Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

This is a good spot of many of the LP's here as circled in red for Sunday into Mondays storm

[amugs]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

[heehaw453]

This is a good spot of many of the LP's here as circled in red for Sunday into Mondays storm

Yeah.  It's going to depend on good Confluence to the north to dampen heights to the north.  Otherwise this pull too far north to flood mid-levels and we rain. But we're used to that by now...

[sroc4]

This is a good spot of many of the LP's here as circled in red for Sunday into Mondays storm

Yeah.  It's going to depend on good Confluence to the north to dampen heights to the north.  Otherwise this pull too far north to flood mid-levels and we rain. But we're used to that by now...

What's been the trend all year....underestimated southern systems that trend stronger in the near term that are able to overcome any resistance to the north raising heights and flooding those mid levels. Eventually that will change, just not sure this is the storm to do it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

[heehaw453]

This is a good spot of many of the LP's here as circled in red for Sunday into Mondays storm

Yeah.  It's going to depend on good Confluence to the north to dampen heights to the north.  Otherwise this pull too far north to flood mid-levels and we rain. But we're used to that by now...

What's been the trend all year....underestimated southern systems that trend stronger in the near term that are able to overcome any resistance to the north raising heights and flooding those mid levels.  Eventually that will change, just not sure this is the storm to do it.  

Going to have to agree with that until more evidence suggests otherwise. Depending on confluence to do the job probably not going to happen as per past experiences.  I think though LHV, NEPA, NW NJ could be in line for some minor accumulations.

[amugs]

Warming is happening in the stratosphere, this will help dislodge the cold for us and help with the pattern moving forward.

[heehaw453]

I still think Sunday night/Monday bears watching.  This wave spacing doesn't seem conducive for a stronger system.  March you can get strong storms w/out the wave spacing, but not so much January. 

[hyde345]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

At least we had some snow and had snow cover for a few weeks. There are many who have recvd nada.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

At least we had some snow and had snow cover for a few weeks. There are many who have recvd nada.

True Hyde but what I’ve had so far which totals 4.8 inches is the normal total by the first week in December.

[heehaw453]

This is D5.  Not sure yet, but if you're NW of I95 this is not a done deal just yet. I don't think this is going to cut inland.  The wave length spacing to the west and confluence to north make me think this intensifies off the coast as it doesn't have room to breathe. I think this shot for inside BM track and not necessarily over land.  We'll see.

[hyde345]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

At least we had some snow and had snow cover for a few weeks. There are many who have recvd nada.

True Hyde but what I’ve had so far which totals 4.8 inches is the normal total by the first week in December.

Oh I know. I only have 5 so far. Horrible winter but at least we had something. It's still hard to believe Central Park has zero so far and could break the all time record.

[dkodgis]

I vote for optimism

[heehaw453]

This EPS snow mean doesn't necessarily mean much, but it's not a bad 5 day signal for snow NW I95.  The op says inland track so need that to come around in the next day or so, otherwise I'm probably whistling Dixie.

[weatherwatchermom]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

At least we had some snow and had snow cover for a few weeks. There are many who have recvd nada.

True Hyde but what I’ve had so far which totals 4.8 inches is the normal total by the first week in December.

Oh I know. I only have 5 so far. Horrible winter but at least we had something. It's still hard to believe Central Park has zero so far and could break the all time record.

We had 5 flakes the other day.. you have to laugh or go mad

[heehaw453]

Time to start looking at the operational for Monday.  This look will be rain for most folks on this board.  A cold rain (33-34) for the interior, but rain nonetheless.

An ULL closing off over I90 works very well for VT, NH, ME but not here.  So unless there are some rather large scale changes this one is finished IMO.  Oh and the one behind incoming 25th ish I'm not too keen on either for snow. Just look how amped up it is.

Storm-->ridge-->storm--->ridge rinse and repeat unfortunately.  Whether the TPV helps us out we see after the 25th, but for now...

[sroc4]

From LC
Now admit it. You thought winter was over!

Guess again. The classic January Thaw configuration is collapsing after a 2.5 week stay in North America. This change is achieved by a shift in the volatile storm sequence from the Pacific Ocean eastward into the lower 48 states, with concurrent ridge formation in the Gulf of Alaska and over the northern Atlantic Ocean. The flat split flow aloft will be replaced by a deep bowl shaped trough at 500MB allowing an Arctic regime over northers Canada to be displaced (quickly, I might add....) southward to the right of the Continental Divide. Each disturbance in the series will yank the colder air southward, with only Florida escaping the winter chill.

