Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

nutleyblizzard wrote:UKIE and JMA way west!

JMA was sweet.

CMC coming in on better maps, and easy to see why it is west of 12z

Artechmetals wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Hey Frank do we have a better chance at a foot of snow out of this system area wide or Mario Balotelli scoring a goal for Italy in the World Cup playoff in march

Definitely a Balo gooooalasooo

If CMC closed H5 3-6 hours earlier it’s a Godzilla for many many more 

UKIE, which has been out to sea for days, now shows this. MADONNE!!!!!

Frank_Wx wrote:If CMC closed H5 3-6 hours earlier it’s a Godzilla for many many more 

Yeah. Whatever is occurring is not done. There will be more corrections. I think part 1 is phase which models are starting to latch on now, part two is what happens to the mid-level/surface storm as it consolidates. Does is capture with ULL, does ULL close off earlier. Plenty of drama left.

Frank_Wx wrote:If CMC closed H5 3-6 hours earlier it’s a Godzilla for many many more 

Very dumb question that is now relevant given all the discussion - what does it mean for a ULL to "close"?

Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE, which has been out to sea for days, now shows this. MADONNE!!!!!

Miller A storm all the way up the coast here.

Zhukov1945 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:If CMC closed H5 3-6 hours earlier it’s a Godzilla for many many more 

Very dumb question that is now relevant given all the discussion - what does it mean for a ULL to "close"?

Look at the contours. When they form a circle in the center (like this does south east of NYC) it’s considered to be a closed low. Meaning, it’s no longer an open wave in the overall flow of the atmosphere. Air is now moving in circles around this low, thus promoting rapid intensification of our main low pressure and dictating its eventual track.

Great comeback on the 0Zs tonight. F the GFS and NAM. If we get a good EURO run we are really back in play. Unbelievable back and forth with this.

Euro slightly east of last run. Not what we wanted but not horrible either. LI and east still do okay north and west not so much. It could have been a very good night if Euro came west but of course not in the cards as this setup continues to confuse and waiver.

Weird night again but overall positive. Still unsure what to think.  Definitely north and west back in play for a decent hit and city on east for a major hit. Of course we still have the GFS basically giving everyone the shaft. My head is spinning. Need sleep but it ain’t happening.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Euro slightly east of last run. Not what we wanted but not horrible either. LI and east still do okay north and west not so much.  It could have been a very good night if Euro came west but of course not in the cards as this setup continues to confuse and waiver.

Weird night again but overall positive. Still unsure what to think.  Definitely north and west back in play for a decent hit and city on east for a major hit. Of course we still have the GFS basically giving everyone the shaft. My head is spinning. Need sleep but it ain’t happening.

Disappointing run for us N and W guys after the west trend from most other models. 4th straight run the Euro has decreased my qpf. Any more and I will be sucking virga which is still a possibility I suppose. Lets hope for continued westward shift tomorrow.

My favorite kind of alarm clock to wake up to

Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
340 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

Winter Storm Watch.

There is potential for a low pressure storm system to bring 6-12" of heavy snowfall and high winds to the area Friday night into Saturday night. Minor to locally moderate coastal impacts are also possible for eastern portions of Long Island and vulnerable north facing coastal communities along Long Island Sound and the Great South Bay for the Saturday into Sunday high tides.

Another great run by the 12k NAM!! Still crushing the Island on the 6z!

Yup 06z. Nam was a decent shift NW. There will be more correcting and then we settle on a spot I think. WSW up 6 to 12 wing gusts up to 45 mph. Just to the east is 11 to 17 with gusts to 60moh so this won't take much of a shift NW again to bring the goods to NW folks. I believe 06z nam gives them some snow now.

Well, after a very expected day of eastward motion and diminished totals, I was lucky enough to wake up on the bright side of the short term forecast. TWC had dropped Coastal Ocean County from 3-5"/5-8" (Fri Night/Sat Morn) all the way down to 1-3"/1-3". Well, we are now back up to 3-5"/3-5" for 6-10" altogether and NWS calling for 3-5"/5-9" for 8-14" altogether. Hopefully, we get that subtle but meaningful shift NW in the last 36-48 hrs...

Still so much work for the coast to do here, but it's Thursday morning...and the hunt continues!    

6z NAM and RGEM both come in more west, which is great to see after the huge shift west at 0z

RGEM, ratios do look better than 10:1 for this storm too, so this is 12"+ for many this run

Gfs looking better

S/w energy looks better more east and trough deeper

Baby Steps

Nice improvements on the 6z GFS as well with the s/w energy and phasing, though still remains east of everything else. The improvements at 500mb is really all you need to see from the GFS as it probably won't catch on until he end lol

Sanchize06 wrote:Nice improvements on the 6z GFS as well with the s/w energy and phasing, though still remains east of everything else. The improvements at 500mb is really all you need to see from the GFS as it probably won't catch on until he end lol

Agree the Gfs closes off later than other guidance. 3 hours sooner would be great. But got ylto admit the trends are good