Long Range Discussion 22.0

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

Not a whole lot to add to Matty Ice's comments.  

Click the link.  This is the current winds at the 10 mb level.  Save this link to favorites and come back to it in a few weeks to see how it has evolved.

For those who have never seen this site its pretty cool.  Bottom left click on "EARTH" to play with the different levels of the atmosphere from 10 mb(hpa) of the stratosphere down to the surface.  Also left click and hold anywhere over the image and move the mouse to manipulate the position of the earth view and use your mouses wheel to zoom in and out.  

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-80.99,72.04,414

CP has awoken from his slumber!!
MattICE ICE baby this would change the complexity of the pattern and cause higher pressures over the Arctic dislodged arctic air southward. This shows a perturbed polar vortex. The affects would be very positive overall.
Good explanation Matty.

Now for the MJO wave. See the greenish colors those are our waves, lower pressures. The map underneath shows the phases of the MJO. Remember phase 8-1-2 are the heart of winter phases we do very well with wintry weather.

We are in phase seven going into 8.
Then you see at Jan 6th time through the end of the run the wave develops in the Indian Ocean and is a strong 1 then 2 as we end Jan. This aligns with Rb thoughts on 2nd week to 3rd week things take off. Patience for sure but looking very good.

MattyICE wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

I’m not them, lol, but this is my stab - VERBATIM this indicates a reversal of the zonal winds way up at the top of the stratosphere. This would end our period of a very strong (positive) polar vortex and suggest at least a significant weakening - maybe even a sudden stratospheric warming event or something in between (regardless it would portend a negative Arctic Oscillation and help displace colder air further south). If the strat and trop are coupled there is still frequently a lag of usually 2 weeks before results propagate down to our sensible weather. Could be right inline with a lot of what Ray has been highlighting as his process and timeline, if correct.

Spot on

Very nice gfs run starting from Dec 26.



Yes the storms get shredded but there is plenty of cold air around. NAO doing work.

sroc4 wrote:I’ve been quiet. I am just not sure. I am just not that excited about any of it right now. Until the PNA region changes I just don’t know. The PNA is currently sitting between -3 & -4 standard deviations and forecast is to get down to -5 over the next 3-5 days, and remain somewhere between -4 & -5 for 7-10days beyond that before slowly coming back up as we head into the first week of Jan. But even then it’s still -1 to -2. With a PNA that negative it give the atmosphere a back door to slip out of. It allows the cold to pool in the west despite  the -NAO/-AO/-EPO,  Make no mistake it will get colder than it has been for sure, and there may be some snow chances, but the sustained cold and more importantly and likely is the storm track is likely to remain meh at best. At least for awhile.

I think very cautious optimism is needed right now.

Quiet? More like MIA lmao I’ve been waiting for some form of rebuttal, or discussion, or SOMETHING, and we’ve gotten less than crickets haha I was getting ready to send the search party for you and CP! Haha

Regarding the rest of your post, though, patience will be key over the next few weeks yet, IMO. I fully agree that there isn’t anything to get excited about before then, but I am still very much liking Week 2/the middle ten days of January as our transition, and I still firmly think there is A LOT to be excited about. But, we have to survive until then.

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

MattyICE wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

amugs wrote:if true then whoa!!

If true the pattern will do a complete 180

Let’s hope!!

Frank or Mugs please explain. I have barely a clue what this represents. I know it’s something I’d like just from Mugsys reaction and Frank’s comment but would love to know the reason. Also what time period are we talking about this possible 180?

Thanks I advance.

I’m not them, lol, but this is my stab - VERBATIM this indicates a reversal of the zonal winds way up at the top of the stratosphere. This would end our period of a very strong (positive) polar vortex and suggest at least a significant weakening - maybe even a sudden stratospheric warming event or something in between (regardless it would portend a negative Arctic Oscillation and help displace colder air further south). If the strat and trop are coupled there is still frequently a lag of usually 2 weeks before results propagate down to our sensible weather. Could be right inline with a lot of what Ray has been highlighting as his process and timeline, if correct.

NAILED IT.

amugs wrote:CP has awoken from his slumber!!
MattICE ICE baby this would change the complexity of the pattern and cause higher pressures over the Arctic dislodged arctic air southward. This shows a perturbed polar vortex. The affects would be very positive overall.
Good explanation Matty.

Now for the MJO wave. See the greenish colors those are our waves, lower pressures. The map underneath shows the phases of the MJO. Remember phase 8-1-2 are the heart of winter phases we do very well with wintry weather.

