Tropics

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:18z GFS back to its old ways??? Crazy scenario.

These two systems have been pretty consistent on developing.  The system clesest to the EC is the 70% chance the NHC has right now. That one has me interested for a EC threat around 7-14th time frame anywhere from FL north, no way to speculate though 18z did a pretty nutty loop back to carolinas then up EC with a deluge that we do not need, we need a soft steady rain for about 15 days lol.

The one that comes out of the Caribbean; into the GOM was only modled on the GFS. Unfort the GFS has been and usually is clueless regarding tropics, relative to the euro at least.  There has been significant shear forecast on the euro which inhibited it from developing.  GFS had much weaker shear; hence the development.  The Euro clearly won out on that one.  Its leading the way on the other one as well.

I agree with Billg315; if we can't get rain, and the tropics can produce a storm up this way so it rains alot, we need it.

We surely don't want flooding like Ida, but I think it could take an all-day tropical moisture-infused rainstorm to start breaking the back of these drought conditions.

Going to have to wait awhile longer it appears if one is hoping for a tropical system to approach the area.  


The red area was an area to keep a general eye on but its quickly becoming an Atlantic ocean concern only.  GFS once again is developing this area much faster and much stronger; whereas, the euro keeps it much weaker for longer.  In fact the euro now barely gets it beyond a Trop depression or weak trop storm at worst before it recurves well OTS.  The Euro leads the way on this one IMO yet again.  Two main things to look at.  

First: Wind shear environment. Euro forecasts indicate stronger vertical wind shear in the mid levels out ahead, inhibiting rapid development.  

Second: Dry air infiltration.  You can see that by the time the wave reaches the Longitude of about the Lesser Antilles, which is about 3.5days from now (+/-) the GFS is much more saturated; therefore, developed vs the euro which has the dry air environment wrapping into the circulation which ultimately inhibits its development.  




We shall see what happens with this area over the next 2-4days but up through now the Euro has def had a much better handle on both the observed shear environment and the mid level relative humidity. The result has been a better short range forecast to the development, or lack thereof, of these last few waves traversing the ITCZ.

sroc4 wrote:Going to have to wait awhile longer it appears if one is hoping for a tropical system to approach the area.  


The red area was an area to keep a general eye on but its quickly becoming an Atlantic ocean concern only.  GFS once again is developing this area much faster and much stronger; whereas, the euro keeps it much weaker for longer.  In fact the euro now barely gets it beyond a Trop depression or weak trop storm at worst before it recurves well OTS.  The Euro leads the way on this one IMO yet again.  Two main things to look at.  

First: Wind shear environment. Euro forecasts indicate stronger vertical wind shear in the mid levels out ahead, inhibiting rapid development.  

Second: Dry air infiltration.  You can see that by the time the wave reaches the Longitude of about the Lesser Antilles, which is about 3.5days from now (+/-) the GFS is much more saturated; therefore, developed vs the euro which has the dry air environment wrapping into the circulation which ultimately inhibits its development.  




We shall see what happens with this area over the next 2-4days but up through now the Euro has def had a much better handle on both the observed shear environment and the mid level relative humidity. The result has been a better short range forecast to the development, or lack thereof, of these last few waves traversing the ITCZ.

not hoping for anything other than a little rain...lol it is a boring hot summer..so heres to hoping we have a busy cold winter!! thanks for the update!

weatherwatchermom wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Going to have to wait awhile longer it appears if one is hoping for a tropical system to approach the area.  


The red area was an area to keep a general eye on but its quickly becoming an Atlantic ocean concern only.  GFS once again is developing this area much faster and much stronger; whereas, the euro keeps it much weaker for longer.  In fact the euro now barely gets it beyond a Trop depression or weak trop storm at worst before it recurves well OTS.  The Euro leads the way on this one IMO yet again.  Two main things to look at.  

First: Wind shear environment. Euro forecasts indicate stronger vertical wind shear in the mid levels out ahead, inhibiting rapid development.  

Second: Dry air infiltration.  You can see that by the time the wave reaches the Longitude of about the Lesser Antilles, which is about 3.5days from now (+/-) the GFS is much more saturated; therefore, developed vs the euro which has the dry air environment wrapping into the circulation which ultimately inhibits its development.  




We shall see what happens with this area over the next 2-4days but up through now the Euro has def had a much better handle on both the observed shear environment and the mid level relative humidity. The result has been a better short range forecast to the development, or lack thereof, of these last few waves traversing the ITCZ.

not hoping for anything other than a little rain...lol it is a boring hot summer..so hears to hoping we have a busy cold winter!! thanks for the update!

I’m just dying to track something interesting. Frontal passages that fizzle out over my back yard just isn’t cutting it anymore. Lol. Hear is definitely to a cold white winter.

There's signs for a strong suppressed Kelvin wave to pas the Atlantic-Africa during early September, which will destructively interfere with the Climatological Peak in the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This wave will act to suppress convection o/the tropical Atlantic-Africa. https://t.co/J5QnEFnFsG pic.twitter.com/DdD5ETAEZ1

— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 30, 2022

The red area just east of the Lesser Antilles still has me interested.  The GFS conts to develop that area, IMHO, way too fast which results in a recurve.  However, if it remains a weak wave, which I believe it will, as the euro insists on there is a good chance it makes it much further west riding just north of the Greater Antilles.  Whats happens from there is what is causing my ears to perk up a bit.  There will be a trough approaching the EC between day 2-4.  The GFS has a deeper trough that exits the coast and aids in picking up the developed system and recurving it way OTS.   However the Euro leaves a piece behind over the Ohio valley region which develops into an upper level low cutoff from the mean flow.  The result of this is a weaker trough exiting the EC that is further N so it does not have the same influence(doesnt draw it N sooner) on the trop system in question.  Combined with the fact that it is also still a weaker system.  The cutoff ULL aids in enhancing the western Atlantic ridge(WAR) to build back in over the top of the Trop system which further stears our trop wave or weak system further west towards the SE coast.  From there it gets drawn upo the coast and begins the recurve.  These details are still fuzzy so Ill leave it at that.  

Bottom line a fork is in the road over the next 2-4days.  Does this system develop rapidly like the GFS suggest and turn harmlessly OTS or does it remain weaker and the euro suggests, and continues along a WNW-NWward trajectory in which case we will have to start watching it more closely?  If the latter occurs there will still be many forks in the road but it will make it at least a tad more interesting.  

WE TRACK!!!  

Earl is still something to be watched along the EC. There is still a change it misses the connection to the recurve and a hook back to the west is possible. By no means is this imminent but something to monitor. That is all for now.

sroc4 wrote:Earl is still something to be watched along the EC. There is still a change it misses the connection to the recurve and a hook back to the west is possible. By no means is this imminent but something to monitor. That is all for now.

Earl is going to do something very interesting as he looks to get caught under thr HP over Newfoundland and he gets pushed west toward the EC and then rides up into Maine. Very interesting.
JB said Friday don't write him off, he misses the westerlies then its gets interesting.

Eyes on Central Atlantic for development. Sept 16 to 24th timeframe for US issues, hit are what I am reading at this time.

This tropics season has been incredibly uninteresting and may go down in record books. The idea that Earl had any threat to the US I do not think had any leg to stand on and since there was no follow-up on it I presume that to be true. I could see there being nothing or very little to track from now until the season closes. And to make this years predicition we would need about 2 storms a week lol.

Wow, cant be taken verbatim of course but TD 7 may need be watched for EC hit. strong bermuda high pushes him west then due north on that run, scary cat 2ish right into LI. Really long ways out but not all the way out at africa so may have a shot.

amugs wrote:Eyes on Central Atlantic for development. Sept 16 to 24th timeframe for US issues, hit are what I am reading at this time.

probably more like 24th or later with TD7.

We have TS Fiona folks, 50mph TS, could be a interesting one to track. Def going to get closer to the US mainland.

jmanley32 wrote:We have TS Fiona folks, 50mph TS, could be a interesting one to track. Def going to get closer to the US mainland.

I’m desperate to track something too. Lol. While there is nothing wrong with tracking Fiona through the lesser and greater Antilles it won’t get remotely interesting to track regarding the EC until Monday Tuesday at the earliest. Even then it will still be about 1000miles out.

