November 12th Morning Snow Observations/Discussions

Models are picking up on more qpf, and if it falls hard enough, snow could stick to non-paved surfaces.

18z GFS snow map...



Not a big deal, but nonetheless our first widespread snow showers/flurries event of the season   

Timing: 5am-10am (heaviest precip.)

How much: Less than 1 inch, only sticking to grass and trees (Long Island could see pockets of 1+ inches).

I will post updates on what 00z models say in here as well

At 50 degrees right now, dew point is 29. Temperature will rapidly drop over night.

Yea if we are expecting snow by 6am, temps are going to have to drop very quickly!

00z NAM not impressed with accumulations, but still shows snow falling in the air tomorrow morning.

Frank_Wx wrote:00z NAM not impressed with accumulations, but still shows snow falling in the air tomorrow morning.

Temperatures are pretty warm on the NAM during the event. Not many places get below freezing except NW suburbs.

ehh, i would rather pay attention to more of the short term models, rather than the NAM at this point.

0z HRRR is a little more aggressive than the NAM....lol i love how im using aggressive to talk about a half inch of snow

7  months since the last snow flakes so yes you can use the term aggressive Ace!! And screw the NAM!!

Haha we all are desperate. Give us SOMETHING

wow....
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=rap_jet%3A&runTime=2013111200&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP+Model+Fields+-+Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3

here is the latest snowfall accumulations from the RAP

I've never liked these short range hi-res models. We'll see how it plays out.

Mets2695 wrote:here is the latest snowfall accumulations from the RAP

I see 3 inches for Monmouth and ocean counties their lol.   
Probably way over done QPF in my eyes.

I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.

One thing to take notice of is that the moisture moving behind the front is currently crawling. It's moving much slower than expected. Moisture should only increase as it gets to the coast and with the slower movement i am reluctant to say it will be a quick 2 hour thing.

Impressive indeed Alex

Do you agree with the slower timing and maybe more precip?

Mets2695 wrote:Do you agree with the slower timing and maybe more precip?

Timing should be still around 7am. Precip won't be more than .20-.40 IMO.

True. How fast are temps supposed to drop when the front clears. Its 52 right now, which makes it hard to believe it will be snowing by 7am.

Mets2695 wrote:True. How fast are temps supposed to drop when the front clears. Its 52 right now, which makes it hard to believe it will be snowing by 7am.

850 line is in northwest CT. Crashing fast.

Do you have a good radar that shows the exact location of the front. Intellicast is terrible. It updates like every 6 hours.

Yes, here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16

Fool around with settings on the right side.

Frank_Wx wrote:I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.

Btw, Ill be sitting on my front porch with my ruler ready

Quietace wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:I'll ride my bike to the moon naked if Ace gets 3 inches.

Btw, Ill be sitting on my front porch with my ruler ready

I know what fake snow looks like. Can't fool me

Here is radar without virga