The first impulse in the group may set up snow chances in the Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, with a risk of strong/severe thunderstorms from parts of Texas and Oklahoma into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The drop in temperature behind this first system will be marginal. But the next two pieces of energy will produce a rude shock/surprise.



Early next week a combination of a polar and subtropical jet stream shortwaves will strengthen and reform in the western Gulf of Mexico. Following the ECMWF model scenario, this new area of low pressure pulls colder air all the way down to Mexico and begins a trajectory through the Deep South before turning up along the Eastern Seaboard. The rightward shift in this path forecast in recent model runs is irksome. But for now I see this as a rain and thunder event for Interstate 95 communities and a rain/ice/snow change along and 150 miles to the left of the track. That could put parts of TX/OK into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes in some frozen precipitation.

In about ten days, when most of the nation (outside of the Florida Peninsula) is in polar or Arctic air, a wave in northern Mexico will begin a deepening phase as it heads eastward below the Gulf Coast. All who want to see a credible ice and snow threat in the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard need to watch this feature.

We thought Winter was over? For something to be over it needs a beginning.

At least we had some snow and had snow cover for a few weeks. There are many who have recvd nada.

True Hyde but what I’ve had so far which totals 4.8 inches is the normal total by the first week in December.

Oh I know. I only have 5 so far. Horrible winter but at least we had something. It's still hard to believe Central Park has zero so far and could break the all time record.

We had 5 flakes the other day.. you have to laugh or go mad

Or laugh because you have gone mad.

[amugs]

6Z GEFS can work if this where to occur for Monday and it takes the NE trajectory as depicted. Still uncertainty at this tme for this storm even for NW of Metro.

[heehaw453]

Just for demonstration.  This is why it probably won't snow much for 1/25 as modelled now.  There is nothing to dampen the height field close enough for the storm to want to slide BM.  The storm goes exactly where that height field has been setting up.  Pretty much carbon copy of Monday.  That departing storm on Monday would need to set up in a better spot or a piece of the TPV moves further SE IMO.  I don't care what initial thump the GFS is showing on 1/25.  Don't you believe it until the z500 makes sense.  And as shown it doesn't.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm keeping an eye on Monday's possible storm. Right now, the models are taking the low over NJ which taints temperatures for everyone on the board, unless you're in Mikey/Artesian lands.

Unfortunately I'm not too optimistic about the 500mb pattern. I actually feel better about the storm signal around the 25th.

[heehaw453]

Monday's system move this mid-level energy over about 100 miles SE then it'd be another ball game. Models will swing it back and forth most likely but this location is probably a good guess now. That's an I81 special as is. We'd need to see consistent movement more offshore no back/forth. This has to be offshore at least 50 miles.

[heehaw453]

Monday's system the Icon believes in a snow lover's dream.  Has it ever been right?

[phil155]

If the icon is on to something there may even be some snow from the looks of it into the I95. I am hopeful that in the next 10 days our snow drought will come to an end

[Frank_Wx]

The Wednesday wave is the one to watch. This happens to also coincide with the time frame of a possible pattern change as we begin seeing the effects of Strato warming.

The Monday storm could deliver white gold to areas well N&W of here, but I’m not enthused.

[heehaw453]

Definitely NEPA for Monday should watch this.  Enough inside the BM tracks not hugging the coast in the GEFS.  Boundary layer temp is a limiting factor in this.  Air mass won't be ideal for good snow rates regardless of track.

[amugs]

For the #PolarVortex (PV) the hits keep coming with the best yet to come from upwelling wave energy from the troposphere. What does this mean for the PV & the impact on our weather? It's serious when I dust off the six-step snow model. The blog now public: https://t.co/Gg8N2KIjJS pic.twitter.com/KBya32hZrn

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) January 18, 2023

This is along that Frank and I have been posting here for a while now. Dr. Lee and Butler are on this as well.
Cohen said, "I am not predicting a split just ....yet"!! That would be interesting if it happens for midish for late Feb. 
Time will tell 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Monday's system the Icon believes in a snow lover's dream.  Has it ever been right?

It’s been such a horrible non Winter so far maybe we need something supernatural like the Icon being a correct outlier several days in advance to get us out of this funk.

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