*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread

[Frank_Wx]

I am not expecting this to be a major concern for our area, but it bares watching for sure  

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/invest-97-l-potential-impact.html

[docstox12]

I am not expecting this to be a major concern for our area, but it bares watching for sure  

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/invest-97-l-potential-impact.html

Well, it would be great to see some measurable rain up here.I'd love to see that pattern set in place for winter, storms originating in the Gulf and swinging up the coast.

Trout stream up North dry as a bone.Need 2-3 inches of rain up there to get it to better levels for me in late October-early November.

[cooladi]

Now Tropical Storm Karen.  Which way will she go?

[Frank_Wx]

Somewhere between the apps and NJ state. But she will not be Karen by the time she gets here. Just a large area of moisture. Maybe some wind, no more than 30 mph.

[cooladi]

Thanks Frank. We do need the rain...

[Frank_Wx]

Hour 78 12z GFS

[Frank_Wx]

Hour 102

[Frank_Wx]

Hour 114



Heavy rainfall

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like a 2-3 inch rain event, according to this run of the GFS model. Keep in mind EURO model has NOTHING for the area. Amazing how opposite they are

[Quietace]

Karen though a 65mph at 999mb storm, is certainly feeling the effects of wind shear and especially the dry air in the western GOM. Their is almost no convection on the west side of the system. Yesterday, she was much more symmetrical and healthy. Yet, Lucky for Karen, she has maintained a close cluster of convection around the center of the system allowing it to maintain its strength in its environment. If any dry air from the west ends up embedded into the center of circulation, this could weaken moderately to a lower tropical storm. If not, the higher end of the model intensity might be achievable as forecasted.  


Upon further examination is appears that Karen might have a partially exposed center west of the burst of convection, inferring their is more dry air embedded in the system then the water vapor loop is showing.

[Frank_Wx]

Karen looks like poo. This will be a normal rainstorm for our area. Late Sunday night into all of Monday. General 1-2 inches, which were my initial thoughts in the blog anyway. There are too many unfavorable factors prohibiting Karen from strengthening.

[sroc4]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

LLC has become completely decoupled from the area of convection.

[Frank_Wx]

All that dry air.

[Frank_Wx]

Apparently euro only shows .50 inches of rain.

Yikes, we may be on our way to a drought.

[Math23x7]

Karen has been downgraded to a tropical depression...

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