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DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:45 am

The main PVA associated with the 500mb trough is coming down from our N&W, which is where you also find the primary surface low near Lake Erie.

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_29

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event 96443f10

By Sunday night into Monday, the main upper energy and trough moved south and east for most of our viewing area.

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event A71bb410

N&W of NYC, where temps hover at to below freezing, will do well and see their first accumulation of the season. I believe you’re in line for 3-5”. The higher amounts of 6”+ will be confined further north near Mikey-land in Albany. There’s a lot of upper energy passing through that will translate to substantial snowfall rates in central NY.

Here’s where the 32-degree line is at 3pm tomorrow which is when there’s moderate precipitation falling over most of us.

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Efddf010

We’re seeing temps above 40 degrees in parts of NYC and Long Island, and still above freezing across central and northern NJ. While I do expect snowflakes to be flying, I think there will rain mixed in and that will hinder snow accumulation. A better chance is likely on Monday when the main energy moves off the coast and a secondary low tries to take over. However, by then I think the storm will be too far off the coast and disorganized. Maybe a sneaky norlun-like trough delivers an inch or two of snow for parts of the coast on Monday but I wouldn’t get your hopes up over it!

I am far more interested in the event late next week for a widespread snowfall event. We’re looking at significant high latitude blocking to take shape. Normally, that’s a sign for coastal storms. The main ingredient for a Godzilla What a Face

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Post by billg315 Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:16 am

This is a system where the upper air temperatures seem cold enough for this to be primarily snow, but the surface temps (and just above) are just warm enough to rain on our parade a bit. So there will definitely be rain to deal with at the outset of this especially south of I-80. Probably one of those events where you see the occasional flakes mixed in with the rain tomorrow  afternoon, and if you get a burst of heavier precip, maybe it looks more snowy for a bit. North of I-80 it likely is cold enough to keep this predominately snow throughout hence the more measurable amounts.
The thing that is of some interest south of I-80 is what Frank points out in his post. All the models to some degree seems to keep the precipitation stuck over the North Jersey/NYC area - what Frank described as the sneaky norlun-like trough (and sneaky they are!) - through early Monday morning when it is finally cold enough to snow. If that modeling is correct it is very possible early risers Monday morning wake up to a steady snowfall and some light accumulations even in spots that were primarily rain during Sunday afternoon/early evening.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:24 am

The 12z NAM between the hours of 5am and 11am seems to have “backside” snow along the coast. If true, this could leave a nice coating to possibly one inch on the ground.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:42 am

Frank_Wx wrote:The 12z NAM between the hours of 5am and 11am seems to have “backside” snow along the coast. If true, this could leave a nice coating to possibly one inch on the ground.

3k even more impressive

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 0.25"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 10, 2022 1:10 pm

NYS expected Storm totals

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Stormt12
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 10, 2022 1:28 pm

I think 2-4 for LHV Orange Country right into the MHV valley is a good call.  The soundings at 1 PM on Sunday on the 3K NAM support below freezing in the entire column and at the surface.  The lapse rates show significant instability of the atmosphere about 620 mb.  So based on this it will snow moderate/heavy and it will stick.  This should be nice event for those folks.  Enjoy!

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Nam47

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Dec 10, 2022 1:30 pm

The only way below rt 80 gets into the action IMO is through possible inverting trough to enhance the lift as the storm starts to pull away.  Very tricky to predict that kind of setup, but if it unfolds over 1" can easily fall IYBY especially on colder surfaces.

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 10, 2022 3:00 pm

It's evolving into a nice little event peeps to kickoff winter - signal is trending better

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event 1670803200-O7lE4KIl88E

This is strong vorticy over NNJ, HV and NE PA  that will casue the best lift and dynamics = dump snow, its in line with the Hi Res HRRR
DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Fjo7EVgWYAAEiaq?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs Sat Dec 10, 2022 3:57 pm

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the #HudsonValley for 3-5 inches of snow from late Sunday morning - early Monday morning!

