Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013. I ended with just under 30".

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

That storm was insane, forget what I got I know it was somewhat of a let down I was in that second shade of purple, my parents got the death band with 40 inches in CT!! I think that was a record for the area. They said they had never seen it snow so long and so hard. Snow drifted up fiurst gloor windows. It is okay to be selfish, if I can get 6-12 out of this I would be happy, I also won't be entirely surprised if it doesn't work out but heres hoping!

Edit: I actually did pretty well, I think I got like 12-15, and I remember the winds were insane so I got both my weather obsessions : ) I would be fine with a Nemo again even if you bank. I consider 6+ a bank for these parts.

Here’s to Hoping Jon

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 F63fb210

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:58 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal
Still not buying the apps runner since in recent years it’s been a rare and anomalous track. My goalposts have shrunk with this storm. I’m thinking anywhere from an inside the BM to a NYC track.

In between would be better than a NYC runner, that would suck. I dunno I have a tingling that as we close in on the 3 day we are go see some SR craziness. The fact that a OTS is off table is great, the fact that a apps runner is not is not great. But lets hope we can get that off the table too, as scott said baby steps.

Love this movie, loved it before I became a therapist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl6s6DGapug

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013. I ended with just under 30".

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

That storm was insane, forget what I got I know it was somewhat of a let down I was in that second shade of purple, my parents got the death band with 40 inches in CT!! I think that was a record for the area. They said they had never seen it snow so long and so hard. Snow drifted up fiurst gloor windows. It is okay to be selfish, if I can get 6-12 out of this I would be happy, I also won't be entirely surprised if it doesn't work out but heres hoping!

Edit: I actually did pretty well, I think I got like 12-15, and I remember the winds were insane so I got both my weather obsessions : ) I would be fine with a Nemo again even if you bank. I consider 6+ a bank for these parts.

Here’s to Hoping Jon

I remember that pic!! So cute.

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:00 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I think the southern slider scenario can be eliminated. We’re down to three…apps runner, coastal hugger or coastal

For me, and I am going to be a little selfish just for a moment here if I may, I would like the perfect scenario to be a massive front end thump for all, and just as the warm air begins to get close it Miller B's to just at or SE of the BM setting up the CCB right over my house, just like Nemo in Feb 2013. I ended with just under 30".

https://weather.com/storms/winter/nemo/news/winter-storm-nemo-reports-20130208

That storm was insane, forget what I got I know it was somewhat of a let down I was in that second shade of purple, my parents got the death band with 40 inches in CT!! I think that was a record for the area. They said they had never seen it snow so long and so hard. Snow drifted up fiurst gloor windows. It is okay to be selfish, if I can get 6-12 out of this I would be happy, I also won't be entirely surprised if it doesn't work out but heres hoping!

Edit: I actually did pretty well, I think I got like 12-15, and I remember the winds were insane so I got both my weather obsessions : ) I would be fine with a Nemo again even if you bank. I consider 6+ a bank for these parts.

Here’s to Hoping Jon

Ohh i remember that storm as per the "St. James" measurement which is the one i submitted. Started off as snow, about a coating, then heavy rain for most of the day until about 2pm it switched back to snow and the rest was history

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:11 pm

12Z Canadian brings the ULL over Pittsburgh. Hope maybe a dangerous thing with this one...

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:16 pm

Is there any chance this will be another Juno?

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:30 pm

12Z Euro has an extremely good front end thump for NW I95. I believe that will the be case this. Based on what I can see it's the interaction with that trailing TPV s/w that makes the ULL go more northerly. Literally if that slows down by several hours then it's a really really different ball game.

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Eurosn27

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:33 pm

GEM and EURO made major strides in the right direction IMO. Not necessarily at the surface, but aloft. They both shifted toward a much earlier interaction between our storm and the secondary energy diving in on the back side. This is something that Frank and I have been discussing since yesterday. Now, the key is, the synoptic pattern SUPPORTS the coalescence of these energies at a lower latitude basis the same logic that I presented in my initial discussion.

I still like January 2016 as a relative example here. I think the bleeding has stopped with the westward trends, and it’s wagons southeastward from here, as it would fit the synoptic and hemispheric forcings.

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:38 pm

heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro has an extremely good front end thump for NW I95. I believe that will the be case this. Based on what I can see it's the interaction with that trailing TPV s/w that makes the ULL go more northerly. Literally if that slows down by several hours then it's a really really different ball game.

Give me the phase earlier, and that’s where we are headed IMO. If you phase these pieces over Missouri instead of Kentucky, then you can force a pseudo cyclonic wave break over the top. This would sever the connection to the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay and allow heights to build over the top, thereby capping the northward progression of the storm and forcing it out beneath the enhanced ridging over the top instead of phasing again with the main lobe of the TPV and lifting the whole trough northward.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:39 pm

rb924119 wrote:GEM and EURO made major strides in the right direction IMO. Not necessarily at the surface, but aloft. They both shifted toward a much earlier interaction between our storm and the secondary energy diving in on the back side. This is something that Frank and I have been discussing since yesterday. Now, the key is, the synoptic pattern SUPPORTS the coalescence of these energies at a lower latitude basis the same logic that I presented in my initial discussion.

I still like January 2016 as a relative example here. I think the bleeding has stopped with the westward trends, and it’s wagons southeastward from here, as it would fit the synoptic and hemispheric forcings.

