NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

+9
cooladi
algae888
HeresL
docstox12
Math23x7
amugs
aiannone
Quietace
Frank_Wx
13 posters

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:56 pm

Models are picking up on more qpf, and if it falls hard enough, snow could stick to non-paved surfaces.

18z GFS snow map...

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  70904fe511cf36f1fd531cb0dd6686ac_zps117db883

Not a big deal, but nonetheless our first widespread snow showers/flurries event of the season What a Face Very Happy Laughing

Timing: 5am-10am (heaviest precip.)

How much: Less than 1 inch, only sticking to grass and trees (Long Island could see pockets of 1+ inches).





Last edited by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:58 pm; edited 1 time in total
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:56 pm

I will post updates on what 00z models say in here as well
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:47 pm

At 50 degrees right now, dew point is 29. Temperature will rapidly drop over night.
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3671
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:58 pm

Yea if we are expecting snow by 6am, temps are going to have to drop very quickly!
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:16 pm

00z NAM not impressed with accumulations, but still shows snow falling in the air tomorrow morning.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM not impressed with accumulations, but still shows snow falling in the air tomorrow morning.
Temperatures are pretty warm on the NAM during the event. Not many places get below freezing except NW suburbs.
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3671
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:21 pm

ehh, i would rather pay attention to more of the short term models, rather than the NAM at this point.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:28 pm

0z HRRR is a little more aggressive than the NAM....lol i love how im using aggressive to talk about a half inch of snow
November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Hrrr_s10
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3671
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:35 pm

7  months since the last snow flakes so yes you can use the term aggressive Ace!! And screw the NAM!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 14204
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 53
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:36 pm

Haha we all are desperate. Give us SOMETHING
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:56 pm

wow....
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=rap_jet%3A&runTime=2013111200&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:01 pm

here is the latest snowfall accumulations from the RAP
November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Acsnw_10
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:03 pm

I've never liked these short range hi-res models. We'll see how it plays out.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:05 pm

Mets2695 wrote:here is the latest snowfall accumulations from the RAP
November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Acsnw_10
I see 3 inches for Monmouth and ocean counties their lol.  Rolling Eyes 
Probably way over done QPF in my eyes.
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3671
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:07 pm

I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:10 pm

One thing to take notice of is that the moisture moving behind the front is currently crawling. It's moving much slower than expected. Moisture should only increase as it gets to the coast and with the slower movement i am reluctant to say it will be a quick 2 hour thing.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:15 pm

Impressive indeed Alex

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  4baed017bd7d877c52e8d780f4187400_zpsf6a9e0be
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:16 pm

Do you agree with the slower timing and maybe more precip?
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:22 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Do you agree with the slower timing and maybe more precip?
Timing should be still around 7am. Precip won't be more than .20-.40 IMO.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:23 pm

True. How fast are temps supposed to drop when the front clears. Its 52 right now, which makes it hard to believe it will be snowing by 7am.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:25 pm

Mets2695 wrote:True. How fast are temps supposed to drop when the front clears. Its 52 right now, which makes it hard to believe it will be snowing by 7am.
850 line is in northwest CT. Crashing fast.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by aiannone Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:26 pm

Do you have a good radar that shows the exact location of the front. Intellicast is terrible. It updates like every 6 hours.
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4537
Reputation : 92
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:30 pm

Yes, here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Fool around with settings on the right side.
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Quietace Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.
Btw, Ill be sitting on my front porch with my ruler ready
Quietace
Quietace
Meteorologist - Mod
Meteorologist - Mod

Posts : 3671
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 25
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:33 pm

Quietace wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.
Btw, Ill be sitting on my front porch with my ruler ready
I know what fake snow looks like. Can't fool me

Here is radar without virga

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  E6ae5bb89c02e8575b161aefd7eae684_zps65fe60bf
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20842
Reputation : 327
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 30
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions  Empty Re: November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 3 1, 2, 3  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum