Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
+7
amugs
NjWeatherGuy
HectorO
docstox12
Quietace
CPcantmeasuresnow
Frank_Wx
11 posters
Page 1 of 2 • 1, 2
Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Pretty potent coastal storm will being mainly rain to the area on Sunday. If this system were delayed by just 12 hours, it could have been a sizeable snow event for the area since cold air would be in place. Alas, that is not the case but there is a chance areas north and west of NYC could see backend snow. Backend snow never works out, but it's worth tracking.
12z NAM is nearly 2 inches of rain for the area. Don't forget, there is no blocking so this is a quick moving storm.
6z GFS also showing decent rain
The 00z euro though takes the storm more east and allows cold air to get closer to the coast, so a changeover does occur for areas in eastern PA and right around the Hudson Valley. More like an ice/snow mix though.
The MJO being in phase 6 does not help matters. This supports a southeast ridge to amplify which is why most of us will be seeing rain this go around.
I do think the pattern changes with the AO, PNA, and maybe NAO (this is the wildcard) once we get into early January. There is a lot of energy pivoting around the polar vortex in south central Canada and some phasing could spark a pretty good storm. Models will all be having a difficult time trying to forecast early January.
12z NAM is nearly 2 inches of rain for the area. Don't forget, there is no blocking so this is a quick moving storm.
6z GFS also showing decent rain
The 00z euro though takes the storm more east and allows cold air to get closer to the coast, so a changeover does occur for areas in eastern PA and right around the Hudson Valley. More like an ice/snow mix though.
The MJO being in phase 6 does not help matters. This supports a southeast ridge to amplify which is why most of us will be seeing rain this go around.
I do think the pattern changes with the AO, PNA, and maybe NAO (this is the wildcard) once we get into early January. There is a lot of energy pivoting around the polar vortex in south central Canada and some phasing could spark a pretty good storm. Models will all be having a difficult time trying to forecast early January.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Frank:
As per the 12Z GFS this looks close enough for the HV to at least get some snow out of it. It's not going to take that much of a jog eastward to have this a 4 plus event for the HV.
I don't rule out the coast yet, but not likely from anything I've seen. But the Euro was further east which is a good trend.
As per the 12Z GFS this looks close enough for the HV to at least get some snow out of it. It's not going to take that much of a jog eastward to have this a 4 plus event for the HV.
I don't rule out the coast yet, but not likely from anything I've seen. But the Euro was further east which is a good trend.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
12z euro is not that impressed. A lot of this comes once the low bombs out near New England. Maybe a coating to 2 inches is possible around the HV area, but I'm betting against it right now. Setup is awful.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Definitely not a good setup right now, but it's still 3 days out.
50 miles north of midtown where I am I do still hold out some hope. I'll wait till tomorrows 12Z before I write it off completely.
50 miles north of midtown where I am I do still hold out some hope. I'll wait till tomorrows 12Z before I write it off completely.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Well, for people NW of 1-95, they need to hope and pray for a strong LP, with some decently heavy precipitation getting thrown back into the area.
Per the 12z Euro, 2m temps are a few degrees above freezing in the whole area (33 to 35 around the coast), and 850s are crashing from 1-2 Celsius down to -1 in the northern burbs first as precip moves in. If the NW burbs get 850s to get below 0C and get heavy precip with a well organized low to cool the lower levels, they might have a chance. The coast has no chance with this but the NW people might have a small chance, if what i stated above happens.
Its more of a wildcard.
But as Frank said, setup is not good, and it is improbable at a significant amount of snow with this system.
Per the 12z Euro, 2m temps are a few degrees above freezing in the whole area (33 to 35 around the coast), and 850s are crashing from 1-2 Celsius down to -1 in the northern burbs first as precip moves in. If the NW burbs get 850s to get below 0C and get heavy precip with a well organized low to cool the lower levels, they might have a chance. The coast has no chance with this but the NW people might have a small chance, if what i stated above happens.
Its more of a wildcard.
