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2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

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2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Empty 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by jmanley32 Tue Jun 04, 2024 8:45 pm

NOAA pretty bullish predictions!

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

I have been very busy however see some storms showing up for the FL panhandle in the LR GFS.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jun 05, 2024 9:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Screen14

Speaking of the tropics saw this today👀👀

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Carssta

Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:25 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Screen14

Speaking of the tropics saw this today👀👀

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Carssta

Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  
Yes completely agree and now that I think about it I should have mentioned that in the opening post.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jun 08, 2024 7:15 am

As usual Levi offers world class analysis on the upcoming Tropical season.  Feel free to get your weather geek on this weekend. Hope all is well with everyone.

Dare I say the silence on the board is “the calm before the storm(s)”.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FckKf5lA78k5iChxfVz%2Fgiphy


_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Quietace Sun Jun 09, 2024 8:21 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:
dkodgis wrote:Such a beautiful morning...73 now but I see 86 on tap today and it looks like a good dose of rain Thursday. I am waiting for the mid-June warmup and keeping an eye on the Tropics.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Screen14

Speaking of the tropics saw this today👀👀

Important to point out te difference between hype and reality.  And mom please dont take this as a knock on your post.  

Id like to make a few points.  First:  nothing is boiling.  The Caribbean as a whole is sitting about 1*C above Avg (between about 84-86*F or 29-30*C); keeping in mind avg is created by averaging routine above and below the "avg" value year after year, decade after decade.  

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Carssta

Second point:  
These temps DO NOT go down 300 feet!  Any significant storm WILL cause up welling in its wake the extent of which is yet to be determined.  

Third:  SST is only one of MANY factors in determining IF a trop storm will develop, strengthen or weaken despite how warm the water is beneath it.  

One final comment on Jmans post in the Tropical thread he started:(and I will copy and paste this post in there where we can cont any tropical discussion there) Keep in mind that in todays modern satellite era, esp over the past 25yrs, but more so in the last decade or so, storms that have no business being named are being named.  We in here have seen and even discussed storms that get named for like 12 hrs out in the middle of the Atlantic that immediately recurve and dissipate.  These storms would never have been even know about not more than 50-75 years ago.  So keep that in mind this year when the global warming alarmists get on the bullhorn about how many more storms there are these days.  In here throughout the tropical season regardless of how many named storms there are, let us remain level headed and not bring in unproven narratives cloaked as truths.  Instead lets focus on what is actually happening in front of us.  
Yes completely agree and now that I think about it I should have mentioned that in the opening post.

The general use of Named Storms (e.g., counts, named storm days etc. ) as a metric of seasonal TC activity is no longer widely used in the scientific sphere, mostly due to what you mentioned, the dramatic improvements to the spatial coverage, precision, and availability of remote observations globally.

Further, the separation between early, post-satellite, and even modern day era IBTrACS data is also well discussed and a known limitation to our ability to correlate modern seasonal activity to historical activity. Modern day IBTrACS data still has uncertainty associated with it.

Atlantic HURDAT Database Uncertainty (Landsea et al. 2013): https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/10/mwr-d-12-00254.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display

Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts (Landsea et al. 2010):
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/10/2009jcli3034.1.xml

Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis data (Truchelet and Hart 2011):
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL046756

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 (Chris Landsea):
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2007EO180001
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Post by sroc4 Yesterday at 5:50 am

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Two_atl_2d0

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Yesterday at 6:38 am

Th MDR is still warm but you can see has certainly tempered a little.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 Today at 10:11 am

https://news.yahoo.com/first-tropical-storm-warning-hurricane-122105136.html
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