Monitoring February 4th

JT33 wrote:Why is the GFS so persistent in showing this system dropping down between 06Z & 12Z on Friday?  The NAM and others have it acting like a straight slider (using a baseball analogy), staying outside (of NJ - the Strike Zone) and tailing off into New England.  The GFS, meanwhile, has the system acting like a late-breaking curveball.  It seems to have been this way for at least 24 hours of runs and I'm not sure why.  Any thoughts?

JT it is the strength and placement of the HP in SE Canada - or as we say the press by the HP or TPV = tropospheric polar vortex. As I showed last night from an accupro map a 1040's HP over this region is strong and you need a strong Low Pressure system to ram into this and bully its way more N. The arctic air is very dense, we are in height of winter, as Frank pointed out we have a huge snowpack over head in NE and the temps in Canada are in the -20'. Rb maybe onto a SE trend and if we can keep this going it will be more snow than ice for NNJ region but worse for CNJ.
I keep harping on the 1994 rain to ice to snow storms that hit us back then.

GFS is CP's most favorite R&R Singer of All Time.....Tom Petty and saying "Won't Back Down" - my motto as well!!!

Here is your overview of cold that will plunge once again into the Continual US

DEEP ARCTIC PLUNGE...
This is a big reason for the amount of ice we will see from #Dallas to #Louisville to #Hartford next 3 days! pic.twitter.com/kCb6pCyqPF

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) February 2, 2022

Thanks Frank.

GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

NWS.  I think generally <= 1/4" on the ice, but this is too light IMO especially NEPA/NW NJ.

Upton's first stab at Friday's ice accretion:

heehaw453 wrote:NWS.  I think generally <= 1/4" on the ice, but this is too light IMO especially NEPA/NW NJ.

Here is Upton's take on ice and back end snow as well.  Seems reasonable to me.  

SoulSingMG wrote:Upton's first stab at Friday's ice accretion:

This is a good call at this juncture, and if models trend icier they can adjust tomorrow.

Soul I missed that you posted Uptons ice already

MattyICE wrote:GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

Agree with this. Some models show temps reaching 50 degrees Thursday night. It’s going to be awfully tough to cool the columns down while there’s still precip left to fall

Here’s the Canadian products at 12z ice amounts

The 12z WRF and WRF2 both have a 1044 High with the Low staying south of our area. The change over to ice happens much quicker and further south. The FV3 is also icier and south.

MattyICE wrote:GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

Your last sentence says it all. You can get very surprised by low level cold push with strong H oozing down. Seen that song before where it's under modeled just how strong the push is. Mid-levels will be tougher to move out, but not surface. 1/4" can go all the way down to EPA IMO with no problem.

Was hoping for all snow here but now starting to get worried here in Ulster for that dreaded Ice word. Still think some snow and sleet falls but the amount of ice that might fall here has my attention.

This sounding will be an issue for NNJ. 26/27* IF GFS and NAMs split the temps you have 25* and that is bigger problem.




Point - we have seen arctic HP that have taken temps from 50* and sun in the afternoon/late evening to 29* and a snowstorm. Once you get below 30* it becomes a situation for ice accretion to gain traction (no pun). 25* IF it happens is a different animal - possibilities.

NYC not a major ice event yes but NNJ is going to be slip sliding away.
Do not forget Wednesday January 5th what happened. Pre-melt treatment is worthless with rain to ice since it will get washed away. Salt crews need to salt and retreat and retreat again to keep roads from freezing up.

Time will tell but one thing is for sure - that HP is a beast and after the storm we may have a semi-flash freeze as the precip winds down on the backside.

12Z EURO has little to no ice now.

Rb thoughts??

[quote="jimv45"]Was hoping for all snow here but now starting to get worried here in Ulster for that dreaded Ice word. Still think some snow and sleet falls but the amount of ice that might fall here has my attention.
[/quote

Jim, you are going to see some ZR and lots of sleet I think, then turning to snow midday Friday. NWS Albany has me getting .20 of ZR, 1-2 inches of sleet then some light snow.

Yep Hyde I hoping for more sleet and snow then ZR, still think there is a good chance that happens.

gonna get the snowblower out for this one

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this one

Better be a big one!

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this one

More likely the leaf blower.

mikeypizano wrote:

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this one

Better be a big one!

It's been pretty rough w.r.t. snowfall this winter Lehigh Valley, Poconos, right up to Scranton. Hopefully something breaks sooner than later.

docstox12 wrote:

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this one

More likely the leaf blower.

Yeah almost comical map. Just say < 1" and call it a day.

hyde345 wrote:

now that's a snow map

I never really believed those ice maps in and just outside of NYC, gonna head to the family in CT and stay till Saturday just in case Friday does indeed become icy dicey. Looks nice for up north for snow. CP you are so close to 4-6.

RJB8525 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

now that's a snow map

my sis in syracuse looks to do nicely, my niece and nephew will be having fun.

Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Boy I hope not frank, but it sure is looking that way! If the EURO and GFS are right that will be a major problem for some!