But as Frank said, setup is not good, and it is improbable at a significant amount of snow with this system.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 27
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
No problem if it stays all rain, can't stand the slop storms.All rain or all snow PLEASE.Paul Pasternak on Accuweather sees that storm Frank is looking at the Jan 3-6 period.We'll get back into snow again soon even if this weekend is a stinker.
We need the rain anyway, after the bone dry conditions this fall.
We need the rain anyway, after the bone dry conditions this fall.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
I've had enough rain. Yes, fall was dry, but December was a nice start with snow and all. Then the end of the month was a disappointment. Next week looks different though.
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 959
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
The cold air looks to be a late arrival with this one, mostly rain, odd to have a coastal storm with no cold air this time of year but stranger things have happened.
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
As the old saying goes a Day late and a dollar short! Without any type of blocking or cold air to work with write this one off and let's look forward to really good snow possibilities from jan1 on. Just one man's opinion.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Right, Mugsy, lot's of winter left to enjoy snow events.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Timing:
Starts Sunday around 2pm
Ends Sunday night around midnight
1-2 inches of rain
15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times
Blah.
Starts Sunday around 2pm
Ends Sunday night around midnight
1-2 inches of rain
15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times
Blah.
_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Frank_Wx wrote:Timing:
Starts Sunday around 2pm
Ends Sunday night around midnight
1-2 inches of rain
15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times
Blah.
Thanks for the update kid but again the blizzard that was being tossed around by the models a week ago and on Monday for NYE is early to the party - giving us ......RAIN......BLAH is right but I love the pattern setup after this event.
A good day to stay inside and watch the last week of football in front of my fireplace with a some homemade Bailey's and Egg Nog!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
amugs wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Timing:
Starts Sunday around 2pm
Ends Sunday night around midnight
1-2 inches of rain
15-25 mph winds, gusts 30 mph at times
Blah.
Thanks for the update kid but again the blizzard that was being tossed around by the models a week ago and on Monday for NYE is early to the party - giving us ......RAIN......BLAH is right but I love the pattern setup after this event.
A good day to stay inside and watch the last week of football in front of my fireplace with a some homemade Bailey's and Egg Nog!!
Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!
_________________
Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
- Posts : 4892
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 62
Location : Westwood, NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!
[/quote]
Watching those Packers, Zoo. Rogers is supposedly back.
nofoboater- Posts : 319
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-08-19
Location : Aquebogue, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Its amazing when we talk rain 1-2 inches like nothing But when its a snow event we pray for .5 liquid !!
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1103
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2013-01-16
Age : 78
Location : Port Jefferson Station Suffolk County
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
nofoboater wrote:
Baileys and eggnog and football.....I'm with you!
Watching those Packers, Zoo. Rogers is supposedly back.[/quote]
Should be interesting to see how he stands up after that long layoff.Will he be accurate?
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
I'm officially giving up on this one for the HV.
As Tom has said earlier and it's why I have had a hard time dismissing this one, it is hard me to believe a coastal this time of year can't find some cold air to work with. However the timing and the path this takes before it reaches the Jersey coast are all terrible.
Bring on the JETS!!!
As Tom has said earlier and it's why I have had a hard time dismissing this one, it is hard me to believe a coastal this time of year can't find some cold air to work with. However the timing and the path this takes before it reaches the Jersey coast are all terrible.
Bring on the JETS!!!
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Courtesy of NWS State College:Clarify the term Nor"easter
Nor'easters can be classified into one of two categories, named after the researcher (J.E. Miller) who first came up with this classification system for East Coast snow storms in 1946:
1) Nor'easters that develop primarily on the Gulf Coast or East Coast along an old cold front, or along the marine/land airmass contrast found on the East Coast, could be considered "classic" Nor'easters. Storms that develop in this manner are referred to as "Miller Type-A" storms. The "Superstorm of March 1993" is considered to have been a "Miller Type-A" storm.
2) Storms that come in from the west (up the Ohio Valley) are usually referred to as "Miller Type-B" storms. These storms produce precipitation in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and have a defined surface low that is moving toward the Appalachian Mountains from the west. As these storms approach the mountains, they lose their coherent/compact surface low center and the low re-develops along the East Coast. When this re-development (a.k.a. "center-jump") happens, the storm can still produce snow over all of the state. But, it will usually produce the most/heaviest/longest snow in NE PA (Potter Co. and east).
