right now.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:EURO FTW!!!!

Are you talking the system south of LI on day 10? Looks like Grace heading to gulf.

Precisely!! THAT’s the threat that has more of my attention right now.

Weak, but for the Euro at this range 1006mb is in fact pretty stout. As you said models especially the operationals are not reliable especially 10 days out, and with the tropics it can change 12 hrs out. I will continue to look for your thoughts but 10 days is quite a ways away.

Rb I think the NHC just marked your area near bermuda, moving SW, is that the area that has you interested?

jmanley32 wrote:Rb I think the NHC just marked your area near bermuda, moving SW, is that the area that has you interested?

That’s the one!! Really need to take a look a this now - I’m already overdue aha

Ok, I’m gonna sound the alarm on this. Places from Myrtle Beach through Cape Cod need to pay very close attention to TD-8 in my opinion. I think we are gonna end up with a storm riding either along, or just offshore of the East Coast that then will likely stall and even retrograde some near our latitude as it interacts with mid-latitude energy that gets shunted southeastward beneath the eastern North American ridge and bottled up in response to the blocking in the Atlantic domain. As for intensity, I can see a maintenance ranging from tropical storm to mid-grade category 1. I don’t like this look. AT ALL. Look for continued trends in guidance over the next several days, as there are MANY working parts with this.

I may do a video discussion on this one if I have time, but I’ll try to at least post a more thorough discussion when I have time.

Alrighty then. Interesting times ahead

There is one caveat to this evolution; the storm may end up shearing out ahead of the interaction with the mid-latitude energy instead of feeding off of the energy associated with it. If it shears out, we’re fine. But it’s the pattern that has me leery of accepting a fizzling storm missing wide right.

Completely tossing the GFS Operational right now because of what it’s doing with the H5 energy associated with TD-8. It completely splits it in half, which makes no sense to me whatsoever.

I think once it fixes that, it will start showing more of an interaction at H5 with the incoming trough, and therefore align much more closely with what I’m thinking the evolution will be. H7 looks ok to me, but because H5 is screwy, it’s throwing the rest of the run off, in my opinion.

Holy GEFS.

00z ICON is almost exactly the track I’ve been envisioning, tbh. So in lieu of a drawing, take that track and that’s been my gut instinct so far.

rb924119 wrote:00z ICON is almost exactly the track I’ve been envisioning, tbh. So in lieu of a drawing, take that track and that’s been my gut instinct so far.

It sure does, NHC certainly doesnt see that with Henri now. I will be watching the forecast and seeing how it changes cuz NHC always changes things 500x as you said lots of working parts here.

For the non-model folks who do not have access to visuals, what is this track then? Where is it now and how might it go and where does it end over what time period near us? Just spitballing here.

rb924119 wrote:Completely tossing the GFS Operational right now because of what it’s doing with the H5 energy associated with TD-8. It completely splits it in half, which makes no sense to me whatsoever.

There has been northerly shear for the past few days pushing the mid level circulation/convection south of the surface center.  I see what your talking about.  Looking at mid level and upper level shear the strength of the shear seems to want to intensify a little over the next 24-36hrs of so so I think the GFS wanted to completely decouple the mid level moisture from the surface center which is certainly a plausible soln if the mid level shear wins out.  That said just looking at satellite imagery this morning it certainly looks like there is healthier convection going off closer to over the top of the LLC, hence why it was upgraded from TD to TS overnight.  We shall see how the shear part of the equation plays out over the next day or so.

As far as your idea of it retrograding far enough west to actually tickle excitement centers Im much more pessimistic on this idea.  The Eastern Canadian ridging seems to me to be trending centered a tad further west than Id like to see to trigger enough of a westward trend.  I feel like there will be too much of a weakness to the ENE and NE with a strong ULL near southern Greenland that will allow the eventual escape.  We shall see as it wouldn't take a whole lot of change in the modeling, particularly stronger eastern flank to the ridging in E Canada, to change the course of things.  Well see.

dkodgis wrote:For the non-model folks who do not have access to visuals, what is this track then?  Where is it now and how might it go and where does it end over what time period near us? Just spitballing here.

My **approximate** track. ICON was a little further north with the loop over Long Island.

The GFS might get it done this run. It was close at 06z. I don’t like the look of this…..

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Completely tossing the GFS Operational right now because of what it’s doing with the H5 energy associated with TD-8. It completely splits it in half, which makes no sense to me whatsoever.

There has been northerly shear for the past few days pushing the mid level circulation/convection south of the surface center.  I see what your talking about.  Looking at mid level and upper level shear the strength of the shear seems to want to intensify a little over the next 24-36hrs of so so I think the GFS wanted to completely decouple the mid level moisture from the surface center which is certainly a plausible soln if the mid level shear wins out.  That said just looking at satellite imagery this morning it certainly looks like there is healthier convection going off closer to over the top of the LLC, hence why it was upgraded from TD to TS overnight.  We shall see how the shear part of the equation plays out over the next day or so.

As far as your idea of it retrograding far enough west to actually tickle excitement centers Im much more pessimistic on this idea.  The Eastern Canadian ridging seems to me to be trending centered a tad further west than Id like to see to trigger enough of a westward trend.  I feel like there will be too much of a weakness to the ENE and NE with a strong ULL near southern Greenland that will allow the eventual escape.  We shall see as it wouldn't take a whole lot of change in the modeling, particularly stronger eastern flank to the ridging in E Canada, to change the course of things.  Well see.

FINALLY some discussion!! Haha

Overall, the shear is a non-factor IMO. It’s literally sitting beneath a stacked tropospheric ridge in an area of very light steering flow except for up near the tropopause. Nearly ideal for the next few days. Once the shear finally starts increasing, it will be from the approach of the trough which means it will start encountering the dynamics/forcing for ascent associated with that, thereby limiting the negative impact from the moderate but steady increase in shear. This is why I mentioned a general maintenance of intensity.

Regarding the retrograde, the enhanced/further westward expansion of the ridging is exactly why I’m concerned. It should continue to strengthen on guidance as a result of the Atlantic domain log jam, which would effectively close off access to your weakness.