1/16/13 Storm Observation, Snow Totals Thread

[Frank_Wx]

We can discuss the remaining 12z suites in here as well. I wanted to get the thread up before I leave for work. GFS is remaining consistent on a warmer solution with this storm, while the NAM/EURO say otherwise. The NAM at 12z did warm a bit with the 850's, but it is still cold at the surface, which leaves me to believe there could be significant ice falling for some people in portions of NJ, near NYC. Here is EPAWA's final snow map...



I think I am going to make an ice map later tonight. I'll see what models are saying by then. We will use this thread for post-storm as well to include snow totals.

Nowcasting time!

[NjWeatherGuy]

On the WRF run the surface freezing line remains in the far northern part of NJ with the rest of us in the mid-upper 30s depending on where you live. With a torch at the 1000-500mb level. However the 850s are below freezing from I-95 north on the 12z WRF run which to me I'm thinking is a sleet/rain mix.

[aiannone]

Wow check this out!!

https://m.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Frapidrefresh.noaa.gov%2FRAP%2FjsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi%3FdsKeys%3Drap_dev1%253A%26runTime%3D2013011519%26plotName%3Dacsnw_t3sfc%26fcstInc%3D60%26numFcsts%3D19%26model%3Drr%26ptitle%3DRAP%2BModel%2BFields%2B-%2BExperimental%26maxFcstLen%3D18%26fcstStrLen%3D-1%26resizePlot%3D1%26domain%3Dt3&h=8AQFvSLAd&s=1

[Frank_Wx]

Please read my latest blog, which look at the areas where ice is possible. Here is the map. I will be back later on, got stuff to do now.

http://epawablogs.com/concerned-about-ice-havoc-wednesday-morning/

[NjWeatherGuy]

How I wish that RAP would be true but I can't buy it.

[Frank_Wx]

Lots of ice on radar

[NjWeatherGuy]

Looks elevation driven, I would expect that to thin out dramatically as it comes towards us. I am not liking current SFC temperatures and how the layers of the atmosphere look for those marginal areas around I-95. Still thinking NNJ event only.

[Frank_Wx]

I like our map. NNJ is where we have accumulations. Areas like Newark will see everything from ice, snow, and rain. Even freezing rain. Messy storm that's for sure. Just remember, 2 days ago it was shown staying way south. So this is better then nothing. Lol

[aiannone]

32 degree line dropping south as virga does its magic and quickly at that....
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=swbt

[NjWeatherGuy]

850s going the wrong direction.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=850mb

[Frank_Wx]

850s going the wrong direction.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=850mb

As precip moves in, it will drop. If you read my blog, NAM model shows that's happening.

[aiannone]

Um 0z Nam says "Wait, hold on, i am seeing snow for you coastal weenies!"
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/481316_4741621810989_1367747976_n.jpg

[NjWeatherGuy]

If that run is right I'll never doubt you snow weenies again but I really think the NAM just had too many beers tonight don't think that's going to happen.

[Frank_Wx]

If that run is right I'll never doubt you snow weenies again but I really think the NAM just had too many beers tonight don't think that's going to happen.

Lol.

Don't you think it's crazy though how consistent the NAM has been, but also how consistent the GFS has been. Truly a battle of the models...

[aiannone]

I believe in surprises especially when storms occur at night and in the middle of January.

[aiannone]

What model are you leaning towards Frank?

[NjWeatherGuy]

If this turns out the way many weather forecasters and myself are thinking I think the GFS takes the cake with this one.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Was consistent with the northern solution however the CMC was the first to show a storm at all, but soon as it got in range and models showed it the GFS locked in fastest.

[aiannone]

Rockaway NJ reporting Snow.

[aiannone]

Snowing lightly with sleet here

[Noreaster]

Euro/gfs compromise is always the safest bet Alex. With that said, mix to rain for coast is most likely imo.

[Noreaster]

Hopefull heavy preip comes in quickly so we have some evaporation cooling before temps rise.

[Noreaster]

Light rain/sleet 37*..DP 26*

[aiannone]

where r u located again?

[Math23x7]

Sleet here in Queens

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