Storms that approach from the west ("Miller Type-B") typically move through Pennsylvania faster than Nor'easters, and produce a widespread and more-evenly distributed snowfall (everyone gets a similar amount) versus the "Miller Type-A" storms, and Lake Effect events.
Nor'easters can be classified into one of two categories, named after the researcher (J.E. Miller) who first came up with this classification system for East Coast snow storms in 1946:
1) Nor'easters that develop primarily on the Gulf Coast or East Coast along an old cold front, or along the marine/land airmass contrast found on the East Coast, could be considered "classic" Nor'easters. Storms that develop in this manner are referred to as "Miller Type-A" storms. The "Superstorm of March 1993" is considered to have been a "Miller Type-A" storm.
2) Storms that come in from the west (up the Ohio Valley) are usually referred to as "Miller Type-B" storms. These storms produce precipitation in the Midwest/Ohio Valley and have a defined surface low that is moving toward the Appalachian Mountains from the west. As these storms approach the mountains, they lose their coherent/compact surface low center and the low re-develops along the East Coast. When this re-development (a.k.a. "center-jump") happens, the storm can still produce snow over all of the state. But, it will usually produce the most/heaviest/longest snow in NE PA (Potter Co. and east).
Storms that approach from the west ("Miller Type-B") typically move through Pennsylvania faster than Nor'easters, and produce a widespread and more-evenly distributed snowfall (everyone gets a similar amount) versus the "Miller Type-A" storms, and Lake Effect events.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I'm officially giving up on this one for the HV.
As Tom has said earlier and it's why I have had a hard time dismissing this one, it is hard me to believe a coastal this time of year can't find some cold air to work with. However the timing and the path this takes before it reaches the Jersey coast are all terrible.
Bring on the JETS!!!
CP, just looked at NWS forecast for this weekends storm.They are saying a possibility of 1-2 inches of back end snow for Orange County.I'll be there.Maybe we can salvage a few inches for the yearly total up there.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Doc and CP here you go.....................Looks like Upton is starting to change their tune about tomorrow evening for the interior.
UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW ISOTHERMAL THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...FOR THE INTERIOR
AREAS. IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE
AROUND 00-03Z...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD
ACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS
UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW ISOTHERMAL THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...FOR THE INTERIOR
AREAS. IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE
AROUND 00-03Z...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD
ACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Radar is getting more impressive down south.
Hope you Hv folks get a few inches up their.
Hope you Hv folks get a few inches up their.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
- Posts : 3687
Reputation : 33
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 27
Location : Point Pleasant, NJ
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
It would be nice Ace but I'm not counting on it.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
Quietace wrote:Radar is getting more impressive down south.
Hope you Hv folks get a few inches up their.
Incredible radar this morning.There was your major snowstorm but no cold air.Perfect low track, right from the Gulf.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 8507
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
One other problem Doc is it's not a perfect low track after it leaves the gulf, goes over land much of the way and passes almost over NYC. Tha's not a good track for us even if there was some cold air around to tap.
Several days ago some models had this going off Delmarva and then near the benchmark, that's when I held out some hope that HV would get some decent snow out of this even without cold air masses to tap. Winds would have been NE to NNE and temperatures up here may have stayed near freezing especially with a stronger low.
Not the case now and hasn't been for several days.
Several days ago some models had this going off Delmarva and then near the benchmark, that's when I held out some hope that HV would get some decent snow out of this even without cold air masses to tap. Winds would have been NE to NNE and temperatures up here may have stayed near freezing especially with a stronger low.
Not the case now and hasn't been for several days.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
- Posts : 7274
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY
Re: Sunday 12/29 Nor'easter Thread
storm is moving quicker than forcast. precip already ending in del. rain looks to end by 6 in nyc metro. I don't think there is any chance of a changeover anywhere.
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
- Posts : 5311
Reputation : 46
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 61
Location : mt. vernon, new york
Page 1 of 2 • 1, 2
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
|
|