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Possible minor snowfall threat 1/6

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:25 am

There is a potential minor impact snowfall for 1/6 which favors NW areas due to track of the ULL and antecedent air mass being poor.  A change of just 50-100 miles can provide a more expansive threat below route 80.  This has high bust potential even for areas north/west as the PAC flow is fast which will cut down ridging potential to west and allow this energy to go further north which cuts down snowfall.

Where I have the X's are the problem areas and the check is good.  We would need to see the ridge hold up a bit better to allow the ULL energy to slide further south. I don't believe where it is currently modelled on GFS will work out for most.




Possible minor snowfall threat 1/6 Gfs125

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:45 pm

The southern energy has consistently been undermodeled in its strength in the LR and medium range. Once again as we have gotten in tight it appears it has evolved to what is stronger than was prev modeled, and closes off early and cuts off from the mean flow.  This raises heights yet again out in front flooding the area with warm air.  There is a weak omega block to the north that prevents it from lifting all the way through the GL into Canada but it doesn’t matter. It gets far enough. I’m 90% done with this one.

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:14 pm

The Euro UL energy is more strung out and hence nothing really develops.  The GFS is more consolidated as the energy crosses the area.  IMO it has a lot do with the trough in the west. On the Euro less spacing which just causes the energy to spread out whereas GFS it's more directed and consolidated. As per GFS it's close enough to watch it for another 24 hours IMO.



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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:55 pm

The 500mb low is modeled to track into upstate NY. I don’t think anyone is seeing snow from this

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