NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Monitoring February 4th

+37
mmanisca
dkodgis
DAYBLAZER
Radz
crippo84
brownie
Math23x7
Grselig
essexcountypete
2004blackwrx
weatherwatchermom
RJB8525
freezerburn
sroc4
JT33
SNOW MAN
Dunnzoo
hyde345
jimv45
CPcantmeasuresnow
SENJsnowman
SoulSingMG
billg315
richb521
docstox12
aiannone
jmanley32
frank 638
TheAresian
MattyICE
mikeypizano
heehaw453
amugs
phil155
lglickman1
rb924119
Frank_Wx
41 posters

Page 6 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by SNOW MAN Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:59 am

Thanks Frank.
SNOW MAN
SNOW MAN
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1358
Reputation : 25
Join date : 2013-01-13
Age : 63
Location : Marshalls Creek Pa.

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by MattyICE Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:02 pm

GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

MattyICE
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 137
Reputation : 6
Join date : 2017-11-10
Age : 37
Location : Clifton, NJ (Eastern Passaic County)

phil155 and JT33 like this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:17 pm

NWS.  I think generally <= 1/4" on the ice, but this is too light IMO especially NEPA/NW NJ.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Ice12

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:23 pm

Upton's first stab at Friday's ice accretion:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2843
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:35 pm

heehaw453 wrote:NWS.  I think generally <= 1/4" on the ice, but this is too light IMO especially NEPA/NW NJ.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Ice12

Here is Upton's take on ice and back end snow as well.  Seems reasonable to me.  

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 StormTotalIceWeb

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 StormTotalSnowWeb


Last edited by sroc4 on Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:35 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Upton's first stab at Friday's ice accretion:

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10

This is a good call at this juncture, and if models trend icier they can adjust tomorrow.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

SoulSingMG and JT33 like this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:37 pm

Soul I missed that you posted Uptons ice already

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 7463
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

SoulSingMG likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:41 pm

MattyICE wrote:GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

Agree with this. Some models show temps reaching 50 degrees Thursday night. It’s going to be awfully tough to cool the columns down while there’s still precip left to fall

Here’s the Canadian products at 12z ice amounts

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Fcee2a10
Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 21f01f10

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

MattyICE likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by freezerburn Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:46 pm

The 12z WRF and WRF2 both have a 1044 High with the Low staying south of our area. The change over to ice happens much quicker and further south. The FV3 is also icier and south.

freezerburn

Posts : 16
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2014-01-01
Location : Toms River

amugs likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:56 pm

MattyICE wrote:GFS really continues to be an outlier here and most other guidance has shifted away from a widespread icing issue for the majority of the board, IMO. Usual caveats apply - keep an eye on additional trends, better to be safe than sorry, etc…I would potentially believe the GFS more if all that cold air (all valid points by mugs, RB) was actually ENTRENCHED and trying hard not to budge - but that’s not the case here at all. It’s rather the opposite - the cold air is rushing in to scour out relatively mild air. It’s doing it in a pretty progressive pattern and it’s we have to rely on limited precipitation being left AFTER the front passes. I do think most places can see a brief flip to frozen precipitation but much later in the day than the GFS shows and with minimal impacts for most SE of 287. NONE of this is to say that we should let our guards down!

Your last sentence says it all. You can get very surprised by low level cold push with strong H oozing down. Seen that song before where it's under modeled just how strong the push is. Mid-levels will be tougher to move out, but not surface. 1/4" can go all the way down to EPA IMO with no problem.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pm

Was hoping for all snow here but now starting to get worried here in Ulster for that dreaded Ice word. Still think some snow and sleet falls but the amount of ice that might fall here has my attention.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1163
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by amugs Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:24 pm

This sounding will be an issue for NNJ. 26/27* IF GFS and NAMs split the temps you have 25* and that is bigger problem.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 3k_nam10


Point - we have seen arctic HP that have taken temps from 50* and sun in the afternoon/late evening to 29* and a snowstorm. Once you get below 30* it becomes a situation for ice accretion to gain traction (no pun). 25* IF it happens is a different animal - possibilities.

NYC not a major ice event yes but NNJ is going to be slip sliding away.
Do not forget Wednesday January 5th what happened. Pre-melt treatment is worthless with rain to ice since it will get washed away. Salt crews need to salt and retreat and retreat again to keep roads from freezing up.

Time will tell but one thing is for sure - that HP is a beast and after the storm we may have a semi-flash freeze as the precip winds down on the backside.

12Z EURO has little to no ice now.

Rb thoughts??

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 13773
Reputation : 212
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 52
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:34 pm

[quote="jimv45"]Was hoping for all snow here but now starting to get worried here in Ulster for that dreaded Ice word. Still think some snow and sleet falls but the amount of ice that might fall here has my attention.
[/quote

Jim, you are going to see some ZR and lots of sleet I think, then turning to snow midday Friday. NWS Albany has me getting .20 of ZR, 1-2 inches of sleet then some light snow.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:38 pm

Yep Hyde I hoping for more sleet and snow then ZR, still think there is a good chance that happens.

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1163
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:50 pm

gonna get the snowblower out for this oneMonitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1993
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 36
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by mikeypizano Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:00 pm

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this oneMonitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10

Better be a big one!
mikeypizano
mikeypizano
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1088
Reputation : 66
Join date : 2017-01-05
Age : 33
Location : Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA

RJB8525 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by docstox12 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:30 pm

RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this oneMonitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10

More likely the leaf blower.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7615
Reputation : 220
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 71
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:30 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this oneMonitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10

Better be a big one!

It's been pretty rough w.r.t. snowfall this winter Lehigh Valley, Poconos, right up to Scranton. Hopefully something breaks sooner than later.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:31 pm

docstox12 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:gonna get the snowblower out for this oneMonitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt10

More likely the leaf blower.

Yeah almost comical map. Just say < 1" and call it a day.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 2537
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by hyde345 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:34 pm

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt11
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1011
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

RJB8525 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:44 pm

hyde345 wrote:Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt11

now that's a snow map
RJB8525
RJB8525
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1993
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 36
Location : Hackettstown, NJ

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:45 pm

I never really believed those ice maps in and just outside of NYC, gonna head to the family in CT and stay till Saturday just in case Friday does indeed become icy dicey. Looks nice for up north for snow. CP you are so close to 4-6.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:48 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
hyde345 wrote:Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Stormt11

now that's a snow map
my sis in syracuse looks to do nicely, my niece and nephew will be having fun.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 19096
Reputation : 107
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 41
Location : Yonkers, NY

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:59 pm

Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 4991-D721-5484-4-D01-845-B-DA2207-E303-D8-thumb-png-b6eaa6cdf8d668c618e2635f7b108ffc

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20727
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by jimv45 Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:07 pm

Boy I hope not frank, but it sure is looking that way! If the EURO and GFS are right that will be a major problem for some!

jimv45
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1163
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Monitoring February 4th - Page 6 Empty Re: Monitoring February 4th

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 6 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 5, 6, 7 ... 11, 12, 13  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum