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Post by amugs Tue May 03, 2022 11:01 am



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Post by amugs Wed May 04, 2022 3:06 pm

Showing up after a Summer Surge that is tank top and short weather!!!

Tropics Gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_5day_2594400

That is a cyclone vorticity over the SE HotLantic

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Post by Quietace Sun May 15, 2022 10:21 am

Going to be an active year. But then again, most years are these days given the current macro cycle we are in: Nina base-state and + AMO. It will change eventually, just not sure when.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon May 30, 2022 10:17 pm

NHC has our first area to watch.  GFS LR has it becoming a hurricane well east of the US and heading OTS, but you never know with these things.  And btw hello all, I know I haven't been around much. Life has gotten busy for the better.

Tropics Two_at16
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Post by amugs Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NHC has our first area to watch.  GFS LR has it becoming a hurricane well east of the US and heading OTS, but you never know with these things.  And btw hello all, I know I haven't been around much. Life has gotten busy for the better.

Tropics Two_at16

Here comes Agatha reincarbnated as Alex!!

Tropics FULohq5WUAYEsG2?format=png&name=900x900

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:00 am

I want to know how Costa Rica looks Jun 27-Jul 5 for weather as in…the “H” word. I have business down there. I am wobdering if any severe weather events are on the horizon
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Post by rb924119 Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:17 pm

We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:38 pm

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted. Very Happy
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

I love it when your spidey senses start tingling.  I hope is well my friend.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jun 24, 2022 12:50 pm

Tropics Two_atl_5d0

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:47 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted. Very Happy

That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can Smile

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

I love it when your spidey senses start tingling.  I hope is well my friend.

All is QUITE well…..big things happening on my end, and you’ll find out over the next few months Wink

Hope things are well for you too, brother!

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jun 24, 2022 6:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:Tropics Two_atl_5d0

Saw this, but I don’t think this has a DIRECT impact on our sensible weather, BUT IT MAY have secondary impacts with pattern realignment, especially if it takes off. One of the several variables that needs to be considered with the potential evolution, per usual lol I think this gets squashed into Gulf and impacts them, but it’s diabatic effects are what I’m much more concerned with, again, if it can really gain strength.

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Post by dkodgis Fri Jun 24, 2022 7:03 pm

I will be in Central America in two days. I will let you all know the weather. I think people will ask ¿Usted es el señor Doc? Very Happy
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:34 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted. Very Happy

Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.

Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted. Very Happy

That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can Smile
Tx RB..we have made the trip many times..from Sandy hook Manaquan inlet.its a long ride we are a trawler .so we go slow..lol and I just don't have a good feeling this year...so north we go..on 22 years of boating this is the first time I made my husband change our plans..
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Jun 24, 2022 10:04 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:

RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend  to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted. Very Happy

Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!
on the way up we won't be but on way home we might stop in Tarrytown I will let you know..that would be fun...
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Post by rb924119 Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:28 pm

I know, I know, 18z GFS Op run. But……..the last few frames look pretty close to the evolution described further above Wink fluke, or foretelling? Stay tuned! Hopefully I’ll have an update by early next week that’s more substantive. Perhaps even a video discussion if I feel it’s warranted.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:35 pm

Lovely weather here in Costa Rica. Low 80s. Humid. Rain has been holding off each day.
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Post by rb924119 Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:07 am

I spy with my little eye…..

Tropics 56a30b10

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jun 28, 2022 2:09 am

Tropics F767d110

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jun 28, 2022 11:27 pm

Looks like my earlier conjecture was a false alarm - should just see a time-mean trough over the eastern CONUS which would keep any tropical threats away from our area, excluding any perfect-track Atlantic basin wave that develops and rides the coast.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:15 pm

Pretty colors but nothing really worth tracking, IMHO, all that closely

Tropics Two_atl_5d0

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
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Post by dkodgis Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:20 pm

Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:46 pm

dkodgis wrote:Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall

How long are you there for? Seems like you've been posting from there for a little bit. I am def jealous!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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