We are in phase seven going into 8.
Then you see at Jan 6th time through the end of the run the wave develops in the Indian Ocean and is a strong 1 then 2 as we end Jan. This aligns with Rb thoughts on 2nd week to 3rd week things take off. Patience for sure but looking very good.

We’re almost to the boat, mugs!! We can do this!! I just hope the line doesn’t snap when we finally get it to the boat!! Lmao loose drag, and take what it gives us; it’s a war of attrition, a battle of the wills!! Who relents first, us, or our whale of a forecast??? As far as I’m concerned……..

“That taxidermist is gonna have a heart attack when he sees what we brung “im!!” Haha

Mjo on the euro and gfs stalls the mjo in 7

 That's why it's warm now but it's not bad in January. Phase 8 and 1 are the better phases in January. 

In Nina years past when you get a "westerly wind burst", a run of negative SOI values, Ie: 3-5days min, amidst a strongly positive base state, which is def where we have been, about 7days later, (give or take), the tendency is to get a trough to arrive in the east.  The past 2 days we may have been seeing the beginning of a true westerly wind burst.  Lets see if this trend rings true this season if we get a few more negative SOI days.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

If we lose the negative AO in January then I guess we can hope for PV perturbation to help our winter chances.  We just have a lot moving pieces that have to break right for us.  I'm not optimistic in these parts for moving pieces to fall correctly.  In different regions can get away with a lot more, but not here unfortunately.  We wait and see, but my eye doesn't like the AO projections nor the hostile PAC.

We can't even get a strong storm in this pattern .

Mid Atlantic, SNE , PA and even the lake regions are struggling in this pattern .

Snow88 wrote:We can't even get a strong storm in this pattern .

Mid Atlantic, SNE , PA and even the lake regions are struggling in this pattern .

This tells it all Tony

Correct me if I’m wrong. There’s two concurrent conversations taking place in this thread. One is about the 7-10 long range forecast which looks to be as crappy as the last 7-10 days were due to a continued -pna, + nao, mjo7 and a stout se ridge. The other is about the extended long range forecast which continues to show a potential mid Jan flip to mjo 8, + pna, -nao and/or sswe/pv disruption into Canada.

There had been some hope for this present pattern to produce at least a little something by late Dec, but that’s now doneski. And at the same the indicators continue to give real hope for that 180 that Frank mentioned yesterday.

And there’s rb who said yes to both of these two weeks ago and that the worse this pattern gets, the better the flip actually could be for us. And so far, his sketch has played out.

So, I just want to know if that’s an accurate synthesis of what’s been discussed here the last few days.

SENJsnowman wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong. There’s two concurrent conversations taking place in this thread. One is about the 7-10 long range forecast which looks to be as crappy as the last 7-10 days were due to a continued -pna, + nao, mjo7 and a stout se ridge. The other is about the extended long range forecast which continues to show a potential mid Jan flip to mjo 8, + pna, -nao and/or sswe/pv disruption into Canada.

There had been some hope for this present pattern to produce at least a little something by late Dec, but that’s now doneski.  And at the same the indicators continue to give real hope for that 180 that Frank mentioned yesterday.

And there’s rb who said yes to both of these two weeks ago and that the worse this pattern gets, the better the flip actually could be for us. And so far, his sketch has played out.

So, I just want to know if that’s an accurate synthesis of what’s been discussed here the last few days.

My take the PNA is a big problem as it's forcing a stout SE ridge just to our west which stops colder air from advancing east and kills any hope of storm amplification.  Even that being said I'd dare to say those NW of 95 will probably see some snow accumulations before NYD due to AO.  Some meaning very modest on the order of a few inches.  The issue is when you move the PNA trough and consequently SE ridge what do you give up?  Does the NAO/AO give in or does the Aleutian ridge give in a bit?  I work backwards from the AO personally and if we lose that then I think it'd tough to overcome on the coastal plain.  Not that this -PNA is much better., but push comes to shove I'll take the -AO.  The MJO and it's effects are tough to call.  The waves are fickle and if you ask 3 different experts you'll get 3 different answers.  The PV perturbation is just as tough call to know it's effects on our sensible weather. La Nina bad starts generally don't end well historically. RB has been very accurate so far this year and I applaud him trying to make sense of such enormous complexity.

heehaw453 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong. There’s two concurrent conversations taking place in this thread. One is about the 7-10 long range forecast which looks to be as crappy as the last 7-10 days were due to a continued -pna, + nao, mjo7 and a stout se ridge. The other is about the extended long range forecast which continues to show a potential mid Jan flip to mjo 8, + pna, -nao and/or sswe/pv disruption into Canada.