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Post by hyde345 Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:22 pm

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Sn10_a14
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Post by Math23x7 Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:05 am

Some of the model guidance has 6"+ snow amounts for me here in Albany. And who knows, maybe one of the users in the lower Hudson Valley region (dkodgis, hyde345, or perhaps Doc/CP (though long shot for those two) may get....a Godzilla(!) from this 11th to 12th system Wink

Though said Godzilla is more likely for the peaks of the Catskills. But you never know with systems like these.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 11, 2022 7:34 am

29 degrees, calm wind.Snow has started to fall.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 11, 2022 7:52 am

34.5* holding steady. Going to be cold and raw today here until we see the changeover, feel bad for Giants fans going to the game. Bad enough they are playing the Eagles, but to sit in damp rain showers for the afternoon is going to make it just miserable. Happy to see the snow line moving further south and getting me in the 1" area instead of a trace. Just enough to get us in the holiday mood, good luck to those in northern areas!

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by heehaw453 Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:38 am

I think folks above the purple line stand best chance to see accumulations today.  The mid-levels are cold, but towards the surface is above.  The CAD is pushing towards the interior.  Tomorrow I could see NE NJ, North Shore LI/CT possibly getting some snow with enhancement from the storm as it pulls away.  Have to watch that...

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event Mesosc11

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 11, 2022 9:53 am

It feels like this system trended colder overall, and I can now see 1-2” accumulations for parts of northern NJ that I didn’t think would see much. Still like 3-5” for N&W in Doc/CP land.

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 11, 2022 10:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:It feels like this system trended colder overall, and I can now see 1-2” accumulations for parts of northern NJ that I didn’t think would see much. Still like 3-5” for N&W in Doc/CP land.

LOL, Doc/CP land. Will be reporting on this up here Frank.
This is the 62 anniversary of the December 11-12 1960 snowstorm that hit the tri-state area with over 20 inches in some spots ( except Central Park which probably reported 8.5,LOL).
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:25 pm

Had a few bursts of moderate snows this morning from about 10 AM until about 10:30ish. Best snows to come after dark until the AM - as I said all week long don't discount this block

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:29 pm

36* and a light drizzle after some snow showers this morning. Just yuck.

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 11, 2022 12:36 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:36* and a light drizzle after some snow showers this morning. Just yuck.

I’m roasting a chicken today with starchy vegetables. That kinda day

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:06 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:36* and a light drizzle after some snow showers this morning. Just yuck.
Your 2 miles SE of me by a crows flight and I've had flakes on and off all day, must be the vibes down there as a Mets Fan LOL!!
Nice gentle moderate snow now.

Nice radar depiction of what is coming into today.
Overnight stuff is not on here as the secondary pops off the coast: 33nRain Qtown map

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event 1047248294_RAD_MOS_STATE_NJ_L2WINTER_ANI(61).gif.e3f6ef51258a87b026d8c1840b71f906

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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:09 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:36* and a light drizzle after some snow showers this morning. Just yuck.
Your 2 miles SE of me by a crows flight and I've had flakes on and off all day, must be the vibes down there as a Mets Fan LOL!!
Nice gentle moderate snow now.

Nice radar depiction of what is coming into today.
Overnight stuff is not on here as the secondary pops off the coast: 33nRain Qtown map

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event 1047248294_RAD_MOS_STATE_NJ_L2WINTER_ANI(61).gif.e3f6ef51258a87b026d8c1840b71f906

Had snow showers earlier, but left Cornerstone after brunch to a light drizzle, back to snow again, big flakes, 36*

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Snowfall winter of 2022-2023  1.5"  

Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by 1190ftalt Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:15 pm

About 1 inch on the ground in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, grass covered sticking to roads, salt trucks just went thru, Temperature 31 degrees .

DEC 11th-12th First Wintry Event 18cbe710
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Post by brownie Sun Dec 11, 2022 1:57 pm

It’s been snowing lightly here on and off all day.  Really coming down now, sticking to the grass and deck.

(Originally posted this in the wrong thread!)

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sun Dec 11, 2022 2:08 pm

39 raw day with stready rain
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 11, 2022 2:35 pm

OKX updates Winter Weather Advisory valid at Dec 11, 10:00 AM EST (expands area to include 7 zones, continues 1 zone) till Dec 12, 7:00 AM EST https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/f/2022-O-EXA-KOKX-WW-Y-0017_2022-12-11T15:00Z
3:19 AM · Dec 11, 2022

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