Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
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kalleg
billg315
sroc4
weatherwatchermom
brownie
Coachgriff
essexcountypete
1190ftalt
phil155
Dunnzoo
SENJsnowman
Frank_Wx
heehaw453
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Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
A clipper ULL will be pushed under a block and further pushed down by an Atlantic trough which will move the system from NE to SE. This has the potential to produce a minor snow event from 195 to Rt 80. Surface temps will be marginal, but most of the precip falls at night.
1-3" in the aforementioned zone on colder surfaces with locally higher amounts possible IF there is any faster strengthening or slowing down of the system due to the Atlantic trough.
These kinds of systems can be sneaky and need to watch for any faster development than what's currently thought.
1-3" in the aforementioned zone on colder surfaces with locally higher amounts possible IF there is any faster strengthening or slowing down of the system due to the Atlantic trough.
These kinds of systems can be sneaky and need to watch for any faster development than what's currently thought.
Last edited by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:41 am; edited 1 time in total
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
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SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Doh! If the precip does stay north like that, at least it has a better chance of staying snow. Forecast highs for the Shore today are in the 50’s, so I’m not expecting it to be cold enough down here to maintain frozen precip even if it does make it down here.
But I’ll keep an eye on it…it’s only like the 2nd or 3rd time this year that there has been any support for more than flakes down here. Hopefully some of us on the board can wet our beak a little tonight…
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
For sure heehaw, the 12z Nam def ticked back north and lowered amounts in general. And make noooo mistake, my prediction for tonight is 0.0" accumulated snowfall for coastal Ocean County NJ.
HOWEVER,
I took a closer look at the HRRR that Dunzoo had posted above, and lo and behold! Now 5 straight runs of the snow fall coming more and more to the south!
The HRRR is run hourly, so these represent the last 5 hours worth of runs. I mean, I'm not wrong in what I'm seeing am I? The last couple runs bring the snow down to Ocean County, just past Bayville it seems. And even the 12z Nam still puts an inch or two down to coastal Ocean County.
11z HRRR

12z HRRR

13z HRRR

14z HRRR

15z HRRR- hot off the press!

12z NAM

So, at this point, I have to say that I am eagerly anticipating the developments throughout the day. And btw, there's 3-5" on the table for certainly far northern NJ, possibly as far south as 195. And possibly even 1-2" as far N and E as Brooklyn and Queens.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
A blessing for CNJ/SNJ is the overnight timing. If this came during the day no doubt in my mind it would not stick. Today's runs show much of the same, a very fast swath of snow developing after Midnight and dropping anywhere from a coating to 1". Might exceed 1" in NNJ since it's obviously colder but that will depend on where the heaviest band forms.
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
I am going all on on this, I think ncnj gets a major storm(by this season's standars) and gets a solid 1 to as much as 2 inches. All in
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023

The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!
The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
SENJsnowman wrote:
The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!
The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…
I think you’re right
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Hi 51* today, if the snow moves in too early, it won't stick. The forecast for my area is to get into the 20's tonight, but not sure if it will cool off enough in time.
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Looks like we’re getting a head start to the action. Though I’m sure some of this is virga. Regardless temps are in the 40s. Doesn’t look too great for snow


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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Honestly this clipper looks healthy. Some pretty impressive banding will make it through our area after midnight, and some of this rain may help saturate the mid levels.
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/ny/binghamton
https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/ny/binghamton
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Snowing, 34 degrees
1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Just started here as sleet, 42 degrees
essexcountypete- Pro Enthusiast
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1190ftalt- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Flurries at 41 degrees
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
A very pretty 3/4 of an inch of snow in Central NJ…roads are clear but a solid coating on the grass…should be very pretty as the sun comes up!
Coachgriff- Posts : 34
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
2.25” on the grass here. Next to nothing on the driveway.
brownie- Posts : 354
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Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023
Nothing on the grass, nothing on the roads,
nothing on the trees and nothing on the toads.
nothing on the trees and nothing on the toads.
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