There had been some hope for this present pattern to produce at least a little something by late Dec, but that’s now doneski.  And at the same the indicators continue to give real hope for that 180 that Frank mentioned yesterday.

And there’s rb who said yes to both of these two weeks ago and that the worse this pattern gets, the better the flip actually could be for us. And so far, his sketch has played out.

So, I just want to know if that’s an accurate synthesis of what’s been discussed here the last few days.

My take the PNA is a big problem as it's forcing a stout SE ridge just to our west which stops colder air from advancing east and kills any hope of storm amplification.  Even that being said I'd dare to say those NW of 95 will probably see some snow accumulations before NYD due to AO.  Some meaning very modest on the order of a few inches.  The issue is when you move the PNA trough and consequently SE ridge what do you give up?  Does the NAO/AO give in or does the Aleutian ridge give in a bit?  I work backwards from the AO personally and if we lose that then I think it'd tough to overcome on the coastal plain.  Not that this -PNA is much better., but push comes to shove I'll take the -AO.  The MJO and it's effects are tough to call.  The waves are fickle and if you ask 3 different experts you'll get 3 different answers.  The PV perturbation is just as tough call to know it's effects on our sensible weather.  La Nina bad starts generally don't end well historically.  RB has been very accurate so far this year and I applaud him trying to make sense of such enormous complexity.

Ok, so if I follow your big picture thinking here, where I have bolded is where you transition away from here to nye and more into early Jan and your concerns for how those pattern changing dominoes might actually fall in a way that would make the dead of winter just awful to endure for a coastal snow weenie like me. Not your prediction, but what could go wrong even if things at first seem to go right.

So, you want to see if the pna changes at all first and then also what the effects of that change is? Because the change doesn’t necessarily have to create a good effect in the end for us.

Essentially we have another baby bear. Not only do these changes have to actually take place, but they also have to the hoped for results down stream. Got it. Patience, trust the process AND hope for the best. Thank you heehaw!!  

In the meantime me and that stout pna getting ready for some twilight bbq.

SENJsnowman wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong. There’s two concurrent conversations taking place in this thread. One is about the 7-10 long range forecast which looks to be as crappy as the last 7-10 days were due to a continued -pna, + nao, mjo7 and a stout se ridge. The other is about the extended long range forecast which continues to show a potential mid Jan flip to mjo 8, + pna, -nao and/or sswe/pv disruption into Canada.

There had been some hope for this present pattern to produce at least a little something by late Dec, but that’s now doneski.  And at the same the indicators continue to give real hope for that 180 that Frank mentioned yesterday.

And there’s rb who said yes to both of these two weeks ago and that the worse this pattern gets, the better the flip actually could be for us. And so far, his sketch has played out.

So, I just want to know if that’s an accurate synthesis of what’s been discussed here the last few days.

Heehaw summarized it fantastically. Below is a snapshot of the EURO Ensemble mean after Christmas. It continues to advertise this -PNA/-WPO pattern that has been keeping the cold air well off to our west. The -NAO is nice, but it's not strong enough nor oriented in a way that tries to subdue the SE ridge. Instead, we're seeing both ridges lock-in over the eastern CONUS/Canada. The EURO is a bit more aggressive with this ridging than the GEFS, but honestly I think it has the right idea even if it's overdone a bit. We're looking at a pretty crummy pattern all the way into the first few days of January.



That map Mugs posted of the zonal winds in the Stratosphere, which showed a SSWE, now looks like this. It's a drastic change run to run. Whether you're looking up in the Stratosphere or at the MJO plots, these things are changing drastically day to day. That said, you can't underestimate their magnitude and what it means for our sensible weather. Until we truly know what's going on with the tropical pacific waves, it really is anyones guess when the pattern flips. I will say, RB has been on top of it and his timeline is more mid/end of January. It may very well take that long.

Another good gefs run to start January

The models, if not a headfake, are starting to see that the MJO WAVE is on the move as I pointed out here but Rb pointed out before me. I just reiterated it BUT once that Typjoon scattered it then is able to see it. One thing that we know from past La Nina-s is the MJO waves are slow to move and with this as we head into 8 that may just bold well. Let's get there 1st!!

