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Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 28, 2022 12:52 pm

Please post your thoughts/grades on the December, January and February winter months.  Would love to hear people's perspectives.

I will title this winter as what could have been.  The misalignment of the z500 patterns prevented this winter from being much AN snowfall/BN temperatures end to end.

Starting with December we had very good Atlantic support which prevented Christmas week from being in the 50's to possibly 60's by mitigating the SE ridge.  The anomalous -RNA more commonly known as PNA prevented storm amplification as well as halted the progression of colder air from moving to the east coast.  As a result AN temps due to the SE ridge and very little if any snowfall for most of the forum.  Even a neutral PNA would have changed this month to very good.
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter 500mbd11
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter Tempan15

January was the best month around these parts with eastern zones doing the best wrt snowfall.  The east based blocking was a bit too far east for the interior/I-95 to get flush hits. The NAM was not hostile but more towards neutral.  Good PNA support which allowed for several storms to significantly amplify to the west and just as importantly keep the cold flowing eastward. As a result AN snowfall was recorded in interior/I-95 instead of epic amounts.  Some eastern zones did record historic snowfall totals, e.g., AC recording 33" exceeding the previous record by 12".
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter 500mbj10
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter Tempan13

February was a large disappointment across the board.  Several storms were able to track to our west and/or get too close to the area to prevent prolific snowfall amounts across the area. The hostility of the NAM was paramount in allowing the SE ridge to flexing its muscle and wasting the very nice -EPO. The net result was much BN snowfall across the board with slightly AN temperatures.
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter 500mbf10
Retro/Grading of 2021-22 meteorological winter Tempan14

I have said before and will continue to believe that from Washington, Philly, to NYC and their surrounding NW suburbs as the NAM goes is as the winter goes. I am not dismissing the importance of the PAC and too much hostility there is no bueno too as December demonstrated. It's just that this area is sensitive to the SE ridge but just as important sensitive to a progressive Atlantic flow.  Nothing demonstrated this better than January which was a hair away from epic and also February seeing the -EPO wasted due to a hostile NAM state allowing for a robust SE ridge.

Overall IMBY this meteorological winter gets a D+.  

December F
January A-
February D

I'll keep an eye to the weather, but my interest for March is very low due to hostile PNA that will cause a marginal air mass in the eastern US until for what I believe it just a bit too late unless you are in well upstate NY, CNE, NNE.  

Next winter will be experienced from Syracuse where I'm sure my fortunes will be better!

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 28, 2022 5:55 pm

Excellent description and data from Heehaw.
My simple grading SO FAR (will revisit this at the end of March):
There was no white Christmas and very little snow in December.January was cold with some snow and there was an extended snowpack up here.February was very disappointing.
So far, D.Snow way below average here.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:02 pm

Great write up Hee Haw.
Dec D-
Jan A
Feb C-
So far

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Mar 02, 2022 2:13 pm

Well, given how I'm kind of like a squeaky wheel around here, it would be kind of rude almost if I didn't chime in and give my thoughts about the winter.  I feel the pain, man let me tell you that I feel the pain, of all you sitting on some poopy snowfall totals for the season. Better times ahead!!! Grade wise, obviously month to month, I see it nearly the same way as heehaw and mugs except of course we had the ENERO GLORIOSO de la COSTA down here at the coast.

December: C.  I never usually expect much or get much in December.

January A+. Really an A++. 3 local storms, one of which was quite 'historic' as my personal biggest snowfall yet. Maybe it's tied with Jan 4, 18 or Jan 23, 16, which were both in the 17-18" range. I measured 20" for this one, but history might gradually erode that self-proclaimed total down to 18-19" in my recorded annals, not sure yet. The 2 other early Jan storms totaled 10" and then I caught a real nice surprise storm down in NC as I was passing through for the night. Another 4". Monthly (and basically seasonal) total of 32-34"...my word that's nearly 3 feet in one month!!!  We totaled less than 2 feet for the past 3 winter combined before this!!!

Feb/Mar: C-. Obviously Feb disappointed down here, too, but at the least the coast, I'd say we were all pretty well at peace with that to be honest. March seems very unlikely to add to the totals at all, so I'll lump that in with Feb and come back to clean it up if I'm wrong. I don't know if I even want to be wrong about March tbh...

Overall, my grade for Winter 2022 has to be an A on the basis of January as a whole and specifically for the end of the month blizzard.

RB, heehaw- legendary performances by both of you this winter. And the way you two naturally split the long range/mid-to-short range focus worked hand in hand perfectly all winter, imo.

And I'll close by saying once again, but just as sincerely as ever, thank you to heehaw, RB, mugs, frank, sroc and all the other incredible meteorological contributors for taking the time to share your actual knowledge and also the fruits of your knowledge.
You literally cannot calculate the amount of hours of happiness, fun, fascination, learning, therapuetic leisure etc... that I get from it. Especially this January  cheers . Thank you!

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Post by frank 638 Wed Mar 02, 2022 4:59 pm

For me i would grade this winter a big fat f
Dec was horrible very mild and whatever happened to a cold Christmas
January was ok only got 2 small storms
Feb 🥱
Now we are into March and Monday so post to be in the mid 60 just 😞😞😢

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Post by hyde345 Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:04 pm

Incomplete. I consider March a winter month. Early March is actually more wintry than early December around here and with 2 snow possibilities in the next week I will wait and see.
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Post by algae888 Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:38 pm

Right now I would grade this Winter a D.  If we can get a couple of events this week maybe 1 more late March early April could bring it up to a C but that's the best it could do in my opinion.  It was a very overrated pattern a decent Pacific at times but a very poor Atlantic.  Strong South East Ridge and very fast flow off the Pacific didn't help. we had plenty of cold air to work with which makes it more intolerable. Most poor snowfall years did not have the cold or was very dry that was opposite this year. the 500 millibar pattern for the most part was unfavorable.  The area from Delaware through coastal New Jersey Suffolk County Eastern Connecticut Rhode Island and Southeast mass probably had a B or B plus Winter
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