2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

NOAA pretty bullish predictions!

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

I have been very busy however see some storms showing up for the FL panhandle in the LR GFS.

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

Speaking of the tropics saw this today

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  





Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

Speaking of the tropics saw this today

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  





Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  

Yes completely agree and now that I think about it I should have mentioned that in the opening post.

As usual Levi offers world class analysis on the upcoming Tropical season.  Feel free to get your weather geek on this weekend. Hope all is well with everyone.

Dare I say the silence on the board is “the calm before the storm(s)”.

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

Speaking of the tropics saw this today

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  





Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  

Yes completely agree and now that I think about it I should have mentioned that in the opening post.

The general use of Named Storms (e.g., counts, named storm days etc. ) as a metric of seasonal TC activity is no longer widely used in the scientific sphere, mostly due to what you mentioned, the dramatic improvements to the spatial coverage, precision, and availability of remote observations globally.

Further, the separation between early, post-satellite, and even modern day era IBTrACS data is also well discussed and a known limitation to our ability to correlate modern seasonal activity to historical activity. Modern day IBTrACS data still has uncertainty associated with it.

Atlantic HURDAT Database Uncertainty (Landsea et al. 2013): https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/10/mwr-d-12-00254.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts (Landsea et al. 2010):
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/10/2009jcli3034.1.xml

Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis data (Truchelet and Hart 2011):
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL046756

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 (Chris Landsea):
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2007EO180001

Th MDR is still warm but you can see has certainly tempered a little.

docstox12 wrote:https://news.yahoo.com/first-tropical-storm-warning-hurricane-122105136.html

Yes sir and like was mentioned in the prev post this got named and with 10-12 hrs moved over land.  Named or not impacts long the Texas and Mexico coast lines and mountains inland were going to be the same.  

Recon headed towards the area off the EC of Fla.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

sroc4 wrote:Recon headed towards the area off the EC of Fla.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Interested to see how NHC handles this lol They have a pretty high probability of development, yet nothing is currently indicating anything more than open wave or sub-1016mb surface pressure, which makes sense with the anomalous easterly flow.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Recon headed towards the area off the EC of Fla.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Interested to see how NHC handles this lol They have a pretty high probability of development, yet nothing is currently indicating anything more than open wave or sub-1016mb surface pressure, which makes sense with the anomalous easterly flow.

I have been watching this one mot of the day on sat imagery.  There has been a pretty well defined closed surface low in the visible since this am but it was naked all day.  It has slowly moved under that area of convection that is likely firing as a result of the late day instability.  You can def see there is upper elevel shear onthe south side of the area, but there is some decent outflow on the N side both in the NE and NW quadrants. Well see

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=92L&product=vis

Invest 92  Very Clear defined LLC completely devoid of convection.  You can clearly see the Northerly wind shear evidenced by the cloud tops being blown off in the southerly direction.  Look at the clouds just off the S Carolina coast to see what Im saying.  This is also why you see the main ball of convection being pushed south of the LLC and really struggling to get going. This LLC is about over land so this goose is cooked IMO.  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=92L&product=vis

Beyrl is a beast 115moh and strengthening. Tiny windfield though for a cat 3. Islands and the jamaica which isnt that common are go get slammed. This one def deserves a name.

jmanley32 wrote:Beyrl is a beast 115moh and strengthening. Tiny windfield though for a cat 3. Islands and the jamaica which isnt that common are go get slammed. This one def deserves a name.

In the words of the great Ron Burgundy....




Talk about your all time swing and misses by the NHC.  A mere 36 hrs ago the NHC had this storm forecast to still be a tropical storm; not gaining hurricane status until tonight 8pm and never reaching Major status.  36hrs later its already a major.  No harm no foul as Beryl is still over open waters but NHC didn't even see Beryl reaching major status until the 11am-2pm updates yesterday.  Prior to that it still only had it as hurricane status only throughout its 5 day forecast. That certainly doesn't leave the islands a lot of time to prepare as it looks to pass through the southern half of the Lesser Antilles Monday am into afternoon.  