The AO looks to go towards neutral towards NYD. That may not be a bad thing as it may loosen up enough for the deep trough to start movements eastward. Something has to give in order for this to change, so at the very least something changes. Without really moving the western trough in a significant way though the SE ridge will continue to want to poke its head through and warm things up. You will get the start as snow and go to slop scenarios which are going to be small scale events. I am neutral right now on how this plays out.

Frank_Wx wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Correct me if I’m wrong. There’s two concurrent conversations taking place in this thread. One is about the 7-10 long range forecast which looks to be as crappy as the last 7-10 days were due to a continued -pna, + nao, mjo7 and a stout se ridge. The other is about the extended long range forecast which continues to show a potential mid Jan flip to mjo 8, + pna, -nao and/or sswe/pv disruption into Canada.

There had been some hope for this present pattern to produce at least a little something by late Dec, but that’s now doneski.  And at the same the indicators continue to give real hope for that 180 that Frank mentioned yesterday.

And there’s rb who said yes to both of these two weeks ago and that the worse this pattern gets, the better the flip actually could be for us. And so far, his sketch has played out.

So, I just want to know if that’s an accurate synthesis of what’s been discussed here the last few days.

Heehaw summarized it fantastically. Below is a snapshot of the EURO Ensemble mean after Christmas. It continues to advertise this -PNA/-WPO pattern that has been keeping the cold air well off to our west. The -NAO is nice, but it's not strong enough nor oriented in a way that tries to subdue the SE ridge. Instead, we're seeing both ridges lock-in over the eastern CONUS/Canada. The EURO is a bit more aggressive with this ridging than the GEFS, but honestly I think it has the right idea even if it's overdone a bit. We're looking at a pretty crummy pattern all the way into the first few days of January.



That map Mugs posted of the zonal winds in the Stratosphere, which showed a SSWE, now looks like this. It's a drastic change run to run. Whether you're looking up in the Stratosphere or at the MJO plots, these things are changing drastically day to day. That said, you can't underestimate their magnitude and what it means for our sensible weather. Until we truly know what's going on with the tropical pacific waves, it really is anyones guess when the pattern flips. I will say, RB has been on top of it and his timeline is more mid/end of January. It may very well take that long.

Thanks very much for your response Frank- those follow up maps/charts really make your points easy to follow. HeeHaw Mugs and Sroc etc also thanks for all the info and feedback.

Tjis zonal winds over the Indian Ocean show what would be a moderate to strong Rosby Wave burst in phase 1 and then 2 for almost all of January into early Feb. Let's see what affects this will have on our pattern upstream from this.
Usually means a colder and stories look east of the Rockies. This is good news again despite some other news on the PV and West Coast deep Negative trough that is messing up our N NAO!!

amugs wrote:Tjis zonal winds over the Indian Ocean show what would be a moderate to strong Rosby Wave burst in phase 1 and then 2 for almost all of January into early Feb. Let's see what affects this will have on our pattern upstream from this.
Usually means a colder and stories look east of the Rockies. This is good news again despite some other news on the PV and West Coast deep Negative trough that is messing up our N NAO!!

Wouldn't the forecast for the MJO be responding to this, it sure doesn't look like it. Even if this comes about , I think it takes more than a moderate wave to overcome the persistent easterlies at the dateline, to give the MJO momentum for reaching the promised land

Wheezer wrote:

amugs wrote:Tjis zonal winds over the Indian Ocean show what would be a moderate to strong Rosby Wave burst in phase 1 and then 2 for almost all of January into early Feb. Let's see what affects this will have on our pattern upstream from this.
Usually means a colder and stories look east of the Rockies. This is good news again despite some other news on the PV and West Coast deep Negative trough that is messing up our N NAO!!

Wouldn't  the forecast for the MJO be responding to this, it sure doesn't look like it.  Even if this comes about , I think it takes more than a moderate wave to overcome the persistent easterlies at the dateline,  to give the MJO momentum for reaching the promised land

Agree with this…it’s possible the MJO is having a hard time picking up on this wave. Naturally, I would expect a progression eastward. The issue is La Niña easterlies are very strong and are threatening this progression. Probably the number one risk to our overall pattern right now.

Judging by satellite, I'm not even convinced MJO is firmly in 7. The wheel has been very generous in positioning the wave in 7 the past week at least. The wave is drowning on the invisible border of 6/7.

I trust in the far more talented and experienced folks on the board like rb but it is not looking great thus far.

Is there still enthusiasm for a significantly positive change in the pattern for snow lovers, or is that off the table now?