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Light snow event 1/31-2/1

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Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Empty Light snow event 1/31-2/1

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:26 pm

Discuss light snow event.  This could be an overperformer for E LI and Jersey Coast due to baroclinic zone enhancement of mid-level instability.

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:28 pm

This could break CPK and Philly's streak!

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:49 pm

18Z RGEM.  Check out the heavy snow over JC and E LI.  It's starting to pick up on the enhanced lift.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Rgem19

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:06 pm

Looks like every single model is now calling for a few hours of snow for much/all of southern NJ and LI! Still only projecting to an inch or so, but oh man, I'm in for that!!!

Here's a snippet of the 12K Nam for early morning (4 am), bringing decent snow to not only SNJ, but also some of SEPA, NNJ and LI as well:
Light snow event  1/31-2/1 12nam110

And here is 6 am and 7 am on the 12K showing at least a chance for a pretty big impact to the morning commute:
Light snow event  1/31-2/1 12nam210

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 12nam310

And finally, the total precip call from the 12K NAM and heehaw you are right, you can definitely see the potential for higher amounts based on how close the Shore and LI are to those offshore colors that are darker than what they are currently under.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 12nam410

So, things are looking good at just the right time here at the Jersey Coast for some kind of legit snow fall. But like has been said a lot on this board lately, until the snow is actually falling, I'm figuring that it won't, but hoping that it does! lol. cheers  Light snow event  1/31-2/1 2744  cheers  Light snow event  1/31-2/1 2744 cheers

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:37 pm

The GFS is where my head is at with this one.  Note the energy blow up right at the baroclinic zone. That should cause instability inland too.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Gfs152
Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Gfs231

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:43 pm

Ratios will be good.  I think local 3" amounts are possible.  Limiting factor is the strength and speed of the wave. General 1-2" seems reasonable to me.
Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Gfs312

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 31, 2023 7:53 pm

EURO!!! SNJ JACKPOT...LIKE THEY ....SHEEESH

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Fn1wok10

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:10 pm

I wouldn't be shocked if heavier precip pulls north right into NYC.  Philly definitely ends their shutout and think NYC does too.  Temps have already wet bulbed below freezing past the urban corridor. This won't be a white rain thing.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Wetbul27

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 31, 2023 8:34 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if heavier precip pulls north right into NYC.  Philly definitely ends their shutout and think NYC does too.  Temps have already wet bulbed below freezing past the urban corridor. This won't be a white rain thing.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Wetbul27

0z HRR suddenly is now a complete miss besides SNJ. Hmmm..

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:00 pm

aiannone wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I wouldn't be shocked if heavier precip pulls north right into NYC.  Philly definitely ends their shutout and think NYC does too.  Temps have already wet bulbed below freezing past the urban corridor. This won't be a white rain thing.

Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Wetbul27

0z HRR suddenly is now a complete miss besides SNJ. Hmmm..

Hopefully that’s not the case, but would certainly be par for the course this season.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 31, 2023 9:02 pm

And NAM less amped and a tick South as well. Deep sigh. Now cast time I guess

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by frank 638 Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:41 am

Got a nice fresh coating of snow looks nice outside . Still coming down pretty good I wish I get at least a couple inches

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Post by Coachgriff Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:44 am

Very light snow in west-central NJ….the intensity will need to pick-up quite a bit if we are going to achieve a dusting….temp is a very respectable 28.
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Post by Quietace Wed Feb 01, 2023 6:04 am

Very light snow. Probably closer to a dusting than a coating on the coldest surfaces. Nothing measurable on the street or sidewalks.
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Post by brownie Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:01 am

I woke up to a dusting of snow. Not really measurable for me with my yardstick. Maybe 1/8” at best. I’ll check NWS reports later.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:06 am

Another underwhelming event this winter what a shock.  Coating on all surfaces.  .1" will do it here.  Check the airport reports in a bit.

25.8/21

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:35 am

Central Park streak is over with 0.4 inches.

The quest for the most snowless winter continues. Still need 2.5 inches to get out of last place. That seems like Everest in this pattern.
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Post by kalleg Wed Feb 01, 2023 7:39 am

Barely a dusting in New Hope. 28*

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Post by Coachgriff Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:03 am

A solid powdering in west-central NJ….about 1 flake deep…but hey…it’s snow!!
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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:11 am

PHL has broken the shutout too with .3" LOL  About the kind of amount you'd expect to end it.


Light snow event  1/31-2/1 Phisno10

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:13 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Central Park streak is over with 0.4 inches.

The quest for the most snowless winter continues. Still need 2.5 inches to get out of last place. That seems like Everest in this pattern.
Yes.  Got the feeling maybe another car topper or two and that'll do it this season.  The record will be challenged.

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:08 am

A very robust .3” down here at Exit 80 at the Shore. Brings the seasonal snowfall total for these parts to a very robust .35” (cold surfaces only of course).

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Post by SENJsnowman Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:08 am

A very robust .3” down here at Exit 80 at the Shore. Brings the seasonal snowfall total for these parts to a very robust .35” (cold surfaces only of course).

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:25 am

SENJsnowman wrote:A very robust .3” down here at Exit 80 at the Shore. Brings the seasonal snowfall total for these parts to a very robust .35” (cold surfaces only of course).

You’re so excited by 3/10 of an inch of snow that you had to post it twice, LOL.
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Post by amugs Wed Feb 01, 2023 9:26 am

I has about .1" on the snow board overnight, ground was whitened up a bit as was a large swath of my street. Looked pretty and felt like winter for a change.
La Nina rears its ugly head once again.
Amazing how in Tex, Ark and Tenn they are being crippling by an ice storm at the 33 - 35th parallel !!!!! Extreme that it is.

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