Ive been following along with this one but have not really been looking into the details of the model forecast however.  Just looking at the SST's while its warm, there is nothing special specifically about how warm.  In general the tropical wave that was I95 has ramped up this quickly over waters between 27*c on the N periphery and 29*c on the southern periphery with mostly 28*c temps.  This is a mere 80-84*f water temps.  Again warm, but not exactly rocket fuel.  More like standard unleaded gasoline as far as the tropics go.  There are clearly other mechanisms beyond why this system has ramped up so rapidly.



When asking the question, how could modeling get it so wrong for situations like this its pertinent IMO to look outside the box.  In years past when we've looked at other Trop systems that have ramped up much more rapidly than prev thought many have looked to the suns activity and the timing of such as a potential contributing factor.  Its obviously WAAAYY more complex than the me simply saying..." Look the suns activity ramped up just before our system ramped up therefore we make a 1 to 1 assumption about a cause"  But In being an astute observer there appears to me at least to be some sort of linkage the exxtent of which still is unclear.  

So bottom line below is the KP index which is used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. "Kp is an excellent indicator of disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and is used by SWPC to decide whether geomagnetic alerts and warnings need to be issued for users who are affected by these disturbances.

The principal users affected by geomagnetic storms are the electrical power grid, spacecraft operations, users of radio signals that reflect off of or pass through the ionosphere, and observers of the aurora." KP Index

You can clearly see that there was a ramp up of geomagnetic energy into earths system from the sun between the 27th-30th.  Combined with multiple other intricate and complimentary factors perhaps the suns perfect timing could have been the key to such a rapid intensification when the models and the NHC couldn't see it within 36hrs since the models don't incorporate anything specific the sun does into their algorithm(at least not that Im aware of).  The added energy into the earths system then allowed the atmospheric conditions in the MDR region to transition immediately to "Baby bear" aka just right for rapid intensification.  

Anyway just a thought.  Hope all is well with everyone.

jmanley32 wrote:Beyrl is a beast 115moh and strengthening. Tiny windfield though for a cat 3. Islands and the jamaica which isnt that common are go get slammed. This one def deserves a name.

I believe this is the earliest Cape Verde hurricane on record, beating out the all-time record season of 1933. Eerily enough, there are many similarities between that year and 2024. But yeah, it’s definitely a very tiny storm. Reminds me of the Cat-3 storm a few years ago. It’s wind field was like 50 miles across or something lol I don’t remember exactly when it was, or the name, but it was small haha very different from the Pacific storms, and also very different from storms years ago, and it’s been a theme for quite a while in the Atlantic. Not really sure why, though hypotheses have been offered.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Beyrl is a beast 115moh and strengthening. Tiny windfield though for a cat 3. Islands and the jamaica which isnt that common are go get slammed. This one def deserves a name.

In the words of the great Ron Burgundy....




Talk about your all time swing and misses by the NHC.  A mere 36 hrs ago the NHC had this storm forecast to still be a tropical storm; not gaining hurricane status until tonight 8pm and never reaching Major status.  36hrs later its already a major.  No harm no foul as Beryl is still over open waters but NHC didn't even see Beryl reaching major status until the 11am-2pm updates yesterday.  Prior to that it still only had it as hurricane status only throughout its 5 day forecast.  That certainly doesn't leave the islands a lot of time to prepare as it looks to pass through the southern half of the Lesser Antilles Monday am into afternoon.  




Ive been following along with this one but have not really been looking into the details of the model forecast however.  Just looking at the SST's while its warm, there is nothing special specifically about how warm.  In general the tropical wave that was I95 has ramped up this quickly over waters between 27*c on the N periphery and 29*c on the southern periphery with mostly 28*c temps.  This is a mere 80-84*f water temps.  Again warm, but not exactly rocket fuel.  More like standard unleaded gasoline as far as the tropics go.  There are clearly other mechanisms beyond why this system has ramped up so rapidly.