Rb you are thinking that earlier interaction is better? What i tended to see as that interaction started to occur the ULL moved more northerly instead of NE towards BM. Right at this point the trough starts to tilt back and sharpen and bring the ULL more northerly. How does making this occur earlier bring this east? Just trying to gain perspective on this.

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Euroin10

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro has an extremely good front end thump for NW I95. I believe that will the be case this. Based on what I can see it's the interaction with that trailing TPV s/w that makes the ULL go more northerly. Literally if that slows down by several hours then it's a really really different ball game.

Give me the phase earlier, and that’s where we are headed IMO. If you phase these pieces over Missouri instead of Kentucky, then you can force a pseudo cyclonic wave break over the top. This would sever the connection to the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay and allow heights to build over the top, thereby capping the northward progression of the storm and forcing it out beneath the enhanced ridging over the top instead of phasing again with the main lobe of the TPV and lifting the whole trough northward.

Thanks Rb!

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:43 pm

Actually, let me correct myself, not just Missouri. I meant Missouri/Arkansas, preferably Arkansa haha

by **rb924119** Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:48 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro has an extremely good front end thump for NW I95. I believe that will the be case this. Based on what I can see it's the interaction with that trailing TPV s/w that makes the ULL go more northerly. Literally if that slows down by several hours then it's a really really different ball game.

Give me the phase earlier, and that’s where we are headed IMO. If you phase these pieces over Missouri instead of Kentucky, then you can force a pseudo cyclonic wave break over the top. This would sever the connection to the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay and allow heights to build over the top, thereby capping the northward progression of the storm and forcing it out beneath the enhanced ridging over the top instead of phasing again with the main lobe of the TPV and lifting the whole trough northward.

Thanks Rb!

You’re dead-on in your analysis, and if this depiction of H5 is right, then obviously the above snowfall map will be accurate. I’m trying to diagnose where I believe we are going for the end result. Smile

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro has an extremely good front end thump for NW I95. I believe that will the be case this. Based on what I can see it's the interaction with that trailing TPV s/w that makes the ULL go more northerly. Literally if that slows down by several hours then it's a really really different ball game.

Give me the phase earlier, and that’s where we are headed IMO. If you phase these pieces over Missouri instead of Kentucky, then you can force a pseudo cyclonic wave break over the top. This would sever the connection to the TPV lobe over Hudson Bay and allow heights to build over the top, thereby capping the northward progression of the storm and forcing it out beneath the enhanced ridging over the top instead of phasing again with the main lobe of the TPV and lifting the whole trough northward.

Thanks Rb!

You’re dead-on in your analysis, and if this depiction of H5 is right, then obviously the above snowfall map will be accurate. I’m trying to diagnose where I believe we are going for the end result.

Drop that sharp cutoff to the south 50-100 miles at least plz if possible lol

by **amugs** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:32 pm

The depiction by the Euro ENS Mean is good at this point
Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 FI7LlCYWUAIpLy9?format=jpg&name=large

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 FI7LlCYWUAIpLy9?format=jpg&name=large

by **amugs** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:36 pm

amugs wrote:The depiction by the Euro ENS Mean is good at this point. Need that NS to speed up a few hours and catch this earlier as pointed out. Also, the storm is not coming onshore until Friday so lots of time

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:37 pm

Rb are you on to something or just kinda playin' around? The EPS has two distinct camps, but both seem to shove the ULL further south. This location is much much better.

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Eps30

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Epsull10

by **algae888** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:39 pm

I'm a little confused we want the northern stream to speed up and phase sooner? Wouldn't that cause a more northern and western track? I would think we would want a later phase or miss the phase completely so the system moves more northeasterly from the carolinas instead of due North from there

by **amugs** Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:56 pm

GEFS and Euro same camp in the mean

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2420800.png.dc1844f5b8dbb1323949cccfa6e70fee

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-2420800.png.dc1844f5b8dbb1323949cccfa6e70fee

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:01 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS and Euro same camp in the mean

Yes very close ULL in the GEFS is further NW by about 50 miles or so which can have tremendous differences. But too early for that fine grained analysis.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:03 pm

LoL this is the southern slider.

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Navgem10

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:12 pm

amugs wrote:GEFS and Euro same camp in the mean

Well I can say one thing, if this is all snow if it can be a bit more offshore it sure is juiced, thats a lot of heavy precip!!

by **phil155** Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GEFS and Euro same camp in the mean

Well I can say one thing, if this is all snow if it can be a bit more offshore it sure is juiced, thats a lot of heavy precip!!

Agreed 100%, if that is all snow it would be a big snow maker

by Lnda23 Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:46 pm

Feels like this one might turn out to be memorable. Just a feeling!

by **mikeypizano** Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:08 pm

Lnda23 wrote:Feels like this one might turn out to be memorable. Just a feeling!

Or, a complete and utter failure...

by **Irish** Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:07 pm

After a frigid Saturday, it looks like this event, for my area, might be turning into a front end 1-3 snow affair, before throwing down all rain late Sunday into Monday.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 12, 2022 5:19 pm

The 18Z GFS was a better run. Much colder run. If you look at these snow accumulations it's really a matter of a few hours of difference in the interaction with the TPV s/w and the main ULL. I think this is still volatile and this snow map may look dramatically different by Friday night. Rb anything encouraging here?

Winter - Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 7 Gfs49

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