We Track

EURO tracks Fiona. Ions of time for this

Fiona's low level center (LLC) is completely decoupled from its convection due to significant shear.  In the image the yellow circle is where the LLC is and the blue the convection.  Don't expect much intensification today.  In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of weaking.  The 12z GFS backs off the shear in about 36hrs which may allow the convection to recenter over the LLC in which case intensificatioin should occur. Euro is much more intent on strengthening the shear over the next 1-3days so we shall see. Click the link to see it in motion.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=07L&product=vis

And will there be a dip in the jet stream to allow it to head north. Lots of variable will make it interesting to track

dkodgis wrote:And will there be a dip in the jet stream to allow it to head north. Lots of variable will make it interesting to track

There will be a couple of troughs swinging through and off the EC as we go through the next 3-5days.  These will start to weaken the western flank of the WAR (western Atlantic ridge) to Fiona's north a nd beging to shunt the center of it a tad further E.  This is wjhats currently steering her.    A trough headed towards the EC will create  a weakness as we head into the middle of next week.  How strong and deep the trough is, and how strong and how far N or S Fiona is etc will determine when and where exactly she turns north.  

There will most likely be one of two scenarios.  Either Fiona is sitting further N and/or more organized and results in being tugged and recurved harmlessly OTS by the trough that swings through towards the middle to latter half of next week.  OR its further S, and west, and/or weaker and less organized and is initially is tugged N through the weakness created by the same trough, but misses the connection as the trough lifts out.  That would/could result in a ridge building back in over the top of Fiona just off the NE coast of the CONUS, and a turn her back towards the west, towards coast ahead of the next trough could ensue.  That would get things really interesting.  

Of course this somewhat of an over simplification, but these are a few of the major keys to the track evolution.  There are multiple other details that need to be looked at.  ie: two upper level lows and how they influence things.  One that develops to the NE of Fiona over the next several days way out in the central Atlantic, as well as a second, and probably more influential, that is showing up in the modeling over Fla to Fiona's NW over the next several days.   There will be a crossroads over the next 3-5days for sure.  The modeling on the timing of the WAR, the mean Trough, and where and how strong Fiona is will begin to dial in then.  Its still a ways out, but at least its something.  


We Track

Just to liven things up a little, because, why not? Lol

Tonight’s 18z GFS Op at 384:



Loading pattern for Sandy:



Paging Jman lmaooooo

^ What could POSSIBLY go wrong?

Fiona is looking to go further off our coast and not be a significant weather feature?

If Fiona does what last several runs of GFS does Fiona is going to give Bermuda a cat 4/5 hurricane, would be devastating for a very long time its such a small island. I went once it is beatiful, funny enough there was a very strong hurricane headed for us and I have never seen such insane surf. My cousin and I snuck down to the sadly closed beaches like idiots and almost got sucked out. Easily 12 ft crashers maybe bigger. When they hit the wals easily went 50 ft in the air was wild, flooded the pools but we still had fun. North side of the island was calm as could be so at least we got to go there. We got a piece of paper under our doors in the hotel warning us of possible evacuations. I was maybe 11 years old, I am almost positive it was a "f" strom Franc, but said in a french way? We ended up getting off the island the night before as planned and good thing because the bridge to the airport got destroyed (even though the cane luckily at the last min weakend to a cat 2 from a 5. When was the last time a storm of that magnitude hit there.

dkodgis wrote:Fiona is looking to go further off our coast and not be a significant weather feature?

Looks like it will spare the US but as I noted above Bermuda may be in big trouble.

dkodgis wrote:Fiona is looking to go further off our coast and not be a significant weather feature?

Looking that way Damian. Only potential fly in the ointment would be if she gets torn apart  by going right over the mountains of Hispaniola and remains weak once it’s on the northern side. There are a few euro ensembles that still show this possibility. The overall consensus does seem to involves a fairly potent trough that sucks her right up and out.  No is scotia to Bermuda are still in the game as Jon pointed out.

Fwiw she looks really healthy and appears to be getting her act together as the sun sets tonight.