When asking the question, how could modeling get it so wrong for situations like this its pertinent IMO to look outside the box.  In years past when we've looked at other Trop systems that have ramped up much more rapidly than prev thought many have looked to the suns activity and the timing of such as a potential contributing factor.  Its obviously WAAAYY more complex than the me simply saying..." Look the suns activity ramped up just before our system ramped up therefore we make a 1 to 1 assumption about a cause"  But In being an astute observer there appears to me at least to be some sort of linkage the exxtent of which still is unclear.  

So bottom line below is the KP index which is used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. "Kp is an excellent indicator of disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and is used by SWPC to decide whether geomagnetic alerts and warnings need to be issued for users who are affected by these disturbances.

The principal users affected by geomagnetic storms are the electrical power grid, spacecraft operations, users of radio signals that reflect off of or pass through the ionosphere, and observers of the aurora." KP Index

You can clearly see that there was a ramp up of geomagnetic energy into earths system from the sun between the 27th-30th.  Combined with multiple other intricate and complimentary factors perhaps the suns perfect timing could have been the key to such a rapid intensification when the models and the NHC couldn't see it within 36hrs since the models don't incorporate anything specific the sun does into their algorithm(at least not that Im aware of).  The added energy into the earths system then allowed the atmospheric conditions in the MDR region to transition immediately to "Baby bear" aka just right for rapid intensification.  

Anyway just a thought.  Hope all is well with everyone.

Very, very interesting post, Scott!! I’ve heard similar ideas before, though haven’t ever explored them on my own, but it’s really cool and intriguing to see the overlap in real time! It would be cool to keep tabs on this as we go throughout this and future seasons to see if we can find any type of relationship between these events.

In addition to your post, I’d also like to add that this storm is an area of anomalously low shear and in an area with large-scale forcing for ascent based on velocity potentials associated with a weak MJO pulse in Phase 2. With the potency of the African waves, it’s not a stretch to understand how these additional mechanisms probably also aided the enhanced development. I’d tend to think the presence of cooler water in the eastern Niño regions and along western Mexico are further aiding by enhancing higher surface pressures there which increases low-level convergence relative to the time-mean and climatology in the Caribbean, but I don’t have time to check on that now. Regardless, it’s a great demonstration of our limitations of forecast guidance, as you pointed out above.

Today’s 12z GEM is nearly a nightmarish forecast for Beryl with respect to its track and mid-latitude evolution. IF it can shoot the gap through Yucatán Channel and keep its circulation over water, I think it could prove to be a VERY formidable storm for the Gulf Coast states. That said, I don’t know if it’s a “legitimate” track option….

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Beyrl is a beast 115moh and strengthening. Tiny windfield though for a cat 3. Islands and the jamaica which isnt that common are go get slammed. This one def deserves a name.

I believe this is the earliest Cape Verde hurricane on record, beating out the all-time record season of 1933. Eerily enough, there are many similarities between that year and 2024. But yeah, it’s definitely a very tiny storm. Reminds me of the Cat-3 storm a few years ago. It’s wind field was like 50 miles across or something lol I don’t remember exactly when it was, or the name, but it was small haha very different from the Pacific storms, and also very different from storms years ago, and it’s been a theme for quite a while in the Atlantic. Not really sure why, though hypotheses have been offered.

I got into a brief discussion at work about how tiny Beryl is, so I did some quick digging. Look at this highlighted bullet point from hurricanescience.org:





How crazy is that?!! Based on the wind fields, the ENTIRETY of Beryl could fit inside THE EYE of Hurricane Donna (1960 Donna). The difference in scale there is mind blowing to me.

Recon just made a pass on the NE quad and surface level winds recorded 125kts(144mph)!  Yikes

There is a second low level recon in there as well currently passing through the NE Quad