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Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023

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Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Empty Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023

Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:39 am

A clipper ULL will be pushed under a block and further pushed down by an Atlantic trough which will move the system from NE to SE. This has the potential to produce a minor snow event from 195 to Rt 80. Surface temps will be marginal, but most of the precip falls at night. 

1-3" in the aforementioned zone on colder surfaces with locally higher amounts possible IF there is any faster strengthening or slowing down of the system due to the Atlantic trough. 

These kinds of systems can be sneaky and need to watch for any faster development than what's currently thought.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:41 am; edited 1 time in total

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Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Empty Re: Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:39 am

The EURO and NAM are targeting central/southern NJ while GFS is more north with it

Here’s this mornings NAM

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 A19fd110
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 E5ee8410

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:51 am

Dang! Wouldn't even know what to do with that 2 inches that might make it all the way down here tonight. On second thought actually, we'd probably build a snowman with it!!

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 12knam10

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Mar 06, 2023 8:40 am

HRRR has it skirting NNJ

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Hrrr_r10

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:14 am

Dunnzoo wrote:HRRR has it skirting NNJ

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Hrrr_r10

Doh! If the precip does stay north like that, at least it has a better chance of staying snow. Forecast highs for the Shore today are in the 50’s, so I’m not expecting it to be cold enough down here to maintain frozen precip even if it does make it down here.

But I’ll keep an eye on it…it’s only like the 2nd or 3rd time this year that there has been any support for more than flakes down here. Hopefully some of us on the board can wet our beak a little tonight…

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:17 am

It's going to depend on where the H7 forcing sets up. 12Z NAM moved north a bit. It's going to be a game time thing but based on movements I'd say rt 80 to 195 is best guess.

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Nam58

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:46 am

heehaw453 wrote:It's going to depend on where the H7 forcing sets up. 12Z NAM moved north a bit. It's going to be a game time thing but based on movements I'd say rt 80 to 195 is best guess.

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Nam58

For sure heehaw, the 12z Nam def ticked back north and lowered amounts in general. And make noooo mistake, my prediction for tonight is 0.0" accumulated snowfall for coastal Ocean County NJ.

HOWEVER,

I took a closer look at the HRRR that Dunzoo had posted above, and lo and behold! Now 5 straight runs of the snow fall coming more and more to the south!

The HRRR is run hourly, so these represent the last 5 hours worth of runs. I mean, I'm not wrong in what I'm seeing am I? The last couple runs bring the snow down to Ocean County, just past Bayville it seems. And even the 12z Nam still puts an inch or two down to coastal Ocean County.  

11z HRRR
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 11z10

12z HRRR

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 12z10

13z HRRR
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 13z10

14z HRRR
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 14z10

15z HRRR- hot off the press!
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 15z11


12z NAM
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 15z10

So, at this point, I have to say that I am eagerly anticipating the developments throughout the day. And btw, there's 3-5" on the table for certainly far northern NJ, possibly as far south as 195. And possibly even 1-2" as far N and E as Brooklyn and Queens.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:13 pm

A blessing for CNJ/SNJ is the overnight timing. If this came during the day no doubt in my mind it would not stick. Today's runs show much of the same, a very fast swath of snow developing after Midnight and dropping anywhere from a coating to 1". Might exceed 1" in NNJ since it's obviously colder but that will depend on where the heaviest band forms.

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Post by phil155 Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:33 pm

I am going all on on this, I think ncnj gets a major storm(by this season's standars) and gets a solid 1 to as much as 2 inches. All in

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Post by SENJsnowman Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:36 pm

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Df5b9210

The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!

The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:45 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Df5b9210

The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!

The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…

I think you’re right

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:17 pm

Hi 51* today, if the snow moves in too early, it won't stick. The forecast for my area is to get into the 20's tonight, but not sure if it will cool off enough in time.

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:10 pm

Looks like we’re getting a head start to the action. Though I’m sure some of this is virga. Regardless temps are in the 40s. Doesn’t look too great for snow

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Inxr1Kphla_h


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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:10 pm

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Cbfda110

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:12 pm

Honestly this clipper looks healthy. Some pretty impressive banding will make it through our area after midnight, and some of this rain may help saturate the mid levels.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/ny/binghamton

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Post by 1190ftalt Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:46 pm

Snowing, 34 degrees
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:30 am

Just started here as sleet, 42 degrees
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:45 am

Snowing reel hard ground coverd in less then hour, 31 degrees , sticking to everything Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 68212510
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Edf42910
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:02 am

Flurries at 41 degrees
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Post by essexcountypete Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:25 am

Gigantic snow blob flakes are falling. Many bigger than a square inch a couple that were about 2 in long. Never seen anything like this. 37 degrees Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Img_2011
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Post by 1190ftalt Tue Mar 07, 2023 2:19 am

2 inches of snow at 2:09 in the am, snowing hard 29 degrees Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 0143e110
Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 B3772c10
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Mar 07, 2023 3:49 am

1.5" here at 600' ASL on colder surfaces. Temp went from 45 at 7:30 to 30.5 currently. It ripped as good as it's going to rip this season.

Seasonal total 6.6" single digit snowfall IMBY once every 25 years or so and very possible 2 times in three years.

Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023 Snow12

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Post by Coachgriff Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:44 am

A very pretty 3/4 of an inch of snow in Central NJ…roads are clear but a solid coating on the grass…should be very pretty as the sun comes up!
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Post by brownie Tue Mar 07, 2023 6:58 am

2.25” on the grass here. Next to nothing on the driveway.

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Mar 07, 2023 7:03 am

Nothing on the grass, nothing on the roads,
nothing on the trees and nothing on the toads.

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