Minor snow event Monday night into Tuesday pre-dawn 3/7/2023

A clipper ULL will be pushed under a block and further pushed down by an Atlantic trough which will move the system from NE to SE. This has the potential to produce a minor snow event from 195 to Rt 80. Surface temps will be marginal, but most of the precip falls at night. 

1-3" in the aforementioned zone on colder surfaces with locally higher amounts possible IF there is any faster strengthening or slowing down of the system due to the Atlantic trough. 

These kinds of systems can be sneaky and need to watch for any faster development than what's currently thought.

The EURO and NAM are targeting central/southern NJ while GFS is more north with it

Here’s this mornings NAM

Dang! Wouldn't even know what to do with that 2 inches that might make it all the way down here tonight. On second thought actually, we'd probably build a snowman with it!!

HRRR has it skirting NNJ

Dunnzoo wrote:HRRR has it skirting NNJ

Doh! If the precip does stay north like that, at least it has a better chance of staying snow. Forecast highs for the Shore today are in the 50’s, so I’m not expecting it to be cold enough down here to maintain frozen precip even if it does make it down here.

But I’ll keep an eye on it…it’s only like the 2nd or 3rd time this year that there has been any support for more than flakes down here. Hopefully some of us on the board can wet our beak a little tonight…

It's going to depend on where the H7 forcing sets up. 12Z NAM moved north a bit. It's going to be a game time thing but based on movements I'd say rt 80 to 195 is best guess.

heehaw453 wrote:It's going to depend on where the H7 forcing sets up. 12Z NAM moved north a bit. It's going to be a game time thing but based on movements I'd say rt 80 to 195 is best guess.

For sure heehaw, the 12z Nam def ticked back north and lowered amounts in general. And make noooo mistake, my prediction for tonight is 0.0" accumulated snowfall for coastal Ocean County NJ.

HOWEVER,

I took a closer look at the HRRR that Dunzoo had posted above, and lo and behold! Now 5 straight runs of the snow fall coming more and more to the south!

The HRRR is run hourly, so these represent the last 5 hours worth of runs. I mean, I'm not wrong in what I'm seeing am I? The last couple runs bring the snow down to Ocean County, just past Bayville it seems. And even the 12z Nam still puts an inch or two down to coastal Ocean County.  

11z HRRR


12z HRRR



13z HRRR


14z HRRR


15z HRRR- hot off the press!



12z NAM


So, at this point, I have to say that I am eagerly anticipating the developments throughout the day. And btw, there's 3-5" on the table for certainly far northern NJ, possibly as far south as 195. And possibly even 1-2" as far N and E as Brooklyn and Queens.

A blessing for CNJ/SNJ is the overnight timing. If this came during the day no doubt in my mind it would not stick. Today's runs show much of the same, a very fast swath of snow developing after Midnight and dropping anywhere from a coating to 1". Might exceed 1" in NNJ since it's obviously colder but that will depend on where the heaviest band forms.

I am going all on on this, I think ncnj gets a major storm(by this season's standars) and gets a solid 1 to as much as 2 inches. All in

The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!

The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…

SENJsnowman wrote:

The good news- an hour ago, there was no “Expected Snowfall” Table. Two hours ago the forecast was for just rain!

The bad news- the timing of the cold coming and the precip leaving isn’t going to allow time for much accumulation at all. Another hour or two and maybe, but our ground down here is probably way too warm to accumulate right away. We’ll see…

I think you’re right

Hi 51* today, if the snow moves in too early, it won't stick. The forecast for my area is to get into the 20's tonight, but not sure if it will cool off enough in time.

Looks like we’re getting a head start to the action. Though I’m sure some of this is virga. Regardless temps are in the 40s. Doesn’t look too great for snow

Honestly this clipper looks healthy. Some pretty impressive banding will make it through our area after midnight, and some of this rain may help saturate the mid levels.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/ny/binghamton

Snowing, 34 degrees

Just started here as sleet, 42 degrees

Snowing reel hard ground coverd in less then hour, 31 degrees , sticking to everything

Flurries at 41 degrees

Gigantic snow blob flakes are falling. Many bigger than a square inch a couple that were about 2 in long. Never seen anything like this. 37 degrees

2 inches of snow at 2:09 in the am, snowing hard 29 degrees

1.5" here at 600' ASL on colder surfaces. Temp went from 45 at 7:30 to 30.5 currently. It ripped as good as it's going to rip this season.

Seasonal total 6.6" single digit snowfall IMBY once every 25 years or so and very possible 2 times in three years.

A very pretty 3/4 of an inch of snow in Central NJ…roads are clear but a solid coating on the grass…should be very pretty as the sun comes up!

2.25” on the grass here. Next to nothing on the driveway.

Nothing on the grass, nothing on the roads,
nothing on the trees and nothing on the toads.