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*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:16 am

I am not expecting this to be a major concern for our area, but it bares watching for sure Smile 

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/invest-97-l-potential-impact.html


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by docstox12 Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:08 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I am not expecting this to be a major concern for our area, but it bares watching for sure Smile 

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/invest-97-l-potential-impact.html
Well, it would be great to see some measurable rain up here.I'd love to see that pattern set in place for winter, storms originating in the Gulf and swinging up the coast.

Trout stream up North dry as a bone.Need 2-3 inches of rain up there to get it to better levels for me in late October-early November.
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Post by cooladi Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:32 am

Now Tropical Storm Karen.  Which way will she go?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:34 am

Somewhere between the apps and NJ state. But she will not be Karen by the time she gets here. Just a large area of moisture. Maybe some wind, no more than 30 mph.
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Post by cooladi Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:39 am

Thanks Frank. We do need the rain...

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:01 pm

*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread Hour_710

Hour 78 12z GFS
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:03 pm

Hour 102

*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread Hour_110
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:10 pm

Hour 114

*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread Hour_111

Heavy rainfall
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:11 pm

Looks like a 2-3 inch rain event, according to this run of the GFS model. Keep in mind EURO model has NOTHING for the area. Amazing how opposite they are
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Post by Quietace Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:43 pm

Karen though a 65mph at 999mb storm, is certainly feeling the effects of wind shear and especially the dry air in the western GOM. Their is almost no convection on the west side of the system. Yesterday, she was much more symmetrical and healthy. Yet, Lucky for Karen, she has maintained a close cluster of convection around the center of the system allowing it to maintain its strength in its environment. If any dry air from the west ends up embedded into the center of circulation, this could weaken moderately to a lower tropical storm. If not, the higher end of the model intensity might be achievable as forecasted.  
*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread Wv-l10
*Blog* Tropical Storm Karen Thread Vis-l10
Upon further examination is appears that Karen might have a partially exposed center west of the burst of convection, inferring their is more dry air embedded in the system then the water vapor loop is showing.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:49 pm

Karen looks like poo. This will be a normal rainstorm for our area. Late Sunday night into all of Monday. General 1-2 inches, which were my initial thoughts in the blog anyway. There are too many unfavorable factors prohibiting Karen from strengthening.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:47 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb-animated.gif

LLC has become completely decoupled from the area of convection.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:04 pm

All that dry air.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:07 pm

Apparently euro only shows .50 inches of rain.

Yikes, we may be on our way to a drought.
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:04 pm

Karen has been downgraded to a tropical depression...

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